California · 2026 forecast · Pacific region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

California in 2026

California elects a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 52 members of the U.S. House, 20 of 40 members of the State Senate and all 80 members of the State Assembly on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 5 statewide offices · 52 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

Governor: D >99%D >99%Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
U.S. House: 47.4 D · 4.6 R46.9 D · 5.1 RExpected seats of 52
California State Senate: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 20 of 40 seats up
California State Assembly: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 80 of 80 seats up
Lieutenant Governor: D >99%D 99%Fiona Ma vs. Gloria Romero
Attorney General: D >99%D 99%Rob Bonta vs. Michael Gates
Secretary of State: D >99%D 99%Shirley Weber vs. Don Wagner
Treasurer: D >99%D 99%Eleni Kounalakis vs. Jennifer Hawks
Auditor: D >99%D 99%Malia Cohen vs. Herb Morgan

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
Legislature
Election rules

U.S. House districts · California

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Democratic trifecta now

Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

Governor

Solid DSolid D

● Xavier Becerra● Steve Hilton

>99%<1%

Statewide offices

Lieutenant Governor

Solid DSolid D

● Fiona Ma● Gloria Romero

>99%<1%

99%1%

Attorney General

Solid DSolid D

● Rob BontaINC● Michael Gates

>99%<1%

99%1%

Secretary of State

Solid DSolid D

● Shirley WeberINC● Don Wagner

>99%<1%

99%1%

Treasurer

Solid DSolid D

● Eleni Kounalakis● Jennifer Hawks

>99%<1%

99%1%

Auditor

Solid DSolid D

● Malia CohenINC● Herb Morgan

>99%<1%

99%1%

Ratings

Solid D6

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

The California environment

The environment California's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
California state offices vs. the nation: −0.6± 3.9 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
California state-office environment: D+8.90.6 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the California environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

52 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D45

Show 39 more

CA-2
CA-4
CA-7
CA-8
CA-9
CA-10
CA-11
CA-12
CA-14
CA-15
CA-16
CA-17
CA-18
CA-19
CA-24
CA-26
CA-27
CA-28
CA-29
CA-30
CA-31
CA-32
CA-33
CA-34
CA-35
CA-36
CA-37
CA-38
CA-39
CA-41
CA-42
CA-43
CA-44
CA-46
CA-47
CA-49
CA-50
CA-51
CA-52

Likely D2

Lean D1

CA-22flip

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R4

Solid D41

Show 35 more

CA-2
CA-4
CA-7
CA-8
CA-9
CA-10
CA-11
CA-12
CA-14
CA-15
CA-16
CA-17
CA-18
CA-19
CA-24
CA-26
CA-28
CA-29
CA-30
CA-31
CA-32
CA-33
CA-34
CA-36
CA-37
CA-38
CA-41
CA-42
CA-43
CA-44
CA-46
CA-49
CA-50
CA-51
CA-52

Likely D6

Lean D1

CA-22flip

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

Los Angeles

52 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
CA-1D flipD flip	● Mike McGuire● James GallagherINC	98%2% 97%3%	D+16.2D+18.8	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
CA-2	● Jared HuffmanINC● Robin Littau	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.4D+29.8	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
CA-3	● Ami BeraINC● Robb Tucker	99%1% 96%4%	D+18.5D+16.4	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
CA-4D vs D	● Mike ThompsonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Eric Jones (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+17	—
CA-5	● Michael Masuda● Tom McClintockINC	3%97% 8%92%	R+13.7R+13.0	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
CA-6D flipD flip	● Richard Pan● Kevin Kiley	86%14% 81%19%	D+8.5D+9.1	Likely DLikely D	D+10	2
CA-7D vs D	● Doris MatsuiINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mai Vang (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+15	1
CA-8	● John GaramendiINC● Rudy Recile	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.5D+41.1	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
CA-9	● Josh HarderINC● John McBride	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.7D+20.7	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
CA-10	● Mark DeSaulnierINC● Jeff Frese	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.5D+40.8	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
CA-11D vs D	● Scott Wiener● No RepublicanAlso: Connie Chan (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+72	3
CA-12D vs D	● Lateefah SimonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jamie Joyce (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+79	—
CA-13	● Adam GrayINC● Kevin Lincoln	95%5% 85%15%	D+13.0D+9.7	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
CA-14D vs D	● Aisha WahabINC● No RepublicanAlso: Melissa Hernandez (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+39	—
CA-15	● Kevin MullinINC● Charles Hoelter	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.3D+57.4	Solid DSolid D	D+52	—
CA-16	● Sam LiccardoINC● Peter Soulé	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.9D+56.0	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
CA-17	● Ro KhannaINC● Ritesh Tandon	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.4D+50.0	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
CA-18	● Zoe LofgrenINC● Shane Lewis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.0D+38.9	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
CA-19	● Jimmy PanettaINC● Peter Coe Verbica	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.5D+41.8	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
CA-20	● Sandra Van Scotter● Vince FongINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.0R+24.0	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
CA-21	● Jim CostaINC● Kyle Kirkland	99%1% 94%6%	D+19.0D+15.8	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
CA-22D flipD flip	● Randy Villegas● David ValadaoINC	75%25% 73%27%	D+5.3D+5.6	Lean DLean D	D+3	1
CA-23	● Tessa Lynn Hodge● Jay ObernolteINC	4%96% 12%88%	R+13.0R+10.6	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
CA-24	● Salud CarbajalINC● Bob Smith	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.8D+32.9	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
CA-25	● Raul RuizINC● Joe Males	98%2% 95%5%	D+17.3D+16.0	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
CA-26	● Jacqui Irwin● Sam Gallucci	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.9D+23.9	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
CA-27	● George WhitesidesINC● Jason Gibbs	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+21.8D+18.9	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
CA-28	● Judy ChuINC● April Verlato	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.7D+34.7	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
CA-29D vs D	● Luz RivasINC● No RepublicanAlso: Angelica Dueñas (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+39	—
CA-30	● Laura FriedmanINC● Scott Meyers	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.7D+48.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
CA-31	● Gil CisnerosINC● Eric Ching	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.5D+22.5	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
CA-32	● Brad ShermanINC● Larry Thompson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.4D+34.2	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
CA-33	● Pete AguilarINC● Stephanie Vargas	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.1D+20.2	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
CA-34D vs D	● Jimmy GomezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Angela Gonzales-Torres (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+56	2
CA-35	● Norma TorresINC● Mike Cargile	99%1% 96%4%	D+21.4D+17.9	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
CA-36	● Ted LieuINC● Houston Brignano	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.7D+48.5	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
CA-37D vs D	● Sydney Kamlager-DoveINC● No RepublicanAlso: Samantha Mota (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+65	—
CA-38	● Hilda Solis● Pedro Casas	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.3D+24.1	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
CA-39	● Mark TakanoINC● Steve Manos	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+22.0D+20.0	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
CA-40R vs R	● No Democrat● Young KimINCAlso: Ken Calvert (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+11	—
CA-41	● Linda SánchezINC● Mitch Clemmons	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.4D+24.3	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
CA-42	● Robert GarciaINC● Brian Burley	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.3D+21.5	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
CA-43	● Maxine WatersINC● Cristian Morales	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.0D+61.1	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
CA-44	● Nanette BarragánINC● Genevieve Angel	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.7D+47.8	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
CA-45	● Derek TranINC● Chuong Vo	98%2% 91%9%	D+15.3D+13.4	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
CA-46	● Lou CorreaINC● David Pan	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.5D+26.4	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
CA-47	● Dave MinINC● Jenny Le Roux	99%1% 97%3%	D+21.1D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
CA-48D flipD flip	● Marni von Wilpert● Jim Desmond	92%8% 89%11%	D+10.3D+11.0	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
CA-49	● Mike LevinINC● Armen Kurdian	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+21.7D+19.9	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
CA-50	● Scott PetersINC● Steve Cohen	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.0D+25.8	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
CA-51	● Sara JacobsINC● Ricardo Cabrera	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.7D+26.3	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
CA-52	● Juan VargasINC● Jeff Belle	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.2D+28.2	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

California Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

California State Senate

Avg. 32 D – 8 R seats · 21 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 32 D – 9 R seats · 21 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

20 of 40 seats up; 20 holdovers.

Full forecast

California State Senate ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D13

Likely D1

SD-40flip

Lean D1

SD-16

Toss-up1

SD-6risk

Lean R2

Likely R1

SD-32

Solid R1

Solid D12

Likely D2

Lean D1

SD-6flip

Toss-up2

Lean R1

SD-4

Likely R1

SD-32

Solid R1

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

California State Assembly

Avg. 65 D – 15 R seats · 41 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 65 D – 15 R seats · 41 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

California State Assembly ratings

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

7 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D.

Solid D58

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up1

AD-70risk

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R10

Solid D54

Likely D7

Lean D6

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R4

Solid R7

Closest legislative races

SD-6Sean FrameRoger NielloFlip riskD flip57%Rep.62%Dem. AD-70Paula SwiftTri TaFlip riskD flip59%Rep.62%Dem. SD-4Jaron BrandonAlexandra Duarte61%Rep.77%Rep. SD-36Chris DuncanTony StricklandFlip risk64%Rep.54%Dem. AD-36Ida Obeso-MartinezJeff GonzalezD flipD flip65%Dem.79%Dem. AD-7Amy SlavenskyJosh HooverD flipD flip66%Dem.81%Dem.

AD-72Chris KluweGracey Van Der MarkD flipD flip66%Dem.64%Dem. AD-74Sergio FariasLaurie DaviesD flipD flip67%Dem.79%Dem. AD-47Leila NamvarGreg WallisD flipD flip68%Dem.85%Dem. SD-16Melissa HurtadoGuillermo GonzalezFlip risk71%Dem.59%Rep. AD-58Clarissa CervantesLeticia CastilloD flipD flip81%Dem.87%Dem. AD-71JJ GalvezKate Sanchez85%Rep.73%Rep.

How California votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.

20 of 40 seats on the ballot; 20 holdovers (16 D, 4 R) serve until a later election.