Maryland · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Maryland State Senate?

All 47 seats are on the ballot. 24 seats make a majority. 29 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Maryland State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 34.880% range 34–36
Avg. R seats: 12.280% range 11–13
Now: 34 D · 13 R47 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (34 of 47 seats; 29 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party13 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Maryland State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 35.880% range 34–38
Avg. R seats: 11.280% range 9–13
Now: 34 D · 13 R47 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (34 of 47 seats; 29 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party13 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 47 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D34

Show 28 more

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R9

Solid D33

Show 27 more

Likely D1

LD-34

Lean D0

Toss-up1

LD-37risk

Lean R2

Likely R6

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Maryland

Baltimore

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-4Lara WestdorpWilliam Folden73%Rep.61%Rep. LD-37Katie ClendanielJohnny MautzFlip risk75%Rep.54%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-4Lara WestdorpWilliam Folden27%to flip39%to flip LD-37Katie ClendanielJohnny MautzFlip risk25%to flip46%to flip LD-42Stephanie PopescuKevin Ford13%to flip24%to flip LD-38Lino CressottiMary Beth Carozza6%to flip17%to flip LD-2Eric Van BurenPaul Corderman4%to flip12%to flip LD-6Justin HollidayJohnny Ray Salling4%to flip10%to flip LD-29Chuck BorgesJack Bailey4%to flip17%to flip LD-34Mary-Dulany JamesRaj Goel4%to flip11%to flip LD-31Brent MulrooneyNic Kipke3%to flip11%to flip LD-7Bill GeiblerJ. B. Jennings2%to flip9%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

47 races, 20 without a contest between the major parties.

47 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-1	● Ashley Emerick● Mike McKayINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.1R+42.5	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
LD-2	● Eric Van Buren● Paul CordermanINC	4%96% 12%88%	R+13.1R+11.2	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
LD-3	● Karen Lewis YoungINC● Shelley Aloi	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.4D+39.2	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
LD-4	● Lara Westdorp● William FoldenINC	27%73% 39%61%	R+4.4R+2.7	Lean RLean R	R+8	—
LD-5	● Gary Foote● Justin ReadyINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+24.2R+19.3	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
LD-6	● Justin Holliday● Johnny Ray SallingINC	4%96% 10%90%	R+12.8R+12.4	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
LD-7	● Bill Geibler● J. B. JenningsINC	2%98% 9%91%	R+18.0R+13.0	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
LD-8	● Carl W. JacksonINC● Yahu Blackwell	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.5D+30.5	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
LD-9	● Katie Fry HesterINC● Ben Hightower	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.7D+33.5	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
LD-10	● Benjamin BrooksINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+55	—
LD-11	● Shelly HettlemanINC● Jim Simpson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.4D+46.8	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
LD-12	● Clarence LamINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
LD-13	● Guy GuzzoneINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
LD-14	● Craig ZuckerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
LD-15	● Brian FeldmanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+49	—
LD-16	● Sara N. LoveINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+64	—
LD-17	● Cheryl KaganINC● Helene Meister	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+60.3D+63.5	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
LD-18	● Jeff WaldstreicherINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
LD-19	● Benjamin F. KramerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+53	—
LD-20	● William C. Smith Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+77	—
LD-21	● James RosapepeINC● Lee Havis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.6D+62.4	Solid DSolid D	D+55	—
LD-22	● Alonzo T. WashingtonINC● Jim Wass	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+74.9D+81.5	Solid DSolid D	D+76	—
LD-23	● Ron WatsonINC● James A. T. Amah	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+70.7D+75.4	Solid DSolid D	D+70	—
LD-24	● Tiffany T. Alston● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+84	—
LD-25	● Nick CharlesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+87	—
LD-26	● C. Anthony MuseINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+84	—
LD-27	● Kevin HarrisINC● Al Larsen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.6D+35.6	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
LD-28	● C. T. Wilson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+38	—
LD-29	● Chuck Borges● Jack BaileyINC	4%96% 17%83%	R+14.9R+8.9	Solid RLikely R	R+15	—
LD-30	● Shaneka HensonINC● Jessica Haire	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.1D+22.6	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
LD-31	● Brent Mulrooney● Nic Kipke	3%97% 11%89%	R+16.9R+11.6	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
LD-32	● Mark S. Chang● Justin Gallucci	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.9D+38.2	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
LD-33	● Dawn GileINC● Amy Leahy	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.7D+21.7	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
LD-34	● Mary-Dulany JamesINC● Raj Goel	96%4% 89%11%	D+13.4D+11.9	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
LD-35	● Neil Jennings● Jason C. GallionINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.2R+32.5	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
LD-36	● Nivek Johnson● Steve HersheyINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+23.2R+18.4	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
LD-37Flip risk	● Katie Clendaniel● Johnny MautzINC	25%75% 46%54%	R+5.2R+1.0	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
LD-38	● Lino Cressotti● Mary Beth CarozzaINC	6%94% 17%83%	R+12.7R+8.8	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
LD-39	● Amar Mukunda● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+54	—
LD-40	● Antonio HayesINC● No RepublicanAlso: Alan Rebar (WCP)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+83	—
LD-41	● Malcolm Ruff● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+71	—
LD-42	● Stephanie Popescu● Kevin Ford	13%87% 24%76%	R+8.5R+6.5	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
LD-43	● Mary L. WashingtonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+75	—
LD-44	● Charles E. Sydnor IIIINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+50	—
LD-45	● Cory McCrayINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+79	—
LD-46	● Bill FergusonINC● Emmanuel Digman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+65.3D+68.2	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
LD-47	● Malcolm AugustineINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+79	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).