District of Columbia · 2026 forecast · Mid-Atlantic region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
District of Columbia elects its non-voting delegate to the U.S. House and 7 of 13 members of the Council on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: 1 legislative chamber.
The environment District of Columbia's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
No governor, statewide or legislative race in District of Columbia is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the District of Columbia environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
District of Columbia Council
Avg. 11 D – 2 R seats · 7 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 11 D – 2 R seats · 7 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
7 of 13 seats up; 6 holdovers.
Full forecast1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
Solid D6
Solid D6
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
From 2026, voters rank up to five candidates in races with three or more candidates. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Four Council members are elected citywide, two at a time. No more than two of them may belong to the same party, so parties nominate one candidate per election and one of the two seats on the ballot usually goes to an independent or minor-party candidate.