Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
15 of 29 seats on the ballot; 14 holdovers (2 D, 12 R) serve until a later election.
Utah · 2026 forecast · Mountain West region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah in 2026
Utah elects all 4 members of the U.S. House, 15 of 29 members of the State Senate and all 75 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: 4 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · Utah
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
The Utah environment
The environment Utah's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Utah state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- Utah state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in Utah is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Utah environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
4 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Salt Lake City
4 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-1 | ● Ben McAdams● Riley Owen | D+41.1D+42.6 | D+25 | 1 | ||
| UT-2 | ● Peter Crosby● Blake MooreINC | R+15.1R+12.1 | R+30 | 3 | ||
| UT-3 | ● Kent Udell● Celeste MaloyINC | R+30.8R+28.1 | R+43 | 1 | ||
| UT-4 | ● Jonny Larsen● Mike KennedyINC | R+20.0R+16.6 | R+34 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Utah Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Utah State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 7 D – 22 R seats · 15 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 7 D – 22 R seats · 15 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
15 of 29 seats up; 14 holdovers.
Full forecastUtah State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 Ind.→R.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.
Utah House of Representatives
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 22 D – 53 R seats · 38 for control · R supermajority now: 90% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 23 D – 52 R seats · 38 for control · R supermajority now: 82% it holds
Utah House of Representatives ratings
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
HD-59Celeste T. JohnsonLuke SearleFlip risk51%Dem.68%Rep. HD-20Phil GravesMelissa BallardFlip riskD flip54%Rep.63%Dem. HD-36Blake TownsendJim DunniganFlip riskD flip58%Dem.84%Dem. SD-5Christina HernandezJill KofordFlip risk61%Rep.52%Dem. HD-39Drew HowellsKen IvoryD flipD flip65%Dem.86%Dem. SD-19Shana AndersonKirk Cullimore Jr.Flip risk67%Rep.52%Rep.
HD-27Liz OatesAnthony LoubetD flipD flip67%Dem.73%Dem. HD-8Kim JamesJason B KyleFlip risk76%Rep.54%Rep. HD-44Jess BirtcherJordan Teuscher76%Rep.62%Rep. HD-42Iva WilliamsClint OkerlundD flipD flip79%Dem.81%Dem. HD-26Michael E FinchMatt MacphersonD flipD flip80%Dem.81%Dem. HD-45Rod MoserTracy Miller85%Rep.74%Rep.
How Utah votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.