Texas · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Texas House of Representatives?

All 150 seats are on the ballot. 76 seats make a majority. 100 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto. November candidates are not yet compiled for 1 race; they are forecast for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.

1 of 150 races has no compiled candidate list yet. Those seats are forecast for their current party against a generic challenger, marked TBD below.

Republicans are clearly favored to control the Texas House of Representatives (86%).

Democrats

14%

chance of control

Republicans

86%

Avg. D seats: 69.580% range 63–77
Avg. R seats: 80.580% range 73–87
Now: 62 D · 86 R · 2 vacant150 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (100+ seats): under 1% each.

Republicans are favored to control the Texas House of Representatives (73%).

Democrats

27%

chance of control

Republicans

73%

Avg. D seats: 71.880% range 63–81
Avg. R seats: 78.280% range 69–87
Now: 62 D · 86 R · 2 vacant150 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (100+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 150 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 6 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Likely D3

Lean D1

HD-34flip

Toss-up6

Lean R4

Likely R18

Solid R58

Show 52 more

Likely D6

Lean D6

Toss-up4

Lean R11

Likely R18

Solid R50

Show 44 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Texas

Houston

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-138Tyler SmithLacey HullFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.54%Rep. HD-112Zach HerbertAngie Chen ButtonFlip riskD flip53%Dem.67%Dem. HD-94Katie O'Brien DuzanCheryl BeanFlip risk53%Dem.63%Rep. HD-121Zach DunnMarc LaHoodFlip riskD flip53%Rep.61%Dem. HD-37Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa, Jr.Janie LopezFlip riskD flip54%Rep.61%Dem. HD-108Allison MitchellMorgan MeyerFlip riskD flip58%Rep.62%Dem. HD-52Chris JimenezCaroline Harris DavilaFlip risk65%Rep.55%Rep. HD-96Ebony M. TurnerEllen Fleischmann68%Rep.68%Rep. HD-34Stephanie Guerrero SaenzDenise VillalobosD flipD flip74%Dem.87%Dem. HD-63Denise WootenBen Bumgarner75%Rep.64%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-118Kristian CarranzaJorge BorregoD flipD flip86%to flip68%to flip HD-34Stephanie Guerrero SaenzDenise VillalobosD flipD flip74%to flip87%to flip HD-94Katie O'Brien DuzanCheryl BeanFlip risk53%to flip37%to flip HD-112Zach HerbertAngie Chen ButtonFlip riskD flip53%to flip67%to flip HD-138Tyler SmithLacey HullFlip riskFlip risk48%to flip46%to flip HD-121Zach DunnMarc LaHoodFlip riskD flip47%to flip61%to flip HD-37Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa, Jr.Janie LopezFlip riskD flip46%to flip61%to flip HD-108Allison MitchellMorgan MeyerFlip riskD flip42%to flip62%to flip HD-52Chris JimenezCaroline Harris DavilaFlip risk35%to flip45%to flip HD-96Ebony M. TurnerEllen Fleischmann32%to flip32%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

150 races, 17 without a contest between the major parties.

150 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Sean Huffman● Chris Spencer	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.7R+49.3	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-2	● Fatima La'Juan Muse● Brent MoneyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.2R+57.6	Solid RSolid R	R+62	—
HD-3	● Nicole King● Kristen Plaisance	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.3R+47.9	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
HD-4	● Mark A. Moseley● Keith BellINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.8R+31.3	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-5	● Hector Garza● Cole HefnerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.6R+59.7	Solid RSolid R	R+64	—
HD-6	● Lorenzo Johnson● Daniel AldersINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.0R+35.1	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-7	● Fantasha Allen● Jay DeanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.7R+39.8	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-8	● Jeff Chavez● Cody HarrisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.0R+55.7	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
HD-9	● Shelly Tatum● Rocky Thigpen	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.7R+52.0	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-10	● Michael Myers● Brian HarrisonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+30.4R+27.1	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-11	● Roxanne Lathan● Joanne ShofnerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.3R+50.6	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
HD-12	● Andie Ho● Trey WhartonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.7R+42.9	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-13	● Albert Hunter● Angelia OrrINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.5R+44.7	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-14	● Janet Tycelia Dudding● Paul DysonINCAlso: Jeff Miller (L)	4%96% 10%90%	R+14.1R+12.7	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-15	● Moniqua S. Scott● Brad BaileyAlso: Jessi Cowart (L)	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+24.9R+21.0	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-16	● Bobbie Clayton● Will MetcalfINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.1R+51.3	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-17	● Mary Elizabeth Klenz● Stan GerdesINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.6R+25.6	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-18	● Valorie Barton● Janis HoltINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.8R+61.2	Solid RSolid R	R+66	—
HD-19	● Tom Luck● Ellen TroxclairINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.4R+36.2	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-20	● Matthias-Jonah Early● Terry WilsonINC	8%92% 18%82%	R+10.6R+8.7	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-21	● Jacqueline "Jacky" Hernandez● Ray Callas	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.5R+52.9	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-22	● Christian ManuelINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+14	—
HD-23	● Cheryl Lynn Clark● Terri Leo-WilsonINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+23.3R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-24	● Frank N. Carr● Greg BonnenINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.9R+29.0	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-25	● Mike Meadors● Cody VasutINC	3%97% 8%92%	R+15.2R+14.0	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-26	● Elizabeth "Eliz" Markowitz● Matt MorganINC	8%92% 18%82%	R+10.9R+8.8	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-27	● Ron ReynoldsINC● Max Alalibo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.4D+43.8	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
HD-28	● Sandy Ibanez● Gary GatesINC	10%90% 14%86%	R+9.4R+10.2	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-29	● Karen Reeder● Jeff BarryINC	2%98% 8%92%	R+16.0R+14.2	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-30	● Crystal Sedillo● AJ LouderbackINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.2R+48.4	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-31	● Jennifer "JJ" Dominguez● Ryan GuillenINC	<1%>99% 2%99%	R+27.4R+24.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-32	● Gabriel Lazano Marroquin● Todd HunterINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+21.7R+17.7	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-33	● Orlando Lopez● Katrina PiersonINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+23.0R+18.6	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-34D flipD flip	● Stephanie Guerrero Saenz● Denise VillalobosINC	74%26% 87%13%	D+5.5D+11.7	Lean DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-35	● Oscar LongoriaINC● Oscar Rosa	98%2% 85%15%	D+21.2D+11.3	Solid DLikely D	R+1	—
HD-36	● Sergio MuñozINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	R+1	—
HD-37Flip riskD flip	● Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa, Jr.● Janie LopezINC	46%54% 61%39%	R+0.8D+2.8	Toss-upLean D	R+8	—
HD-38	● Erin GamezINC● Laura E. Cisneros	99%1% 95%5%	D+27.6D+18.1	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-39	● Armando MartinezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+3	—
HD-40	● Terry CanalesINC● Celeste Cabrera-Huff	99%1% 95%5%	D+25.7D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+6	—
HD-41	● Julio Salinas● Gary Groves	87%13% 91%9%	D+9.8D+14.2	Likely DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-42	● Richard RaymondINC● Teresa Johnson-Hernandez	>99%1% 94%6%	D+28.6D+17.7	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-43	● Jeffrey T. Jackson● José Manuel LozanoINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.4R+22.1	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-44	● Eric Norman● Alan SchoolcraftINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.2R+25.3	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-45	● Erin ZwienerINC● Tennyson G. Moreno	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.3D+20.6	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-46	● Sheryl ColeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-47	● Pooja Sethi● Jennifer Mushtaler	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.5D+30.0	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-48	● Donna HowardINC● Anthony Gupta	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+49.0D+48.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-49	● Montserrat Garibay● No RepublicanAlso: Arshia Papari (G)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+63	—
HD-50	● Samantha Lopez Resendez● Howard Olsen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+54.2D+55.6	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
HD-51	● Lulu FloresINC● Jessica Martinez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+60.7D+63.4	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
HD-52Flip risk	● Chris Jimenez● Caroline Harris DavilaINC	35%65% 45%55%	R+2.8R+1.1	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-53	● Kathryn Hartmann● Wes VirdellINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.2R+50.4	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-54	● Dawn Richardson● Brad BuckleyINC	8%92% 20%80%	R+11.2R+7.9	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
HD-55	● Amelia Rabroker● Hillary HicklandINC	10%90% 18%82%	R+9.2R+8.9	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-56	● Ashley Bean Thornton● Pat CurryINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.8R+29.3	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-57	● Ray Stith● Richard HayesINCAlso: Darren Hamilton (L)	5%95% 12%88%	R+13.4R+11.1	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-58	● Chris Oldham● Helen KerwinINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.8R+48.3	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-59	● Andrew Turner● Shelby SlawsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.4R+54.0	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
HD-60	● Krissy Guess● Mike OlcottINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+57.4R+62.6	Solid RSolid R	R+67	—
HD-61	● Brittany Black● Keresa RichardsonINCAlso: Anissa Chilmeran (G)	10%90% 24%76%	R+10.3R+7.0	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
HD-62	● Catherine Thorne● Shelley LutherINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.1R+52.4	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-63	● Denise Wooten● Ben BumgarnerINC	25%75% 36%64%	R+4.9R+3.3	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-64	● Julie Evans● Andy HopperINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+20.1R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-65	● Detrick Beburr● Mitch LittleINC	9%91% 18%82%	R+9.9R+8.8	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-66	● Sandeep Srivastava● Matt ShaheenINC	12%88% 25%75%	R+8.8R+6.5	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-67	● Jordan Wheatley● Jeff LeachINC	10%90% 24%76%	R+10.3R+6.8	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-68	● Jasmine Henderson● David SpillerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+61.2R+68.5	Solid RSolid R	R+73	—
HD-69	● Leilani Barnett● James FrankINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.4R+50.1	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
HD-70	● Mihaela PlesaINC● George Flint	98%2% 90%10%	D+16.4D+13.1	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-71	● Diana Luna● Jay Hardaway	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.0R+50.0	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
HD-72	● Shiloh Salazar● Drew DarbyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.4R+50.8	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-73	● Merrie Fox● Carrie IsaacINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.2R+33.4	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-74Flip risk	● Eddie MoralesINC● Robert Garza	83%17% 54%46%	D+8.6D+0.9	Likely DToss-up	R+10	—
HD-75	● Mary GonzálezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+12	—
HD-76	● Suleman LalaniINC● Linda Howell	99%1% 96%4%	D+22.1D+18.7	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-77	● Vincent PerezINC● Humberto Perez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.2D+45.9	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
HD-78	● Joe MoodyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+13	—
HD-79	● Claudia OrdazINC● Jesus Romero	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.8D+33.8	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-80	● Cecilia Castellano● Don McLaughlinINC	11%89% 24%76%	R+10.3R+7.3	Likely RLean R	R+19	—
HD-81	● Ceasar Sanchez● Brooks LandgrafINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.4R+48.7	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-82	● Cathy Broadrick● Tom CraddickINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+50.5R+55.3	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—
HD-83	● Malik Williams● Dustin BurrowsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+49.5R+51.0	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-84	● Maggie Durham● Carl TepperINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+18.8R+18.6	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-85	● Lawrence Brandyburg● Dennis "Goose" Geesaman	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.4R+36.9	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-86	● Cullin Knutson● Holly Jeffreys	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+49.9R+57.0	Solid RSolid R	R+62	—
HD-87	● Diana Loya● Caroline FairlyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.1R+52.3	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-88	● Heather J. Wallace● Ken KingINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+58.8R+65.3	Solid RSolid R	R+70	—
HD-89	● Angie Carraway● Candy NobleINC	7%93% 16%84%	R+11.0R+9.6	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-90TBD	● No candidate● No candidate	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.7D+37.8	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-91	● Yisak Worku● David LoweINC	1%99% 6%94%	R+20.6R+15.2	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
HD-92	● Salman BhojaniINC● J.P. Woodruff	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+32.6D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-93	● Ericka Lomick● Alan Blaylock	7%93% 12%88%	R+11.1R+11.5	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-94Flip risk	● Katie O'Brien Duzan● Cheryl Bean	53%47% 37%63%	D+0.6R+3.0	Toss-upLean R	R+10	—
HD-95	● Nicole CollierINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+45	—
HD-96	● Ebony M. Turner● Ellen Fleischmann	32%68% 32%68%	R+3.4R+4.4	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-97	● Beth Llwellyn McLaughlin● John McQueeneyINC	19%81% 35%65%	R+6.6R+3.5	Likely RLean R	R+10	—
HD-98	● Cate Brennan● Armin Mizani	1%99% 4%96%	R+18.3R+18.7	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-99	● Michelle Winder● Charlie GerenINC	3%97% 9%91%	R+15.6R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-100	● Venton JonesINC● Jordan Scott Hoffnagle	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+65.2D+69.1	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
HD-101	● Junior Ezeonu● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-102	● Ana-Maria RamosINC● Bonnie Abadie	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.6D+29.8	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-103	● Rafael AnchíaINC● Melanie Medley-Thomas	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.1D+45.1	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
HD-104	● Jessica GonzálezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
HD-105	● Terry MezaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+10	—
HD-106	● Joe Mayes● Jared PattersonINC	5%95% 14%86%	R+13.4R+10.5	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-107	● Linda GarciaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+22	—
HD-108Flip riskD flip	● Allison Mitchell● Morgan MeyerINC	42%58% 62%38%	R+1.6D+3.2	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
HD-109	● Aicha DavisINC● Will Campbell	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.9D+60.4	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
HD-110	● Toni RoseINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+61	—
HD-111	● Yvonne DavisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+54	—
HD-112Flip riskD flip	● Zach Herbert● Angie Chen ButtonINC	53%47% 67%33%	D+0.5D+4.2	Toss-upLean D	R+3	—
HD-113	● Rhetta BowersINC● Stephen W. Stanley	>99%<1% 98%3%	D+24.1D+20.9	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-114	● John BryantINC● Tim McDonough	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.8D+37.9	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-115	● Cassandra HernandezINC● Danny Rosellini	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.1D+20.8	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-116	● Trey Martinez FischerINC● Rhett Rosenquest Smith	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.9D+37.3	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-117	● Philip CortezINC● Ben Mostyn	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.8D+23.0	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-118D flipD flip	● Kristian Carranza● Jorge Borrego	86%14% 68%32%	D+8.4D+4.4	Likely DLean D	R+2	—
HD-119	● Elizabeth CamposINC● Melva Perez	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.8D+29.7	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-120	● Barbara Gervin-HawkinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-121Flip riskD flip	● Zach Dunn● Marc LaHoodINC	47%53% 61%39%	R+0.6D+2.7	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
HD-122	● Shelly Nickels● Mark DorazioINC	15%85% 33%67%	R+8.3R+4.2	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-123	● Diego BernalINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-124	● Josey GarciaINC● Sylvia Soto	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.9D+33.3	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-125	● Andrian Reyna● Ricardo Martinez	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.3D+24.6	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-126	● Stephanie Bord● Stan Stanart	4%96% 11%89%	R+14.3R+12.1	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-127	● Michelle Williams● Charles CunninghamINC	9%91% 16%84%	R+10.2R+9.5	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-128	● Desiree Klaus● Tom Butler	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.4R+32.2	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-129	● Albert Wittliff● Scott Bowen	16%84% 14%86%	R+7.2R+10.4	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-130	● Brett Robinson● Tom OliversonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.7R+28.0	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-131	● Staci Childs● Scott Whitmarsh	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+57.8D+58.2	Solid DSolid D	D+52	—
HD-132	● Sara McGee● Mike SchofieldINC	16%84% 22%78%	R+7.4R+7.5	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
HD-133Flip risk	● Josh Wallenstein● Mano DeAyalaINC	21%79% 52%48%	R+6.7D+0.4	Lean RToss-up	R+6	—
HD-134	● Ann JohnsonINC● Mike Michna	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.9D+33.4	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-135	● Odus Evbagharu● Liz Ramos	99%1% 96%4%	D+25.0D+18.2	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-136	● John Bucy IIIINC● Theodore Schramm	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.5D+30.9	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-137	● Gene WuINC● Helen Zhou	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.3D+29.0	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-138Flip riskFlip risk	● Tyler Smith● Lacey HullINC	48%52% 46%54%	R+0.4R+1.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+8	—
HD-139	● Charlene Ward JohnsonINC● Kyle Harding	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.7D+47.9	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
HD-140	● Armando WalleINC● Lucia Garcia DeLeon	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.7D+30.1	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-141	● Senfronia ThompsonINC● Julie Hunt	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.2D+61.3	Solid DSolid D	D+55	—
HD-142	● Harold Dutton Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
HD-143	● Ana HernandezINC● Frank Salazar	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+33.6D+24.9	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-144	● Mary Ann PerezINC● David Flores	98%2% 79%21%	D+20.2D+8.4	Solid DLean D	D+1	—
HD-145	● Christina MoralesINC● Inocensia Moreno	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.6D+42.5	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
HD-146	● Lauren Ashley SimmonsINC● Alexandria Nicole Butler	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.2D+62.2	Solid DSolid D	D+56	—
HD-147	● Jolanda JonesINC● Theodis Daniel	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.3D+60.2	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
HD-148	● Penny Morales ShawINC● Amanda LaBrie	99%1% 95%5%	D+21.2D+17.7	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-149	● Darlene Breaux● Dave Bennett	99%1% 97%3%	D+21.9D+21.4	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-150	● A'Yonna Kellum● Valoree SwansonINC	7%93% 15%85%	R+11.5R+9.9	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.