New Mexico · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the New Mexico House of Representatives?
All 70 seats are on the ballot. 36 seats make a majority. 47 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the New Mexico House of Representatives (>99%).
- Avg. D seats
- 47.080% range 44–49
- Avg. R seats
- 23.080% range 21–26
- Now
- 42 D · 26 R · 2 vacant70 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (47+ seats): 61%
42 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party26 R now
Democrats are very likely to control the New Mexico House of Representatives (>99%).
- Avg. D seats
- 47.580% range 44–50
- Avg. R seats
- 22.580% range 20–26
- Now
- 42 D · 26 R · 2 vacant70 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (47+ seats): 70%
42 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party26 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 70 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D42
Toss-up1
Lean R1
Solid D39
Toss-up1
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
New Mexico
Albuquerque
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
70 races, 38 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1 | ● No Democrat● Rod MontoyaINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+51 | — | |
| HD-2 | ● No Democrat● Mark DuncanINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+38 | — | |
| HD-3 | ● No Democrat● Bill HallINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+54 | — | |
| HD-4 | ● Joseph Franklin HernandezINC● Heather Scott Ellison | D+16.3D+12.2 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-5 | ● Doreen Wonda JohnsonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-6 | ● Martha GarciaINC● Paul L. Spencer | D+24.2D+23.1 | D+18 | — | ||
| HD-7 | ● Rickie Allen Gonzales II● Tanya Mirabal MoyaINC | R+12.5R+6.6 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-8 | ● Katherine Joanna Gauer● Brian BacaINC | R+19.7R+12.8 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-9 | ● Patricia LundstromINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| HD-10 | ● G. Andrés RomeroINC● Christopher P. Crane | D+29.4D+22.9 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-11 | ● Javier MartínezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+52 | — | |
| HD-12 | ● Art De La CruzINC● Steven E. Tafoya | D+35.2D+29.2 | D+22 | — | ||
| HD-13 | ● Patricia Roybal CaballeroINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+18 | — | |
| HD-14 | ● Miguel GarciaINC● Richard Victor Zubia | D+44.2D+45.2 | D+39 | — | ||
| HD-15 | ● Dayan Hochman-VigilINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-16 | ● Yanira GurrolaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+22 | — | |
| HD-17 | ● Cynthia BorregoINC● Stacey Deanne Rich | D+19.7D+18.0 | D+12 | — | ||
| HD-18 | ● Marianna AnayaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+68 | — | |
| HD-19 | ● Janelle AnyanonuINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+46 | — | |
| HD-20 | ● Meredith DixonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+16 | — | |
| HD-21 | ● Debra M. SariñanaINC● Robert L. MasonAlso: Zach Withers (I) | D+31.9D+25.5 | D+20 | — | ||
| HD-22 | ● Bill Scott● Stefani LordINC | R+6.5R+4.6 | R+10 | — | ||
| HD-23 | ● No Democrat● Alan MartinezINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+3 | — | |
| HD-24 | ● Elizabeth ThomsonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+22 | — | |
| HD-25 | ● Cristina ParajónINC● Denis Litvinenko | D+43.5D+45.9 | D+40 | — | ||
| HD-26 | ● Eleanor ChávezINC● Corey Rubin Zimmerman | D+26.1D+24.7 | D+18 | — | ||
| HD-27 | ● Abby Foster● Jahnelle Louise Garcia | D+19.8D+21.8 | D+15 | — | ||
| HD-28 | ● Pamelya HerndonINC● Brenda J. Olson | D+23.0D+22.1 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-29 | ● Joy GarrattINC● Carolyn Stith | D+20.8D+19.2 | D+13 | — | ||
| HD-30 | ● Diane Torres-VelásquezINC● Jerry L. Trujillo | D+20.8D+22.5 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-31D flipD flip | ● Ryan Anselm Braid● Nicole ChavezINC | D+7.6D+13.9 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-32 | ● Laura Mairel Parra● Jenifer JonesINC | R+13.6R+11.6 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-33 | ● Micaela Lara CadenaINC● Enrique Kiki Vigil | D+30.5D+24.2 | D+19 | — | ||
| HD-34 | ● Raymundo LaraINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+13 | — | |
| HD-35 | ● Angelica RubioINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — | |
| HD-36 | ● Nathan SmallINC● Julia E. Ruiz | D+13.0D+10.0 | D+5 | — | ||
| HD-37 | ● Lori A. Martinez● Isabella Solis | D+24.5D+20.5 | D+15 | — | ||
| HD-38Flip riskD flip | ● David L. Mooney● Rebecca DowINC | R+1.0D+2.6 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-39D flipD flip | ● Raul S. Turrieta● Luis TerrazasINC | D+3.5D+9.6 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-40 | ● Joseph SanchezINC● Landon McGuire Dooley | D+22.3D+19.3 | D+14 | — | ||
| HD-41 | ● Yolanda "Pancho" Jaramillo● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+23 | — | |
| HD-42 | ● Kristina OrtezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+50 | — | |
| HD-43 | ● Christine ChandlerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-44 | ● Kathleen CatesINC● Adam Stanley Prior | D+17.2D+15.5 | D+9 | — | ||
| HD-45 | ● Linda SerratoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+52 | — | |
| HD-46 | ● Andrea RomeroINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+55 | — | |
| HD-47 | ● Reena SzczepanskiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+65 | — | |
| HD-48 | ● Tara LujanINC● Victoria May Garcia | D+58.9D+62.9 | D+58 | — | ||
| HD-49 | ● No Democrat● Gail ArmstrongINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+23 | — | |
| HD-50 | ● Sarah Boses● Kenneth Donald Brennan | D+29.1D+30.8 | D+25 | — | ||
| HD-51 | ● No Democrat● John BlockINCAlso: Zach Withers (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+23 | — | |
| HD-52 | ● Doreen GallegosINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+20 | — | |
| HD-53 | ● Sarah SilvaINC● Ben Luna Jr. | D+11.9D+8.6 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-54 | ● No Democrat● Jonathan HenryINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+56 | — | |
| HD-55 | ● No Democrat● Cathrynn BrownINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+56 | — | |
| HD-56 | ● No Democrat● Harlan VincentINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+37 | — | |
| HD-57D flipD flip | ● Chriselle Verene Martinez● Catherine CullenINC | D+2.5D+6.3 | Even | — | ||
| HD-58 | ● No Democrat● Angelita MejiaINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+37 | — | |
| HD-59 | ● No Democrat● Stephen Ryan Dodson | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+46 | — | |
| HD-60Flip risk | ● Luke Nicholas Jungmann● Joshua HernandezINC | R+3.5D+0.5 | R+6 | — | ||
| HD-61 | ● No Democrat● Randall PettigrewINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+48 | — | |
| HD-62 | ● No Democrat● Elaine Sena CortezINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+66 | — | |
| HD-63 | ● No Democrat● Seth H. Martin | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+24 | — | |
| HD-64 | ● No Democrat● Andrea ReebINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+52 | — | |
| HD-65 | ● Derrick LenteINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+40 | — | |
| HD-66 | ● No Democrat● Leanne Gandy | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+55 | — | |
| HD-67 | ● Vincent M. Soule● Jack ChatfieldINC | R+36.0R+35.8 | R+41 | — | ||
| HD-68 | ● Charlotte LittleINC● David E. Adkins | D+13.5D+12.8 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-69 | ● Michelle Paulene AbeytaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| HD-70 | ● Anita GonzalesINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).