North Dakota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the North Dakota State Senate?

24 of 47 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 24 seats make a majority. 32 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the North Dakota State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.780% range 5–9
Avg. R seats: 40.380% range 38–42
Now: 5 D · 42 R24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (42 of 47 seats; 32 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

5 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party42 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the North Dakota State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.880% range 5–9
Avg. R seats: 40.280% range 38–42
Now: 5 D · 42 R24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (42 of 47 seats; 32 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

5 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party42 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D3

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up2

Lean R2

Likely R1

LD-17

Solid R16

Show 10 more

Solid D3

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up2

Lean R2

Likely R1

LD-17

Solid R16

Show 10 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

North Dakota

Fargo

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-41Nyamal DeiKyle DavisonFlip riskFlip risk57%Rep.50%Rep. LD-43Mary K. AdamsJeff BartaFlip riskFlip risk59%Dem.53%Dem. LD-13Landis LarsonJudy Lee65%Rep.66%Rep. LD-45Dan MitchellRonald Sorvaag80%Rep.73%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-43Mary K. AdamsJeff BartaFlip riskFlip risk59%to flip53%to flip LD-41Nyamal DeiKyle DavisonFlip riskFlip risk43%to flip50%to flip LD-13Landis LarsonJudy Lee35%to flip34%to flip LD-45Dan MitchellRonald Sorvaag21%to flip27%to flip LD-17Katie BentonJonathan Sickler8%to flip11%to flip LD-35Dale PittmanSean D. Cleary2%to flip4%to flip LD-11Tim MathernChristine O'Riley<1%to flip4%to flip LD-25Bob HeitkampLarry Luick<1%to flip1%to flip LD-47Bill PatrieMichael Dwyer<1%to flip<1%to flip LD-3Michael ThiesenBob Paulson<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered terms in both chambers

Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.

24 of 47 seats on the ballot; 23 holdovers (2 D, 21 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

24 races, 9 without a contest between the major parties.

24 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-1	● No Democrat● Brad BekkedahlINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
LD-3	● Michael Thiesen● Bob PaulsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.9R+43.5	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
LD-5	● No Democrat● Jay Fisher	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+40	—
LD-7	● Kevin Horneman● Michelle AxtmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.4R+42.5	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
LD-9	● Jayme Davis● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
LD-11	● Tim MathernINC● Christine O'Riley	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+22.4D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
LD-13	● Landis Larson● Judy LeeINC	35%65% 34%66%	R+2.8R+3.8	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
LD-15	● No Democrat● Kristin Kenner	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+43	—
LD-17	● Katie Benton● Jonathan SicklerINC	8%92% 11%89%	R+10.1R+11.7	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
LD-19	● Jeff Hermanson● Janne MyrdalINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.7R+43.4	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
LD-21	● Mary Schneider● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+14	—
LD-23	● No Democrat● Todd BeardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
LD-25	● Bob Heitkamp● Larry LuickINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.1R+30.5	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
LD-27	● No Democrat● Kristin RoersINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+19	—
LD-29	● John Kelly● Terry WanzekINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.1R+44.2	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
LD-31	● Kelly Spilman● Donald SchaibleINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.2R+42.0	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
LD-33	● Signe Snortland● Keith BoehmINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+52.4R+62.3	Solid RSolid R	R+68	—
LD-35	● Dale Pittman● Sean D. ClearyINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.9R+17.8	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
LD-37	● No Democrat● Dean RummelINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+60	—
LD-39	● No Democrat● Greg KesselINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+73	—
LD-41Flip riskFlip risk	● Nyamal Dei● Kyle DavisonINC	43%57% 50%50%	R+1.2Even	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
LD-43Flip riskFlip risk	● Mary K. Adams● Jeff BartaINC	59%41% 53%47%	D+1.6D+0.6	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
LD-45	● Dan Mitchell● Ronald SorvaagINC	21%80% 27%73%	R+6.0R+5.9	Lean RLean R	R+13	—
LD-47	● Bill Patrie● Michael DwyerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.3R+31.6	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).