Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
19 of 38 seats on the ballot; 19 holdovers (5 D, 14 R) serve until a later election.
Kentucky · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Kentucky State Senate?
19 of 38 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 20 seats make a majority. 20 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Kentucky State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 6.980% range 6–8
- Avg. R seats
- 31.180% range 30–32
- Now
- 6 D · 32 R19 up this year
Republican supermajority now (32 of 38 seats; 20 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party32 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the Kentucky State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 7.180% range 6–8
- Avg. R seats
- 30.980% range 30–32
- Now
- 6 D · 32 R19 up this year
Republican supermajority now (32 of 38 seats; 20 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party32 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 19 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Kentucky
Louisville
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
SD-36Sarah Cole McIntoshJulie Raque AdamsFlip riskD flip51%to flip70%to flip SD-6Christian FurmanLindsey Tichenor22%to flip25%to flip SD-34Jessica D. McIntoshJared K. Carpenter13%to flip8%to flip SD-20Stella R. PollardGex "jay" Williams4%to flip2%to flip SD-24Joshua BakerShelley "Funke" Frommeyer3%to flip2%to flip SD-10Christopher GatrostMatt Deneen1%to flip2%to flip SD-8Vicki QuisenberryGary M. Boswell<1%to flip1%to flip SD-14Carrie Gribbins TruittBen Mudd<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-26Karen A. BergEverett C. Corley<1%to flip1%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
19 races, 10 without a contest between the major parties.
19 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-2 | ● No Democrat● Danny CarrollINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+47 | — | |
| SD-4 | ● No Democrat● Robert M. "Robby" MillsINCAlso: Janyna Lynn Russelburg (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+44 | — | |
| SD-6 | ● Christian Furman● Lindsey TichenorINC | R+6.3R+6.2 | R+12 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● Vicki Quisenberry● Gary M. BoswellINC | R+23.5R+28.9 | R+35 | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● Christopher Gatrost● Matt DeneenINC | R+21.2R+22.9 | R+29 | — | ||
| SD-12 | ● No Democrat● Amanda Mays BledsoeINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+16 | — | |
| SD-14 | ● Carrie Gribbins Truitt● Ben Mudd | R+34.1R+42.9 | R+48 | — | ||
| SD-16 | ● No Democrat● George Maxwell "Max" WiseINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+53 | — | |
| SD-18 | ● No Democrat● Robin L. WebbINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+49 | — | |
| SD-20 | ● Stella R. Pollard● Gex "jay" WilliamsINC | R+13.5R+23.0 | R+29 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● No Democrat● Donald R. DouglasINCAlso: Michael Wieland French (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+19 | — | |
| SD-24 | ● Joshua Baker● Shelley "Funke" FrommeyerINC | R+15.1R+20.8 | R+27 | — | ||
| SD-26 | ● Karen A. BergINC● Everett C. Corley | D+35.1D+27.5 | D+21 | — | ||
| SD-28 | ● No Democrat● Greg ElkinsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+25 | — | |
| SD-30 | ● No Democrat● Brandon D. SmithINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+62 | — | |
| SD-32 | ● No Democrat● Mike WilsonINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+38 | — | |
| SD-34 | ● Jessica D. McIntosh● Jared K. CarpenterINC | R+8.3R+13.4 | R+20 | — | ||
| SD-36Flip riskD flip | ● Sarah Cole McIntosh● Julie Raque AdamsINC | D+0.2D+4.9 | R+2 | — | ||
| SD-38 | ● No Democrat● Mike NemesINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+41 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).