Illinois · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 17 members of the U.S. House, 39 of 59 members of the State Senate and all 118 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 17 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · Illinois
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
After the election
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Treasurer
Auditor
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The environment Illinois's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Illinois environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
17 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Chicago
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-1 | ● Jonathan JacksonINC● Christian Maxwell | D+42.0D+41.5 | D+35 | — | ||
| IL-2 | ● Donna Miller● Michael Noack | D+42.5D+41.8 | D+35 | — | ||
| IL-3 | ● Delia RamirezINC● Angel Oakley | D+45.5D+43.0 | D+34 | — | ||
| IL-4 | ● Patty Garcia● Lupe CastilloAlso: Chris Getty (I), Ed Hershey (WCP) | D+42.9D+41.2 | D+34 | 1 | ||
| IL-5 | ● Mike QuigleyINC● Tommy Hanson | D+48.3D+46.7 | D+38 | — | ||
| IL-6 | ● Sean CastenINC● Niki Conforti | D+18.9D+16.0 | D+7 | — | ||
| IL-7 | ● La Shawn Ford● Chad Koppie | D+74.2D+74.5 | D+68 | — | ||
| IL-8 | ● Melissa Bean● Jennifer Davis | D+19.9D+17.9 | D+9 | — | ||
| IL-9 | ● Daniel Biss● John Elleson | D+46.6D+46.2 | D+38 | — | ||
| IL-10 | ● Brad SchneiderINC● Carl Lambrecht | D+34.0D+31.7 | D+23 | — | ||
| IL-11 | ● Bill FosterINC● Jeff Walter | D+24.0D+20.8 | D+13 | — | ||
| IL-12 | ● Julie Fortier● Mike BostINC | R+36.1R+36.9 | R+44 | — | ||
| IL-13 | ● Nikki BudzinskiINC● Jeff Wilson | D+23.1D+18.2 | D+11 | — | ||
| IL-14 | ● Lauren UnderwoodINC● James Marter | D+18.7D+14.3 | D+7 | — | ||
| IL-15 | ● Jennifer Todd● Mary MillerINC | R+33.3R+32.6 | R+40 | — | ||
| IL-16 | ● Paul Nolley● Darin LaHoodINC | R+19.1R+14.6 | R+22 | — | ||
| IL-17 | ● Eric SorensenINC● Dillan Vancil | D+17.8D+13.6 | D+6 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Illinois State Senate
Avg. 41 D – 18 R seats · 30 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 41 D – 18 R seats · 30 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
39 of 59 seats up; 20 holdovers.
Full forecast3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Illinois House of Representatives
Avg. 84 D – 34 R seats · 60 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 84 D – 34 R seats · 60 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Senators serve terms of two or four years in a set pattern each decade, so a different share of the seats is on the ballot each election: 39 of 59 in 2026.
39 of 59 seats on the ballot; 20 holdovers (17 D, 3 R) serve until a later election.