Georgia · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Georgia State Senate?

All 56 seats are on the ballot. 29 seats make a majority. 38 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Georgia State Senate (99%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

99%

Avg. D seats: 24.380% range 23–26
Avg. R seats: 31.780% range 30–33
Now: 22 D · 33 R · 1 vacant56 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (38+ seats): under 1% each.

Republicans are clearly favored to control the Georgia State Senate (95%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

95%

Avg. D seats: 25.380% range 23–28
Avg. R seats: 30.780% range 28–33
Now: 22 D · 33 R · 1 vacant56 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (38+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 56 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D23

Show 17 more

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-48risk

Lean R1

SD-37

Likely R4

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Solid D23

Show 17 more

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-48risk

Lean R3

Likely R6

Solid R23

Show 17 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Georgia

Atlanta

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-48Laura MurvartianShawn StillFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 22%55%Dem.58%Dem. SD-37Darcy CastroEd SetzlerRunoff 20%68%Rep.62%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-48Laura MurvartianShawn StillFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 22%55%to flip58%to flip SD-37Darcy CastroEd SetzlerRunoff 20%32%to flip38%to flip SD-42Eric W. Lee, Sr.Bret A. DunnRunoff 10%12%to flip18%to flip SD-56Patrick ThompsonJohn AlbersRunoff 8%10%to flip28%to flip SD-32Michael HettigKay KirkpatrickRunoff 5%6%to flip23%to flip SD-46Ray SmithMarc McMainRunoff 5%5%to flip9%to flip SD-1Corey ForemanBen WatsonRunoff 5%5%to flip17%to flip SD-23Shayna BostonMax BurnsRunoff 3%3%to flip10%to flip SD-45Scott TippettsClint DixonRunoff 2%3%to flip15%to flip SD-47Justin GillespieFrank GinnRunoff 2%2%to flip6%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Runoff if no majority

A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

56 races, 20 without a contest between the major parties.

56 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1Runoff 5%	● Corey Foreman● Ben WatsonINC	5%95% 17%83%	R+13.7R+9.1	Solid RLikely R	R+14	—
SD-2	● Derek J. MallowINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
SD-3	● No Democrat● Mike HodgesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
SD-4	● No Democrat● Billy HickmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+35	—
SD-5	● Sheikh RahmanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+37	—
SD-6	● JerMarkus A. Jacobs● Matt BrassINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.6R+35.9	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
SD-7	● Ruwa Romman● Aizaz Shahbaz Shaikh	>99%1% 97%3%	D+23.2D+20.4	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
SD-8	● No Democrat● Russ GoodmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
SD-9	● Nikki MerrittINC● Michael Johnson	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.8D+25.7	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
SD-10	● Larry Johnson● Furquan Stafford	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.7D+74.2	Solid DSolid D	D+70	—
SD-11	● No Democrat● Sam WatsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
SD-12	● Edward Brown● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
SD-13	● No Democrat● Carden H. SummersINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+42	—
SD-14	● Kevin Abel● Mike Dvorscak	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.0D+25.7	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
SD-15	● Tremaine "Teddy" Reese● Chuck Hand	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.7D+34.3	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
SD-16Runoff 1%	● Sonya Wimberly Hawkins● Marty HarbinINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.5R+21.0	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-17	● Gail DavenportINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
SD-18	● No Democrat● Steven McNeelINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+22	—
SD-19	● Joshua C. Wilkerson● David Sikes	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.4R+48.5	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
SD-20	● No Democrat● Larry WalkerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—
SD-21	● Kori Simmons● Jason T. DickersonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.4R+27.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
SD-22	● Harold V. Jones IIINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+41	—
SD-23Runoff 3%	● Shayna Boston● Max BurnsINC	3%97% 10%90%	R+14.8R+12.6	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
SD-24	● Lorraine V. Thomas● Lee AndersonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.0R+32.0	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
SD-25	● No Democrat● Rick A. WilliamsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+24	—
SD-26	● David E. LucasINC● Tracy Wheeler	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+34.3D+29.4	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
SD-27	● Jessica Roper● Mike Dudgeon	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.2R+32.5	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
SD-28	● Donzella JamesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
SD-29Runoff <1%	● Jeff Lowe● Randy RobertsonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+21.4R+21.3	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-30	● Wanda Cooper● Timothy J. BeardenINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
SD-31	● Alec Miller● Jason R. AnavitarteINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.4R+26.5	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
SD-32Runoff 5%	● Michael Hettig● Kay KirkpatrickINC	6%94% 23%77%	R+13.2R+7.1	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
SD-33	● Michael Doc RhettINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
SD-34	● Kenya WicksINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+64	—
SD-35	● Jaha V. HowardINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+57	—
SD-36	● Nan Grogan OrrockINC● Katie Corkren	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+72.4D+82.0	Solid DSolid D	D+78	—
SD-37Runoff 20%	● Darcy Castro● Ed SetzlerINC	32%68% 38%62%	R+3.5R+2.9	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
SD-38	● Rashaun KempINC● Eric Helvy	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+57.9D+60.9	Solid DSolid D	D+56	—
SD-39	● Sonya HalpernINC● John F. Guest, Jr.	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.9D+75.1	Solid DSolid D	D+71	—
SD-40	● Sally HarrellINC● Melina R. Mast	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.4D+34.3	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
SD-41	● Kim JacksonINC● Jeff Newlin	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+64.9D+69.3	Solid DSolid D	D+65	—
SD-42Runoff 10%	● Eric W. Lee, Sr.● Bret A. Dunn	12%88% 18%82%	R+8.8R+9.0	Likely RLikely R	R+13	—
SD-43	● Tonya P. AndersonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+53	—
SD-44	● Saira Draper● Ngozi Orabueze	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+73.7D+82.4	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
SD-45Runoff 2%	● Scott Tippetts● Clint DixonINC	3%97% 15%85%	R+17.4R+10.0	Solid RLikely R	R+15	—
SD-46Runoff 5%	● Ray Smith● Marc McMain	5%95% 9%91%	R+12.5R+12.9	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
SD-47Runoff 2%	● Justin Gillespie● Frank GinnINC	2%98% 6%94%	R+16.2R+15.2	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
SD-48Flip riskFlip riskRunoff 22%	● Laura Murvartian● Shawn StillINC	55%45% 58%42%	D+1.0D+2.0	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
SD-49	● William Wallace● Drew EcholsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.3R+39.5	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
SD-50	● Dave Cooper● Bo HatchettINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.0R+60.3	Solid RSolid R	R+64	—
SD-51	● Gary St. Lawrence● Will Wade	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+54.8R+60.8	Solid RSolid R	R+65	—
SD-52	● No Democrat● Chuck HufstetlerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+48	—
SD-53	● John Bentley "Jack" Zibluk● Lanny ThomasINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.2R+54.3	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
SD-54	● No Democrat● Chuck PayneINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
SD-55	● Randal ManghamINC● Mary Williams Benefield	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.2D+59.7	Solid DSolid D	D+55	—
SD-56Runoff 8%	● Patrick Thompson● John AlbersINC	10%90% 28%72%	R+10.6R+5.8	Likely RLean R	R+13	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.