Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (6 D, 19 R) serve until a later election.
Iowa · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa in 2026
Iowa elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 4 members of the U.S. House, 25 of 50 members of the State Senate and all 100 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 4 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- R 53%R 50%Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson
- Governor
- D 83%D 79%Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn
- U.S. House
- 2.0 D · 2.0 R1.8 D · 2.2 RExpected seats of 4 · 1 toss-up
- Iowa State Senate
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 25 of 50 seats up
- Iowa House of Representatives
- R 93%R 94%Chance of control · 100 of 100 seats up
- Attorney General
- R 64%D 61%Nathan Willems vs. Brenna Bird
- Secretary of State
- R 87%R 68%Ryan Peterman vs. Paul Pate
- Treasurer
- R 82%R 51%John Norwood vs. Roby Smith
- Auditor
- R 69%R 52%Taylor Wettach vs. Chris Cournoyer
U.S. House districts · Iowa
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 83%
- Rep. trifecta
- 17%
Projected change: divided government is most likely (83%); 17% chance the Republican trifecta holds.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 80%
- Rep. trifecta
- 20%
Projected change: divided government is most likely (80%); 20% chance the Republican trifecta holds.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney GeneralD flip
● Nathan Willems● Brenna BirdINC
Secretary of State
● Ryan Peterman● Paul PateINC
TreasurerFlip risk
● John Norwood● Roby SmithINC
AuditorR flipFlip risk
● Taylor Wettach● Chris Cournoyer
Ratings
Likely D1
Toss-up1
Lean R2
Likely R2
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
The Iowa environment
The environment Iowa's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Iowa state offices vs. the nation
- +1.4± 3.8 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
- Iowa state-office environment
- D+10.91.4 pts more Democratic than the nation
The polled state races behind it
A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Iowa environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
4 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Des Moines
4 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-1D flipD flip | ● Christina Bohannan● Mariannette Miller-MeeksINCAlso: Michael Bridgford (I) | D+3.2D+3.8 | R+7 | 1 | ||
| IA-2Flip riskFlip risk | ● Lindsay James● Joe Mitchell | D+0.3R+1.4 | R+9 | 2 | ||
| IA-3D flipD flip | ● Sarah Trone Garriott● Zach NunnINC | D+5.4D+4.2 | R+4 | 1 | ||
| IA-4 | ● David Dawson● Chris McGowan | R+19.0R+21.8 | R+31 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Iowa General Assembly
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Iowa State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 18 D – 32 R seats · 26 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 10%
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 17 D – 33 R seats · 26 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 31%
25 of 50 seats up; 25 holdovers.
Full forecastIowa State Senate ratings
2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Iowa House of Representatives
Dem.
7%
Rep.
93%
Avg. 42 D – 58 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: 3% it holds
Dem.
6%
Rep.
94%
Avg. 42 D – 58 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: 5% it holds
Iowa House of Representatives ratings
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 8 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
HD-46Mandy Newton RosenowDan GehlbachFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.52%Rep. HD-99Jennifer KirkmanMatthew RinkerFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Dem. HD-40Heather SieversBill GustoffFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.51%Dem. SD-47Nikhil WagleScott WebsterFlip riskFlip risk59%Dem.52%Rep. HD-94Karen RoebuckMike VondranFlip risk64%Rep.51%Rep. HD-69Randy MeierTom Determann64%Rep.63%Rep.
HD-52Mike TupperDavid BlomD flipFlip risk65%Dem.60%Dem. SD-41Tom WieckKerry Gruenhagen66%Rep.61%Rep. HD-19Benjamin Thomas LarsonBrent SiegristFlip risk66%Rep.54%Rep. SD-35Mike ZimmerJoe StuttingR flipR flip67%Rep.90%Rep. HD-59Jacob WelperChristian HermansonD flipD flip68%Dem.69%Dem. HD-83Mike BergmanCindy Golding69%Rep.62%Rep.
How Iowa votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.