Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Alaska House of Representatives?
All 40 seats are on the ballot. 21 seats make a majority.
The bipartisan coalition is favored to hold a majority of the Alaska House of Representatives. The coalition keeps a majority in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Coalition
73%
chance of a majority
Republicans
27%
- Avg. D seats
- 16.580% range 15–18
- Avg. R seats
- 23.580% range 22–25
- Now
- 14 D · 21 R · 5 other40 up this year
Coalition: A bipartisan majority coalition of Democrats, independents and a few Republicans (21 of 40 members) has run the House since 2025. The coalition count is Democrats, independents and the Republicans in the current majority (on average 21.2 of 40 seats); Democrats alone win a majority in fewer than 1 of every 100 simulations. Races between candidates of one party (a coalition Republican against a conservative challenger) are not simulated: the incumbent, or in an open seat a sitting legislator, is counted as the winner.
It's a toss-up. The coalition keeps a majority in about 1 of every 2 simulations.
Coalition
55%
chance of a majority
Republicans
45%
- Avg. D seats
- 16.180% range 14–18
- Avg. R seats
- 23.980% range 22–26
- Now
- 14 D · 21 R · 5 other40 up this year
Coalition: A bipartisan majority coalition of Democrats, independents and a few Republicans (21 of 40 members) has run the House since 2025. The coalition count is Democrats, independents and the Republicans in the current majority (on average 20.5 of 40 seats); Democrats alone win a majority in fewer than 1 of every 100 simulations. Races between candidates of one party (a coalition Republican against a conservative challenger) are not simulated: the incumbent, or in an open seat a sitting legislator, is counted as the winner.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 40 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D.
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Toss-up0
Lean R1
Likely R0
Independent or other, settled: HD-14
Lean R0
Likely R1
Independent or other, settled: HD-14
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Alaska
Anchorage
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
HD-18Cliff GrohDan SagerD flipFlip risk78%to flip49%to flip HD-15Denny WellsMia CostelloD flipD flip71%to flip73%to flip HD-11Danni HallJulie CoulombeD flip38%to flip69%to flip HD-31Maxine DibertAimeé Moore9%to flip32%to flip HD-23Jim ArlingtonJamie Allard4%to flip10%to flip HD-21Donna MearsAimeé Sims2%to flip6%to flip HD-35Ashley CarrickJeff Rentzel1%to flip7%to flip HD-38Nellie “Unangiq” JimmieWilly Keppel<1%to flip2%to flip HD-3Andi StoryAnnette Kreitzer<1%to flip2%to flip HD-16Carolyn HallLiz Vazquez<1%to flip1%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
40 races, 20 without a contest between the major parties.
40 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1 | ● No Democrat● Jeremy BynumINCAlso: Grant Echohawk (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+18 | — | |
| HD-2 | ● Rebecca HimschootINC● Kenny Karl SkaflestadAlso: Alston Evans (I) | D+11.4D+7.8 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-3 | ● Andi StoryINC● Annette Kreitzer | D+27.0D+21.1 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-4 | ● Sara HannanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+38 | — | |
| HD-5 | ● No Democrat● Sheldon ProutAlso: Kathy Simpler (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+13 | — | |
| HD-6 | ● No Democrat● Sarah VanceINCAlso: Brent Johnson (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+16 | — | |
| HD-7 | ● Kate Veh● Justin RuffridgeINC | R+37.4R+39.2 | R+46 | — | ||
| HD-8 | ● No Democrat● Bill ElamINCAlso: Nissa Savage (I), Frank Quinn (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+50 | — | |
| HD-9 | ● Ky HollandINC● John Boyle | D+12.1D+8.7 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-10 | ● No Democrat● Chuck KoppINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+3 | — | |
| HD-11D flip | ● Danni Hall● Julie CoulombeINC | R+2.5D+4.7 | R+4 | — | ||
| HD-12 | ● Calvin SchrageINC● Jieun McDonald | D+14.6D+9.5 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-13 | ● Lisa Keller● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+2 | — | |
| HD-14 | ● Alyse GalvinINC● No RepublicanAlso: Russell Wyatt (I) | No major-party candidateNo major-party candidate | — | D+22 | — | |
| HD-15D flipD flip | ● Denny Wells● Mia CostelloINC | D+3.9D+5.9 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-16 | ● Carolyn HallINC● Liz VazquezAlso: Phil Isley (I) | D+28.5D+23.7 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-17 | ● Zack FieldsINC● Daniel Bradley | D+44.0D+41.3 | D+35 | — | ||
| HD-18D flipFlip risk | ● Cliff Groh● Dan Sager | D+5.9R+0.1 | R+9 | — | ||
| HD-19 | ● Genevieve MinaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — | |
| HD-20 | ● Andrew GrayINC● No RepublicanAlso: Paul Bauer (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+13 | — | |
| HD-21 | ● Donna MearsINC● Aimeé Sims | D+16.5D+15.7 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-22 | ● Ted EischeidINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+3 | — | |
| HD-23 | ● Jim Arlington● Jamie AllardINCAlso: Ruby Jones (R), Lee Hammermeister (D) | R+13.9R+12.8 | R+20 | — | ||
| HD-24R vs R | ● No Democrat● Ken McCartyAlso: Gina Wall (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+33 | — | |
| HD-25R vs R | ● No Democrat● DeLena JohnsonINCAlso: Steven Merritt (I), Michael Bowles (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+37 | — | |
| HD-26 | ● Jeanne Troshynski● Steve St. ClairINC | R+44.0R+49.3 | R+56 | — | ||
| HD-27R vs R | ● No Democrat● Jubilee UnderwoodINCAlso: David Eastman (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+58 | — | |
| HD-28 | ● Kit Kennedy● Elexie MooreINCAlso: Stephen Wright (R) | R+41.0R+43.8 | R+50 | — | ||
| HD-29 | ● Kimberly Stone● Garret NelsonINCAlso: Steve Menard (R), Jessica Kusner-Kalarchik (I) | R+37.1R+39.6 | R+46 | — | ||
| HD-30 | ● Sandra Loomis● Kevin J. McCabeINCAlso: Doug Massie (R) | R+37.8R+38.5 | R+45 | — | ||
| HD-31 | ● Maxine DibertINC● Aimeé MooreAlso: Jonathan Powell-Mark (L) | D+10.6D+4.4 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-32 | ● No Democrat● Will StappINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+32 | — | |
| HD-33R vs R | ● No Democrat● Mike PraxINCAlso: Pepper McFarland (I), Barbara Haney (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+53 | — | |
| HD-34 | ● No Democrat● Harmony TomaszewskiAlso: Joy Beth Cottle (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+22 | — | |
| HD-35 | ● Ashley CarrickINC● Jeff RentzelAlso: Bridger Terra (I) | D+18.7D+14.7 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-36 | ● No Democrat● Rebecca SchwankeINCAlso: Crystal Jones (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+21 | — | |
| HD-37D flipD flip | ● Evelynn Trefon● Brenda WilsonAlso: Mark Smith (I), Cade Woods (I) | D+4.3D+2.1 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-38 | ● Nellie “Unangiq” JimmieINC● Willy KeppelAlso: CJ McCormick (D), Joseph Amik (I) | D+29.1D+22.4 | D+17 | — | ||
| HD-39 | ● Neal “Quannaq” FosterINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tyler Ivanoff (I), Papa Joe Okitkun (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+17 | — | |
| HD-40D vs D | ● Robyn Niayuq FrierINC● No RepublicanAlso: Saima Chase (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | R+7 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.