Oregon · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Oregon House of Representatives?

All 60 seats are on the ballot. 31 seats make a majority. 40 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Oregon House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 38.880% range 37–41
Avg. R seats: 21.280% range 19–23
Now: 37 D · 23 R60 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (40+ seats): 29%

37 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party23 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Oregon House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 38.980% range 36–42
Avg. R seats: 21.180% range 18–24
Now: 37 D · 23 R60 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (40+ seats): 41%

37 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party23 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 60 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.

Solid D35

Show 29 more

Likely D3

Lean D1

HD-21flip

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R4

Solid R17

Show 11 more

Solid D29

Show 23 more

Likely D9

Lean D1

HD-32

Toss-up0

Lean R4

Likely R2

Solid R15

Show 9 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Oregon

Portland

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-21Michael WelshKevin L MannixD flipD flip65%Dem.82%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-52Hank SandersScott C HegeD flipD flip87%to flip81%to flip HD-21Michael WelshKevin L MannixD flipD flip65%to flip82%to flip HD-15Joanna RobinsonShelly Boshart Davis19%to flip37%to flip HD-12Amber SmithDarin Harbick13%to flip28%to flip HD-32Cyrus JavadiMax Sherman12%to flip27%to flip HD-6John P HolmKim Wallan11%to flip24%to flip HD-9John Ezra ScheirmanClaire Lynn7%to flip21%to flip HD-48Lamar WiseAndrew Morrison6%to flip12%to flip HD-31Tom L ForestDarcey Edwards5%to flip14%to flip HD-22Lesly M MunozNoemi Legaspi5%to flip15%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Cross-party nominations

A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.

Two-thirds quorum

Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

60 races, 12 without a contest between the major parties.

60 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Bret Cecil● Court BoiceINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.7R+29.0	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-2	● No Democrat● Virgle J OsborneINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-3	● Susan Fischer-Maki● Dwayne YunkerINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+24.1R+23.8	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● Alek SkarlatosINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+37	—
HD-5	● Pam MarshINC● Alexander Krigsvold	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.6D+27.8	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-6	● John P Holm● Kim WallanINC	11%89% 24%76%	R+9.1R+6.7	Likely RLean R	R+7	—
HD-7	● Kori Rodley● Adam Wilson	95%5% 89%11%	D+12.9D+12.2	Solid DLikely D	D+13	—
HD-8	● Lisa FragalaINC● Bill Vivian	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.7D+70.5	Solid DSolid D	D+70	—
HD-9	● John Ezra Scheirman● Claire Lynn	7%93% 21%79%	R+11.6R+7.8	Likely RLean R	R+9	—
HD-10	● David GombergINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+13	—
HD-11	● Ivan Maluski● Ken Jackola	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.2R+37.0	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-12	● Amber Smith● Darin HarbickINC	13%87% 28%72%	R+8.4R+5.5	Likely RLean R	R+7	—
HD-13	● Nancy NathansonINC● Jonathan T Abrahamsen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.3D+32.7	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
HD-14	● Julie FaheyINC● Kevin T Burton	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.5D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-15	● Joanna Robinson● Shelly Boshart DavisINC	19%81% 37%63%	R+6.7R+3.0	Likely RLean R	R+4	—
HD-16	● Sarah Finger McDonaldINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+57	—
HD-17	● David Nelson● Dan Farrington	1%99% 2%98%	R+17.4R+20.5	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-18	● Roy Kaufmann● Amanda StaehelyAlso: Patrick Marnell (L)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.7R+26.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-19	● Tom AndersenINC● Anna Munson	99%1% 96%4%	D+19.0D+17.4	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-20	● Paul EvansINC● Andrew FudgeAlso: Taylor A Rickey (L)	99%1% 94%6%	D+19.0D+15.0	Solid DLikely D	D+16	—
HD-21D flipD flip	● Michael Welsh● Kevin L MannixINC	65%35% 82%18%	D+3.0D+8.9	Lean DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-22	● Lesly M MunozINC● Noemi Legaspi	95%5% 85%15%	D+13.0D+10.3	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-23	● Kriss Wright● Anna M ScharfINC	3%97% 10%90%	R+15.6R+12.3	Solid RLikely R	R+13	—
HD-24	● No Democrat● Lucetta A ElmerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+7	—
HD-25	● Ben BowmanINC● Bob Niemeyer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.6D+38.1	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
HD-26	● Sue R Rieke SmithINC● Stephanie CarkinAlso: Steph Terrio (PRG)	99%1% 98%2%	D+20.6D+20.9	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-27	● Tammy Carpenter● G Mark Norman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.4D+51.3	Solid DSolid D	D+52	—
HD-28	● Dacia GrayberINC● Randall Fryer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.6D+76.6	Solid DSolid D	D+74	—
HD-29	● Susan McLainINC● Brian Schimmel	99%1% 96%4%	D+24.5D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-30	● Nathan SosaINC● Charles A Ross	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.9D+37.3	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
HD-31	● Tom L Forest● Darcey EdwardsINC	5%95% 14%86%	R+12.9R+10.1	Solid RLikely R	R+11	—
HD-32	● Cyrus JavadiINC● Max Sherman	88%12% 73%27%	D+8.6D+5.8	Likely DLean D	D+5	—
HD-33	● Shannon Jones IsadoreINC● Ciatta R Thompson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+69.8D+81.2	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
HD-34	● Mari WatanabeINC● Shaunie Cousins	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.8D+49.4	Solid DSolid D	D+48	—
HD-35	● Farrah ChaichiINC● Dan Martin	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.2D+40.5	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
HD-36	● Hai PhamINC● Michael Orth	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+30.5D+31.2	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-37	● Jules WaltersINC● Chad Parker	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+29.2D+31.3	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-38	● Daniel Loc NguyenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+59	—
HD-39	● April DobsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+17	—
HD-40	● Michael W Sugar● Adam BakerAlso: Pat Hubbell (I)	97%3% 91%9%	D+15.0D+12.9	Solid DLikely D	D+13	—
HD-41	● Mark GambaINC● Elvis Clark	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.0D+62.2	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
HD-42	● Rob NosseINC● No RepublicanAlso: Morey Straus (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+89	—
HD-43	● Tawna SanchezINC● Tim LeMaster	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+80.4D+91.9	Solid DSolid D	D+90	—
HD-44	● Travis NelsonINC● Margo Logan	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+71.3D+81.3	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
HD-45	● Thuy TranINC● Jason Boyce	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+67.1D+75.6	Solid DSolid D	D+74	—
HD-46	● Willy ChotzenINC● Leo Morley	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.8D+68.4	Solid DSolid D	D+67	—
HD-47	● Andrea ValderramaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-48	● Lamar WiseINC● Andrew Morrison	94%6% 88%12%	D+11.4D+11.3	Likely DLikely D	D+11	—
HD-49	● Zach HudsonINC● Ann Walker	99%1% 96%4%	D+19.0D+17.6	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-50	● Ricki RuizINC● Brian Gray	98%2% 91%9%	D+16.1D+12.9	Solid DLikely D	D+12	—
HD-51	● Darla Mead● Matt BunchINC	3%97% 5%95%	R+14.4R+16.5	Solid RSolid R	R+19	—
HD-52D flipD flip	● Hank Sanders● Scott C Hege	87%13% 81%19%	D+8.3D+8.4	Likely DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-53	● Emerson LevyINC● Michael Summers	96%4% 88%12%	D+13.6D+11.4	Solid DLikely D	D+12	—
HD-54	● Jason KropfINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+34	—
HD-55	● Colby M Simmons● E Werner ReschkeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.3R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-56	● No Democrat● Emily G McIntireINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-57	● No Democrat● Greg SmithINCAlso: Josiah Dean (G)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+38	—
HD-58	● Brian Campbell● Bobby LevyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.1R+36.2	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-59	● Lawrence Jones● Vikki Breese-IversonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.0R+34.4	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-60	● Beth Spell● Mark OwensINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.1R+51.3	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.