Maryland · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Maryland House of Delegates?

All 141 seats are on the ballot. 71 seats make a majority. 85 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Maryland House of Delegates (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 106.580% range 103–111
Avg. R seats: 34.580% range 30–38
Now: 102 D · 39 R141 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (102 of 141 seats; 85 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

102 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party39 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Maryland House of Delegates (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 107.780% range 104–113
Avg. R seats: 33.380% range 28–37
Now: 102 D · 39 R141 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (102 of 141 seats; 85 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

102 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party39 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 71 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.

Solid D46

Show 40 more

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R6

Solid R14

Show 8 more

Solid D45

Show 39 more

Likely D3

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R6

Likely R5

Solid R12

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Maryland

Baltimore

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-42AJyoti MohanChuck Murphy67%Rep.79%Rep. HD-30BMatt JohnstonSeth A. Howard73%Rep.70%Rep. HD-34BAnthony LyonJake Taylor74%Rep.73%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-33BChuck CookStuart Schmidt Jr.D flipD flip92%to flip90%to flip HD-38BJosh HastingsBarry BeauchampD flipD flip88%to flip90%to flip HD-42AJyoti MohanChuck Murphy33%to flip21%to flip HD-30BMatt JohnstonSeth A. Howard27%to flip30%to flip HD-34BAnthony LyonJake Taylor26%to flip27%to flip HD-4Andrew DuckApril Fleming Miller3 seats19%to flip38%to flip HD-7ALy Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn BrownRyan Nawrocki2 seats15%to flip26%to flip HD-38AShelley JohnsonC. L. Marshall III14%to flip11%to flip HD-31Joan Barone ColeBrian Chisholm3 seats7%to flip11%to flip HD-29CShaara WattsTodd Morgan6%to flip14%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Multi-member delegate districts

Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

71 races, 24 without a contest between the major parties.

71 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1A	● Jason Jobe● Dan Duggan	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.1R+49.7	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-1B	● Rhiannon C. Brown● Jason C. BuckelINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.5R+31.1	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-1C	● Seth Funk● Terry BakerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.2R+44.5	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-2A2 seats	● John Leonard● William ValentineINCAlso: William J. Wivell (R), Brandon Thompson (D)	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+24.5R+21.9	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-2B	● Matthew SchindlerINC● Brenda Thiam	99%1% 95%5%	D+19.8D+16.5	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-33 seats	● Kris FairINC● Angela McIntoshAlso: Kenneth P. Kerr (D), Karen Simpson (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.9D+39.2	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-43 seats	● Andrew Duck● April Fleming MillerINCAlso: Jason Keckler (R), Jesse Pippy (R), Jerry Donald (D)	19%81% 38%62%	R+6.7R+2.7	Likely RLean R	R+8	—
HD-53 seats	● Dayana Bergman● April RoseINCAlso: Chris Tomlinson (R), Steve Whisler (R), Alison Rudolph (D)	1%99% 3%97%	R+21.7R+19.1	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-63 seats	● Artus Huffman● Robin Grammer Jr.INCAlso: Ric Metzgar (R), Robert B. Long (R), Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D)	4%96% 10%90%	R+13.3R+12.5	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-7A2 seats	● Ly Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn Brown● Ryan NawrockiINCAlso: Kathy Szeliga (R), Satish Chapagain (D)	15%85% 26%74%	R+7.7R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-7B	● Candace Hart● Lauren ArikanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.2R+24.9	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-83 seats	● Nick AllenINC● Brian CampbellAlso: Harry Bhandari (D), Kim Ross (D), Glen Geelhaar (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.3D+30.4	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-9A2 seats	● Chao WuINC● Fitzgerald MoforAlso: Natalie Ziegler (D), Spencer Rhoda (R), Saif Rehman (I)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.8D+28.2	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-9B	● Courtney WatsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+41	—
HD-10D vs D3 seats	● N. Scott PhillipsINC● No RepublicanAlso: Robin Harvey (D), Jennifer White Holland (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+55	—
HD-11A	● Cheryl PasteurINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+62	—
HD-11B2 seats	● Jon CardinINC● John GordonAlso: Dana Stein (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.0D+37.8	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-12A2 seats	● Jessica FeldmarkINC● Frank GloverAlso: Terri Hill (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.5D+59.7	Solid DSolid D	D+52	—
HD-12B	● Gary SimmonsINC● Blair Brannock	99%1% 97%3%	D+21.8D+19.0	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-13D vs D3 seats	● Pam GuzzoneINC● No RepublicanAlso: Amy Brooks (D), Gabriel Moreno (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+52	—
HD-14D vs D3 seats	● Anne KaiserINC● No RepublicanAlso: Bernice Mireku-North (D), Matt Post (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+47	—
HD-153 seats	● Linda FoleyINC● Peter ChanAlso: David Fraser-Hidalgo (D), Lily Qi (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.1D+55.3	Solid DSolid D	D+49	—
HD-163 seats	● Marc KormanINC● Ann HingstonAlso: Sarah Wolek (D), Teresa Saavedra Woorman (D), Bob White (WCP)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+64.6D+69.1	Solid DSolid D	D+64	—
HD-17D vs D3 seats	● Julie Palakovich CarrINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ryan Spiegel (D), Joe Vogel (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+58	—
HD-18D vs D3 seats	● Aaron KaufmanINC● No RepublicanAlso: Emily Shetty (D), Jared Solomon (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+68	—
HD-19D vs D3 seats	● Charlotte CrutchfieldINC● No RepublicanAlso: Vaughn Stewart (D), Christa Tichy (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+53	—
HD-20D vs D3 seats	● Lorig CharkoudianINC● No RepublicanAlso: David Moon (D), Jheanelle Wilkins (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+77	—
HD-21D vs D3 seats	● Benjamin S. BarnesINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mary A. Lehman (D), Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+55	—
HD-22D vs D3 seats	● Ashanti MartinezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tracy Gant (D), Molly McKee-Seabrook (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+76	—
HD-233 seats	● Marvin E. Holmes Jr.INC● Michael RikerAlso: Keenon James (D), Kym Taylor (D), Kimberly Robinson (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.2D+75.5	Solid DSolid D	D+70	—
HD-24D vs D3 seats	● Derrick ColeyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Andrea Harrison (D), LaTasha Ward (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+84	—
HD-25D vs D3 seats	● Kent RobersonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Denise Roberts (D), Karen Toles (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+87	—
HD-263 seats	● Veronica L. TurnerINC● JoAnn FisherAlso: Kris Valderrama (D), Jamila Woods (D), Ike Puzon (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+80.2D+88.1	Solid DSolid D	D+84	—
HD-27A	● Darrell OdomINC● Jim Crawford	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+61.7D+66.0	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—
HD-27B	● Jeffrie Long Jr.INC● Dan Thomas	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.2D+37.8	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-27C	● Jennifer Davidson● Mark N. FisherINC	6%94% 23%77%	R+13.4R+7.0	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-283 seats	● Debra DavisINC● James AshburnAlso: Abena Affum-McAllister (D), Edith J. Patterson (D), Winfield Clark (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.9D+44.3	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
HD-29A	● Jennifer Clancy● Matthew MorganINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.1R+30.8	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-29B	● Adrianne Mathis● BJ Hall	99%1% 95%5%	D+17.6D+16.6	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-29C	● Shaara Watts● Todd MorganINC	6%94% 14%86%	R+11.9R+10.2	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-30AD vs D2 seats	● Dylan BehlerINC● No RepublicanAlso: Dana Jones (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+31	—
HD-30B	● Matt Johnston● Seth A. HowardINC	27%73% 30%70%	R+4.4R+4.8	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-313 seats	● Joan Barone Cole● Brian ChisholmINCAlso: Mike Jacobs (R), LaToya Nkongolo (R), Heidi Schmidt (D)	7%93% 11%89%	R+10.9R+11.5	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-323 seats	● J. Sandy BartlettINC● Colin McEversAlso: Spencer Dixon (D), Mike Rogers (D), Mary Phelps (R)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.9D+38.2	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-33A	● Andrew PruskiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+34	—
HD-33BD flipD flip	● Chuck Cook● Stuart Schmidt Jr.INC	92%8% 90%10%	D+10.4D+12.9	Likely DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-33C	● Heather BagnallINC● Kristin Norris	99%1% 95%6%	D+19.7D+16.1	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
HD-34A2 seats	● Andre Johnson Jr.INC● Elliott Joseph HernekerAlso: Steven C. Johnson (D)	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.2D+23.0	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-34B	● Anthony Lyon● Jake Taylor	26%74% 27%73%	R+4.7R+5.8	Lean RLean R	R+12	—
HD-35A2 seats	● Gregory V. Anderson● Mike GriffithINCAlso: Teresa E. Reilly (R), Michael Eckels (D)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.5R+31.9	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-35B	● Blessing Oluwadare● Derek Howell	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.5R+33.8	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-363 seats	● Nevin Crouse● Steven J. ArentzINCAlso: Jefferson L. Ghrist (R), Jay Jacobs (R), Michelle Ravert (D)	1%99% 4%97%	R+17.8R+18.4	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-37A	● Sheree Sample-HughesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
HD-37B2 seats	● Michele Johnson● Christopher T. AdamsINCAlso: Tom Hutchinson (R), Edmund Barrett (D)	5%95% 7%93%	R+12.6R+14.9	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-38A	● Shelley Johnson● C. L. Marshall III	14%86% 11%89%	R+7.8R+12.1	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-38BD flipD flip	● Josh Hastings● Barry BeauchampINC	88%12% 90%10%	D+8.7D+12.4	Likely DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-38C	● No Democrat● Wayne A. HartmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+31	—
HD-39D vs D3 seats	● Gabriel AceveroINC● No RepublicanAlso: Lesley Lopez (D), W. Gregory Wims (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+54	—
HD-40D vs D3 seats	● Marlon AmpreyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tiffany Welch (D), Melissa Wells (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+83	—
HD-41D vs D3 seats	● Samuel I. RosenbergINC● No RepublicanAlso: Sean Stinnett (D), Ryan Turner (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+71	—
HD-42A	● Jyoti Mohan● Chuck Murphy	33%67% 21%79%	R+3.3R+7.8	Lean RLean R	R+13	—
HD-42B	● Michele GuytonINC● Jeffry McDonald	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.8D+32.1	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-42C	● Corynne Courpas● Steve Patten	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.4R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-43AD vs D2 seats	● Regina T. BoyceINC● No RepublicanAlso: Elizabeth Embry (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+86	—
HD-43B	● Cathi ForbesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-44A	● Eric EbersoleINC● Chuck Linton	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.8D+25.9	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-44B2 seats	● Aletheia McCaskillINC● Domonic MartinAlso: Sheila Ruth (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.2D+67.6	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
HD-45D vs D3 seats	● Jackie AddisonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Chanel Branch (D), Caylin Young (D), Renaud De'Aundre Brown (G)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+79	—
HD-463 seats	● Luke ClippingerINC● Jeremy AmasonAlso: Mark Edelson (D), Robbyn Lewis (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.9D+68.2	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
HD-47A2 seats	● Diana FennellINC● Fred PriceAlso: Julian Ivey (D)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+77.4D+86.0	Solid DSolid D	D+81	—
HD-47B	● Deni TaverasINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+74	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.