Washington · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Washington State Senate?

24 of 49 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 25 seats make a majority. 33 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Washington State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 30.880% range 30–32
Avg. R seats: 18.280% range 17–19
Now: 30 D · 19 R24 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (33+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are very likely to control the Washington State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 30.880% range 30–32
Avg. R seats: 18.280% range 17–19
Now: 30 D · 19 R24 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (33+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D17

Show 11 more

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

LD-35risk

Lean R1

LD-31

Likely R0

Solid R5

Solid D15

Show 9 more

Likely D2

Lean D1

LD-35flip

Toss-up0

Lean R1

LD-31

Likely R0

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Washington

Seattle

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-35Carolina MejiaDrew MacEwenFlip riskD flip57%Dem.65%Dem. LD-31Tamara StramelPhil Fortunato71%Rep.61%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-35Carolina MejiaDrew MacEwenFlip riskD flip57%to flip65%to flip LD-31Tamara StramelPhil Fortunato29%to flip39%to flip LD-42Michael ShepardErika Creydt2%to flip6%to flip LD-26Deborah KrishnadasanGary Parker2%to flip10%to flip LD-47Claudia KauffmanKristina Soltys1%to flip3%to flip LD-30Claire WilsonMichael Rutland<1%to flip1%to flip LD-44John LovickSherri Larkin<1%to flip1%to flip LD-38June RobinsonBrad Bender<1%to flip1%to flip LD-21Marko LiiasRiaz Khan<1%to flip<1%to flip LD-36Noel FrameJillian England<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

24 of 49 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (13 D, 12 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

24 races, 13 without a contest between the major parties.

24 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-6	● No Democrat● Jeff HolyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+11	—
LD-7	● No Democrat● Shelly ShortINCAlso: Ronald McCoy (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+33	—
LD-8R vs R	● No Democrat● Nikki TorresAlso: Gabe Galbraith (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+24	—
LD-13	● No Democrat● Alex Ybarra	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+29	—
LD-15	● No Democrat● Jeremie Dufault	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+23	—
LD-21	● Marko LiiasINC● Riaz Khan	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.1D+41.7	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
LD-26	● Deborah KrishnadasanINC● Gary Parker	98%2% 90%10%	D+16.1D+12.7	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
LD-29D vs D	● Sharlett Mena● No RepublicanAlso: David Anderson (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+22	—
LD-30	● Claire WilsonINC● Michael Rutland	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.7D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
LD-31	● Tamara Stramel● Phil FortunatoINC	29%71% 39%61%	R+3.9R+2.5	Lean RLean R	R+7	—
LD-32D vs D	● Jesse SalomonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Cindy Ryu (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+56	—
LD-33	● Tina OrwallINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+39	—
LD-34	● Emily AlvaradoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+72	—
LD-35Flip riskD flip	● Carolina Mejia● Drew MacEwenINC	57%43% 65%35%	D+1.3D+3.6	Toss-upLean D	Even	—
LD-36	● Noel FrameINC● Jillian England	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+77.3D+87.3	Solid DSolid D	D+84	—
LD-37D vs D	● Chipalo Street● No RepublicanAlso: Tatiana Brown (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+77	—
LD-38	● June RobinsonINC● Brad Bender	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.4D+24.3	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
LD-42	● Michael Shepard● Erika Creydt	98%2% 94%6%	D+15.4D+15.3	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
LD-43D vs D	● Jamie PedersenINC● No RepublicanAlso: Hannah Sabio-Howell (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+85	—
LD-44	● John LovickINC● Sherri Larkin	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.7D+26.0	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
LD-45	● Manka DhingraINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
LD-46	● Javier ValdezINC● Sandra Stephens	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+76.5D+85.0	Solid DSolid D	D+82	—
LD-47	● Claudia KauffmanINC● Kristina Soltys	99%1% 97%3%	D+21.9D+20.7	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
LD-48	● Vandana SlatterINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+48	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.