Wyoming · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Wyoming State Senate?

16 of 31 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 16 seats make a majority. 21 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Wyoming State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 2.180% range 2–3
Avg. R seats: 28.980% range 28–29
Now: 2 D · 29 R16 up this year

Republican supermajority now (29 of 31 seats; 21 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

2 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party29 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Wyoming State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 2.180% range 2–3
Avg. R seats: 28.980% range 28–29
Now: 2 D · 29 R16 up this year

Republican supermajority now (29 of 31 seats; 21 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

2 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party29 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 16 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D2

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

SD-7

Solid R13

Show 7 more

Solid D2

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

SD-7

Solid R13

Show 7 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

No race is closer than Likely (80%).

Most likely to flip

SD-7Jim LeeMark Rinne14%to flip10%to flip SD-31Shifa HamidEvie Brennan<1%to flip1%to flip SD-5Ted HanlonLauren Schoenfeld<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-11Jim WilsonBob Davis<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

16 of 31 seats on the ballot; 15 holdovers (0 D, 15 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

16 races, 12 without a contest between the major parties.

16 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● No Democrat● Ogden DriskillINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+85	—
SD-3	● No Democrat● Cheri SteinmetzINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
SD-5	● Ted Hanlon● Lauren Schoenfeld	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.4R+35.4	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
SD-7	● Jim Lee● Mark Rinne	14%86% 10%90%	R+7.6R+12.2	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
SD-9	● Chris RothfussINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+20	—
SD-11	● Jim Wilson● Bob Davis	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+47.9R+57.5	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—
SD-13	● No Democrat● Stacy JonesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
SD-15	● No Democrat● Wendy Davis SchulerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+65	—
SD-17	● Mike GierauINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
SD-19	● No Democrat● R. J. Kost	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
SD-21	● No Democrat● Melissa Butcher	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+48	—
SD-23	● No Democrat● Abby Angelos	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+85	—
SD-25	● No Democrat● Cale CaseINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+8	—
SD-27	● No Democrat● Kevin Helling	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+47	—
SD-29	● No Democrat● Lisa Engebretsen	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+52	—
SD-31	● Shifa Hamid● Evie BrennanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.9R+26.6	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).