Florida · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Florida in 2026

Florida elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a treasurer, all 28 members of the U.S. House, 20 of 40 members of the State Senate and all 120 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 2 statewide offices · 28 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate (special): R 82%R 80%Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody
Governor: R 72%R 71%David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds
U.S. House: 8.7 D · 19.3 R9.4 D · 18.6 RExpected seats of 28 · 1 toss-up
Florida State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 20 of 40 seats up
Florida House of Representatives: R 97%R 96%Chance of control · 120 of 120 seats up
Attorney General: R 82%R 73%José Javier Rodríguez vs. James Uthmeier
Treasurer: R 80%R 64%Annette Taddeo vs. Blaise Ingoglia

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
Legislature
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Florida

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 29%
Rep. trifecta: 71%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (71%); 29% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 30%
Rep. trifecta: 70%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (70%); 30% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate (special) · Special

Likely RLikely R

● Angie Nixon● Ashley MoodyINC

18%82%

20%80%

Governor

Lean RLean R

● David Jolly● Byron Donalds

28%72%

29%71%

Statewide offices

Attorney General

Likely RLean R

● José Javier Rodríguez● James UthmeierINC

18%82%

27%73%

Treasurer

Likely RLean R

● Annette Taddeo● Blaise IngogliaINC

20%80%

36%64%

Ratings

Lean R1

Governor

Likely R3

Lean R3

Likely R1

U.S. Senate (special)

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

The Florida environment

The environment Florida's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Florida state offices vs. the nation: −1.1± 3.8 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
Florida state-office environment: D+8.41.1 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Florida environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

28 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D4

Likely D1

FL-25

Lean D1

FL-14

Toss-up1

FL-22

Lean R6

Likely R8

Solid R7

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R7

Likely R10

Solid R3

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

Miami

28 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
FL-1	● Gay Valimont● Jimmy PatronisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.6R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
FL-2	● Amanda Green● Austin Rogers	13%87% 16%84%	R+8.0R+8.8	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
FL-3	● Seth Harp● Kat CammackINC	3%97% 9%91%	R+13.2R+11.6	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
FL-4Flip risk	● LaShonda Holloway● Aaron BeanINC	26%74% 43%57%	R+4.4R+1.5	Lean RToss-up	R+9	—
FL-5	● Rachel Grage● John RutherfordINC	5%95% 9%91%	R+12.0R+12.0	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
FL-6	● Eric Yonce● Randy FineINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.5R+21.9	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
FL-7	● Bale Dalton● Ryan Elijah	36%64% 34%66%	R+2.4R+3.6	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
FL-8	● Jennifer Jenkins● Mike HaridopolosINC	8%92% 14%86%	R+8.3R+7.6	Likely RLikely R	R+15	2
FL-9R flipR flip	● Darren SotoINC● Dan Green	28%72% 21%79%	R+3.6R+6.1	Lean RLean R	R+15	1
FL-10	● Maxwell FrostINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
FL-11	● James Pericola● Joe Strada	15%85% 20%80%	R+6.3R+6.2	Likely RLikely R	R+14	1
FL-12	● Kimberly Overman● Gus BilirakisINC	15%85% 25%75%	R+7.1R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
FL-13	● Leela Gray● Anna Paulina LunaINC	25%75% 33%67%	R+3.9R+2.8	Lean RLean R	R+12	5
FL-14	● Kathy CastorINC● Mike Beltran	72%28% 64%36%	D+3.8D+2.9	Lean DLean D	R+9	1
FL-15	● Robert People● Laurel LeeINC	3%97% 12%88%	R+12.9R+10.2	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
FL-16	● Kelly Kirschner● Sydney Gruters	22%78% 23%77%	R+4.6R+5.1	Lean RLean R	R+13	2
FL-17	● Matthew Montavon● Greg SteubeINC	3%97% 8%92%	R+13.9R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
FL-18	● Curtis Gibson● Scott FranklinINC	7%93% 16%84%	R+10.4R+8.7	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
FL-19	● Victor Arias● Jim Schwartzel	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.5R+21.7	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
FL-20	● Debbie Wasserman SchultzINC● Brent Andersen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.5D+48.0	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
FL-21	● James Martin● Brian MastINC	7%93% 17%83%	R+10.1R+8.5	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
FL-22	● Pia Dandiya● Casey Askar	51%49% 46%54%	D+0.2R+0.7	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	2
FL-23	● Lois FrankelINC● Deborah Adeimy	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.9D+23.0	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
FL-24	● Oliver Gilbert● Te Mayonna Brown	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.3D+51.7	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
FL-25	● Jared MoskowitzINC● Scott Singer	81%19% 69%31%	D+5.9D+4.2	Likely DLean D	R+6	1
FL-26	● Nicole Locklin● Mario Díaz-BalartINC	20%80% 25%75%	R+6.7R+6.6	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
FL-27	● Eliott Rodriguez● María Elvira SalazarINC	23%77% 29%71%	R+5.0R+4.4	Lean RLean R	R+11	3
FL-28	● Phil Ehr● Carlos GiménezINC	5%95% 9%91%	R+13.2R+13.7	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Florida Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Florida State Senate

Avg. 13 D – 27 R seats · 21 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 58%

Avg. 13 D – 27 R seats · 21 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 54%

20 of 40 seats up; 20 holdovers.

Full forecast

Florida State Senate ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up1

SD-38risk

Lean R1

SD-18

Likely R2

Solid R8

Solid D4

Likely D2

Lean D1

SD-10flip

Toss-up2

Lean R1

SD-18

Likely R5

Solid R5

Florida House of Representatives

Dem.

Rep.

97%

Avg. 47 D – 74 R seats · 61 for control · R supermajority now: 19% it holds

Dem.

Rep.

96%

Avg. 47 D – 73 R seats · 61 for control · R supermajority now: 16% it holds

Full forecast

Florida House of Representatives ratings

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D, 1 D→R. 8 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Likely D4

Lean D5

Toss-up7

Lean R8

Likely R15

Solid R49

Solid D26

Likely D8

Lean D7

Toss-up9

Lean R9

Likely R14

Solid R47

Closest legislative races

HD-100Michael Terence FergusonYoni AnijarFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Rep. HD-22Amy TraskChad JohnsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Dem. HD-91Luis GarciaPeggy Gossett-SeidmanFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.51%Rep. HD-36Darryl BlockRachel PlakonFlip riskD flip54%Dem.65%Dem. HD-35Eric GrayErika BoothFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.55%Dem. HD-39Jarod FoxDoug BanksonFlip riskFlip risk56%Dem.59%Dem.

HD-65Ben BraverKaren Gonzalez PittmanFlip riskD flip57%Rep.62%Dem. SD-38Richard LamondinAlexis CalatayudFlip riskFlip risk60%Rep.59%Rep. HD-87Emily GregoryJon MaplesR flip60%Dem.67%Rep. HD-73Lisa KleinFiona McFarlandFlip risk63%Rep.50%Rep. SD-10John LowndesJason BrodeurD flipD flip67%Dem.70%Dem. HD-61May ThachLinda ChaneyFlip risk69%Rep.59%Rep.

How Florida votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.

20 of 40 seats on the ballot; 20 holdovers (5 D, 15 R) serve until a later election.

Unopposed races skip the ballot

A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.