North Carolina · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the North Carolina State Senate?

All 50 seats are on the ballot. 26 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties. 30 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are clearly favored to control the North Carolina State Senate (87%).

Democrats

13%

chance of control

Republicans

87%

Avg. D seats: 22.280% range 20–25
Avg. R seats: 27.880% range 25–30
Now: 20 D · 30 R50 up this year

Republican supermajority now (30 of 50 seats; 30 needed for three-fifths): 20% chance it holds · 80% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party30 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.

Republicans are favored to control the North Carolina State Senate (77%).

Democrats

23%

chance of control

Republicans

77%

Avg. D seats: 22.880% range 20–26
Avg. R seats: 27.280% range 24–30
Now: 20 D · 30 R50 up this year

Republican supermajority now (30 of 50 seats; 30 needed for three-fifths): 17% chance it holds · 83% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party30 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 50 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D19

Show 13 more

Likely D1

SD-18

Lean D1

SD-11flip

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R22

Show 16 more

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R5

Solid R19

Show 13 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

North Carolina

Charlotte

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-34April CookKevin CrutchfieldFlip risk63%Rep.57%Rep. SD-7Jessica BichlerMichael LeeFlip risk64%Rep.55%Dem. SD-11James GailliardLisa Stone BarnesD flipD flip68%Dem.65%Dem. SD-4Jessica RiveraBuck Newton75%Rep.62%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-11James GailliardLisa Stone BarnesD flipD flip68%to flip65%to flip SD-34April CookKevin CrutchfieldFlip risk37%to flip43%to flip SD-7Jessica BichlerMichael LeeFlip risk36%to flip55%to flip SD-4Jessica RiveraBuck Newton25%to flip38%to flip SD-2Roy SurrettNorman Sanderson14%to flip17%to flip SD-24Catina HammDanny Britt13%to flip22%to flip SD-1Melissa ZehnerJerry Tillett11%to flip22%to flip SD-18Haseeb FatmiChris Stock9%to flip26%to flip SD-26Steve LukingSam Page5%to flip5%to flip SD-8Richard CombesBill Rabon5%to flip9%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

50 races, 5 without a contest between the major parties.

50 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Melissa Zehner● Jerry TillettINC	11%89% 22%78%	R+9.0R+7.2	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
SD-2	● Roy Surrett● Norman SandersonINC	14%86% 17%83%	R+7.9R+9.1	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
SD-3	● Charles Dudley● Bob BrinsonINC	4%96% 9%91%	R+12.9R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
SD-4	● Jessica Rivera● Buck NewtonINC	25%75% 38%62%	R+4.9R+2.8	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
SD-5	● Kandie SmithINC● Henry Hostetler	99%1% 94%6%	D+19.3D+15.7	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
SD-6	● Andi Morrow● Michael LazzaraINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+29.3R+30.0	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
SD-7Flip risk	● Jessica Bichler● Michael LeeINC	36%64% 55%45%	R+2.5D+1.2	Lean RToss-up	R+6	—
SD-8	● Richard Combes● Bill RabonINCAlso: Tim White (L)	5%95% 9%91%	R+12.6R+13.0	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
SD-9	● Helen Bronson● Brent JacksonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.9R+22.3	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
SD-10	● Pat LeGrand● Benton SawreyINCAlso: Kevin Terrett (L)	1%99% 4%96%	R+17.7R+17.2	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-11D flipD flip	● James Gailliard● Lisa Stone BarnesINCAlso: Gavin Bell (L)	68%32% 65%35%	D+3.3D+3.4	Lean DLean D	R+3	—
SD-12	● Tanya White Anderson● Jim BurginINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.4R+17.8	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-13	● Lisa GrafsteinINC● Robert van Brederode	98%2% 88%12%	D+18.3D+11.5	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
SD-14	● Dan BlueINC● Angela McCarty	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.6D+55.2	Solid DSolid D	D+49	—
SD-15	● Jay ChaudhuriINC● David Bankert	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.4D+44.6	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
SD-16	● Gale AdcockINC● Philip HensleyAlso: Jonathan Miller (L)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.0D+42.8	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
SD-17	● Sydney BatchINC● Shirley JohnsonAlso: Patrick Bowersox (L)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.7D+36.4	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
SD-18	● Haseeb FatmiINC● Chris StockAlso: Brad Hessel (L)	91%9% 74%26%	D+10.3D+6.0	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
SD-19	● Val ApplewhiteINC● Venus de la Cruz	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.9D+35.7	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
SD-20	● Natalie MurdockINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+45	—
SD-21	● Paul Taylor● Tom McInnisINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+15.2R+15.9	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
SD-22	● Sophia ChitlikINC● Lakeshia Alston	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+61.8D+65.6	Solid DSolid D	D+60	—
SD-23	● Jonah GarsonINC● Laura Pichardo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.4D+36.8	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
SD-24	● Catina Hamm● Danny BrittINC	13%87% 22%78%	R+8.2R+7.2	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
SD-25	● Southey Blanton● Amy GaleyINC	2%98% 6%94%	R+15.0R+14.9	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
SD-26	● Steve Luking● Sam Page	5%95% 5%95%	R+12.2R+16.4	Likely RSolid R	R+22	—
SD-27	● Michael GarrettINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+21	—
SD-28	● Gladys RobinsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+53	—
SD-29	● Bob Morrison● Dave CravenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.5R+32.1	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
SD-30	● Pamela McAfee● Steve JarvisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.8R+42.2	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
SD-31	● Andy Bowline● Dana Caudill JonesINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+16.2R+16.7	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-32	● Paul Lowe Jr.INC● Peter Antinozzi	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.6D+47.9	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
SD-33	● Gary Weart● Carl FordINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.2R+35.5	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
SD-34Flip risk	● April Cook● Kevin Crutchfield	37%63% 43%57%	R+2.4R+1.5	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
SD-35	● Christine Winward● Todd JohnsonINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+16.8R+17.6	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-36	● Trevor Cole Hardwick● Eddie SettleINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.6R+53.3	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
SD-37	● Raygan Angel● Vickie SawyerINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.5R+20.1	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-38	● Mujtaba MohammedINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+37	—
SD-39	● DeAndrea SalvadorINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
SD-40	● Joyce WaddellINC● Bobbie Shields	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.3D+57.3	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
SD-41	● Caleb TheodrosINC● Kevin Gray	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.1D+60.1	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
SD-42	● Woodson BradleyINC● Stacie McGinn	98%2% 92%8%	D+18.1D+14.5	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
SD-43	● Steve Rutherford● Brad OvercashINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+18.2R+17.2	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-44	● Rod Powell● Ted AlexanderINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.6R+36.8	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
SD-45	● Greg Cranford● Mark HolloINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.0R+36.8	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
SD-46	● Kyle Whisnant● Warren DanielINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.1R+26.5	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
SD-47	● Frank Patton Hughes III● Ralph HiseINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.1R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
SD-48	● Doyle Brown Jr.● Tim MoffittINC	2%98% 2%98%	R+16.9R+20.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-49	● Julie MayfieldINC● CJ Domingo	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.7D+42.1	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
SD-50	● Tom Downing● Kevin CorbinINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.0R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).