Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota in 2026
South Dakota elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, its one member of the U.S. House, all 35 members of the State Senate and all 70 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 1 U.S. House seat · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- R 93%R 93%Brian Bengs vs. Mike Rounds
- Governor
- R 90%R 92%Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden
- U.S. House
- 0.0 D · 1.0 R0.0 D · 1.0 RExpected seats of 1
- South Dakota State Senate
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 35 of 35 seats up
- South Dakota House of Representatives
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 70 of 70 seats up
- Attorney General
- Solid RSolid RLance Russell unopposed
- Secretary of State
- R 99%R 95%Terrence Davis vs. Heather Baxter
- Treasurer
- R 99%R 95%Margaret Kuipers vs. Melissa Hull
- Auditor
- R 99%R 95%Tom Cool vs. Catherine Barranco
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 10%
- Rep. trifecta
- 90%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (90%); 10% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 8%
- Rep. trifecta
- 92%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (92%); 8% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
● No Democrat● Lance Russell
Republican unopposed
Republican unopposed
Secretary of State
● Terrence Davis● Heather Baxter
Treasurer
● Margaret Kuipers● Melissa Hull
Auditor
● Tom Cool● Catherine Barranco
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.
The South Dakota environment
The environment South Dakota's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- South Dakota state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- South Dakota state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in South Dakota is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the South Dakota environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
1 at-large seat. The national House forecast.
1 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-AL | ● Nikki Gronli● Marty Jackley | R+15.6R+15.4 | R+30 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
South Dakota Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
South Dakota State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 4 D – 31 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 4 D – 31 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
South Dakota State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
South Dakota House of Representatives
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 11 D – 59 R seats · 36 for control · R supermajority now: 99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 12 D – 59 R seats · 36 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
South Dakota House of Representatives ratings
No seat is projected to change parties. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
LD-12Stephanie ArneAmber ArlintFlip riskFlip risk2 seats55%Rep.56%Dem. LD-14Erinn WilliamsTaylor RehfeldtFlip riskD flip2 seats57%Dem.67%Dem. LD-28AChastity "Chas" JewettJana HuntFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.53%Dem. LD-26Shawn BordeauxRebecca Reimer63%Rep.71%Rep. LD-7Blake StevensMellissa Heermann2 seats65%Rep.61%Rep. LD-11Sonja MentzerKeri Weems2 seats69%Rep.65%Rep.
LD-12Joe ZweifelKari Shanard-KoendersD flipFlip risk70%Dem.56%Dem. LD-11Aaron MatsonChris Karr70%Rep.65%Rep. LD-32Nicole Uhre-BalkSteve DuffyR flip2 seats71%Dem.62%Rep. LD-27Celestine StadnickAnthony KatholFlip risk78%Dem.56%Dem. LD-13Ali Rae HorstedJack Kolbeck2 seats79%Rep.72%Rep. LD-32Jeff SheltonHelene Duhamel84%Rep.62%Rep.
How South Dakota votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.