Senate not on the 2026 ballot
All 42 senators serve four-year terms elected together in presidential years; the next Senate election is in 2028.
New Mexico · 2026 forecast · Southwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico in 2026
New Mexico elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 3 members of the U.S. House and all 70 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2028.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 3 U.S. House seats · 1 legislative chamber.
- U.S. Senate
- D >99%D 99%Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker
- Governor
- D 91%D 89%Deb Haaland vs. Gregg Hull
- U.S. House
- 2.9 D · 0.1 R2.8 D · 0.2 RExpected seats of 3
- New Mexico House of Representatives
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 70 of 70 seats up
- Attorney General
- D 99%D 94%Raúl Torrez vs. Sam Kane
- Secretary of State
- D 98%D 94%Amanda López Askin vs. Ramona Goolsby
- Treasurer
- D 99%D 94%Laura Montoya vs. Jim Ellison
- Auditor
- D >99%D 94%Joseph Maestas vs. Joshua Lawrence
U.S. House districts · New Mexico
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 91%
- Divided
- 9%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (91%); 9% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 89%
- Divided
- 11%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (89%); 11% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
● Raúl TorrezINC● Sam Kane
Secretary of State
● Amanda López Askin● Ramona Goolsby
Treasurer
● Laura MontoyaINC● Jim Ellison
Auditor
● Joseph MaestasINC● Joshua Lawrence
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The New Mexico environment
The environment New Mexico's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- New Mexico state offices vs. the nation
- −0.7± 4.1 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- New Mexico state-office environment
- D+8.80.7 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the New Mexico environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
3 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Albuquerque
3 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-1 | ● Melanie StansburyINC● Didi Okpareke | D+23.2D+22.9 | D+14 | — | ||
| NM-2 | ● Gabe VasquezINC● Greg Cunningham | D+8.2D+6.7 | D+1 | 3 | ||
| NM-3 | ● Teresa Leger FernándezINC● Martin Zamora | D+16.0D+15.4 | D+7 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
New Mexico Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
New Mexico House of Representatives
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 47 D – 23 R seats · 36 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 61%
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 48 D – 23 R seats · 36 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 70%
New Mexico House of Representatives ratings
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
HD-38David L. MooneyRebecca DowFlip riskD flip55%Rep.61%Dem. HD-57Chriselle Verene MartinezCatherine CullenD flipD flip63%Dem.74%Dem. HD-39Raul S. TurrietaLuis TerrazasD flipD flip67%Dem.84%Dem. HD-60Luke Nicholas JungmannJoshua HernandezFlip risk68%Rep.52%Dem. HD-22Bill ScottStefani Lord81%Rep.69%Rep. HD-31Ryan Anselm BraidNicole ChavezD flipD flip83%Dem.91%Dem.
HD-7Rickie Allen Gonzales IITanya Mirabal Moya92%Rep.74%Rep. HD-53Sarah SilvaBen Luna Jr.92%Dem.80%Dem. HD-36Nathan SmallJulia E. Ruiz95%Dem.85%Dem. HD-32Laura Mairel ParraJenifer Jones95%Rep.87%Rep. HD-68Charlotte LittleDavid E. Adkins96%Dem.90%Dem. HD-4Joseph Franklin HernandezHeather Scott Ellison98%Dem.89%Dem.
How New Mexico votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Not on the ballot this year
This chamber holds regular elections in other years.
New Mexico State Senate
Next regular election: 2028 · 42 seats
26 D · 16 R