Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon · 2026 forecast · Pacific region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon in 2026
Oregon elects a U.S. senator and a governor, all 6 members of the U.S. House, 15 of 30 members of the State Senate and all 60 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 6 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D 98%D 97%Jeff Merkley vs. David Brock Smith
- Governor
- D 66%D 68%Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan + 1 more
- U.S. House
- 5.0 D · 1.0 R4.8 D · 1.2 RExpected seats of 6
- Oregon State Senate
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 15 of 30 seats up
- Oregon House of Representatives
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 60 of 60 seats up
U.S. House districts · Oregon
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 66%
- Divided
- 34%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (66%); 34% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 67%
- Divided
- 33%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (67%); 33% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Oregon environment
The environment Oregon's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Oregon state offices vs. the nation
- −2.8± 4.1 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- Oregon state-office environment
- D+6.72.8 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Oregon environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
6 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Portland
6 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-1 | ● Suzanne BonamiciINC● Barbara Kahl | D+44.5D+40.6 | D+39 | — | ||
| OR-2 | ● Chris Beck● Cliff BentzINC | R+22.9R+22.6 | R+27 | — | ||
| OR-3 | ● Maxine DexterINC● Loran Ayles | D+52.0D+50.3 | D+48 | — | ||
| OR-4 | ● Val HoyleINC● Monique DeSpain | D+17.7D+14.6 | D+13 | — | ||
| OR-5 | ● Janelle BynumINC● Patti Adair | D+13.9D+11.5 | D+9 | — | ||
| OR-6 | ● Andrea SalinasINC● David Russ | D+20.7D+15.0 | D+12 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
Oregon Legislative Assembly
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Oregon State Senate
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 19 D – 11 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 41%
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 19 D – 11 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 43%
15 of 30 seats up; 15 holdovers.
Full forecastOregon State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Oregon House of Representatives
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 39 D – 21 R seats · 31 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 29%
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 39 D – 21 R seats · 31 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 41%
Oregon House of Representatives ratings
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
SD-16Rachel ArmitageCourtney Bangs63%Rep.61%Rep. HD-21Michael WelshKevin L MannixD flipD flip65%Dem.82%Dem. SD-26Nicole BassettJeff Helfrich78%Rep.70%Rep. HD-15Joanna RobinsonShelly Boshart Davis81%Rep.63%Rep. SD-11Virginia StapletonTracy CramerD flipD flip83%Dem.83%Dem. HD-12Amber SmithDarin Harbick87%Rep.72%Rep.
How Oregon votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
15 of 30 seats on the ballot; 15 holdovers (7 D, 8 R) serve until a later election.
Two-thirds quorum
Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).