Tennessee · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Tennessee State Senate?

17 of 33 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 17 seats make a majority. 17 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Tennessee State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.480% range 6–7
Avg. R seats: 26.680% range 26–27
Now: 6 D · 27 R17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (27 of 33 seats; 17 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Tennessee State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.380% range 6–7
Avg. R seats: 26.780% range 26–27
Now: 6 D · 27 R17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (27 of 33 seats; 17 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 17 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R11

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R11

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Tennessee

Nashville

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

No race is closer than Likely (80%).

Most likely to flip

SD-31David WeatherspoonBrent Taylor18%to flip15%to flip SD-7Bryan LanganRichard Briggs18%to flip12%to flip SD-13Angela EvansDawn White3%to flip3%to flip SD-17Joni CochranMark Pody2%to flip3%to flip SD-27David A. HardyJack Johnson1%to flip1%to flip SD-5David MillerJimmy Matlock<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

17 of 33 seats on the ballot; 16 holdovers (2 D, 14 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

17 races, 11 without a contest between the major parties.

17 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● No Democrat● J. Adam LoweINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
SD-3	● No Democrat● Rusty CroweINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+48	—
SD-5	● David Miller● Jimmy Matlock	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+24.1R+31.0	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
SD-7	● Bryan Langan● Richard BriggsINC	18%82% 12%88%	R+6.9R+11.5	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
SD-9R vs R	● No Democrat● Steve SoutherlandINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+63	—
SD-11	● No Democrat● Bo WatsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+19	—
SD-13	● Angela Evans● Dawn WhiteINC	3%97% 3%97%	R+13.9R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
SD-15	● No Democrat● Paul BaileyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
SD-17	● Joni Cochran● Mark PodyINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+18.2R+19.9	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
SD-19	● Charlane OliverINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+58	—
SD-21	● Jeff YarbroINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
SD-23	● No Democrat● Kerry RobertsINCAlso: David Lee Marcum (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+51	—
SD-25	● No Democrat● Ed JacksonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
SD-27	● David A. Hardy● Jack JohnsonINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.6R+24.6	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
SD-29	● Raumesh AkbariINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+65	—
SD-31	● David Weatherspoon● Brent TaylorINC	18%82% 15%85%	R+7.3R+10.1	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
SD-33D vs D	● London LamarINC● No Republican	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+68	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.