Massachusetts · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Massachusetts House of Representatives?
All 160 seats are on the ballot. 81 seats make a majority. 107 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the Massachusetts House of Representatives (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 141.080% range 136–145
- Avg. R seats
- 19.080% range 15–24
- Now
- 131 D · 25 R · 1 other · 3 vacant160 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (131 of 160 seats; 107 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
131 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party25 R now
Democrats are very likely to control the Massachusetts House of Representatives (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 142.680% range 138–147
- Avg. R seats
- 17.480% range 13–22
- Now
- 131 D · 25 R · 1 other · 3 vacant160 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (131 of 160 seats; 107 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
131 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party25 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 160 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
12 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D, 1 D→R. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D129
Show 123 more
- 1st Barnstable
- 1st Berkshire
- 1st Essex
- 1st Franklin
- 1st Hampshire
- 1st Norfolk
- 1st Suffolk
- 2nd Barnstable
- 2nd Berkshire
- 2nd Bristol
- 2nd Essex
- 2nd Hampden
- 2nd Hampshire
- 2nd Middlesex
- 2nd Norfolk
- 2nd Suffolk
- 3rd Berkshire
- 3rd Essex
- 3rd Hampshire
- 3rd Middlesex
- 3rd Norfolk
- 3rd Plymouth
- 3rd Suffolk
- 3rd Worcester
- 4th Barnstable
- 4th Essex
- 4th Middlesex
- 4th Norfolk
- 4th Plymouth
- 4th Suffolk
- 4th Worcester
- 5th Essex
- 5th Hampden
- 5th Middlesex
- 5th Norfolk
- 5th Suffolk
- 6th Essex
- 6th Hampden
- 6th Middlesex
- 6th Norfolk
- 6th Suffolk
- 7th Essex
- 7th Hampden
- 7th Middlesex
- 7th Norfolk
- 7th Suffolk
- 8th Essex
- 8th Hampden
- 8th Middlesex
- 8th Norfolk
- 8th Suffolk
- 9th Hampden
- 9th Middlesex
- 9th Plymouth
- 9th Suffolk
- 10th Bristol
- 10th Essex
- 10th Hampden
- 10th Middlesex
- 10th Norfolk
- 10th Plymouth
- 10th Suffolk
- 10th Worcester
- 11th Bristol
- 11th Essex
- 11th Hampden
- 11th Middlesex
- 11th Norfolk
- 11th Plymouth
- 11th Suffolk
- 12th Essex
- 12th Hampden
- 12th Middlesex
- 12th Norfolk
- 12th Suffolk
- 12th Worcester
- 13th Bristol
- 13th Essex
- 13th Middlesex
- 13th Norfolk
- 13th Suffolk
- 13th Worcester
- 14th Bristol
- 14th Essex
- 14th Middlesex
- 14th Norfolk
- 14th Suffolk
- 14th Worcester
- 15th Middlesex
- 15th Norfolk
- 15th Suffolk
- 15th Worcester
- 16th Essex
- 16th Middlesex
- 16th Suffolk
- 16th Worcester
- 17th Essex
- 17th Middlesex
- 17th Suffolk
- 17th Worcester
- 18th Essex
- 18th Middlesex
- 18th Suffolk
- 19th Middlesex
- 19th Suffolk
- 19th Worcester
- 21st Middlesex
- 23rd Middlesex
- 24th Middlesex
- 25th Middlesex
- 26th Middlesex
- 27th Middlesex
- 28th Middlesex
- 29th Middlesex
- 30th Middlesex
- 31st Middlesex
- 32nd Middlesex
- 33rd Middlesex
- 34th Middlesex
- 35th Middlesex
- 36th Middlesex
- 37th Middlesex
- Barnstable-Dukes-Nantucket
Likely D7
Likely R2
Independent or other, settled: 2nd Franklin
Solid D125
Show 119 more
- 1st Barnstable
- 1st Berkshire
- 1st Essex
- 1st Franklin
- 1st Hampshire
- 1st Norfolk
- 1st Suffolk
- 2nd Barnstable
- 2nd Berkshire
- 2nd Bristol
- 2nd Essex
- 2nd Hampshire
- 2nd Middlesex
- 2nd Norfolk
- 2nd Suffolk
- 3rd Berkshire
- 3rd Essex
- 3rd Hampshire
- 3rd Middlesex
- 3rd Norfolk
- 3rd Plymouth
- 3rd Suffolk
- 3rd Worcester
- 4th Barnstable
- 4th Essex
- 4th Middlesex
- 4th Norfolk
- 4th Plymouth
- 4th Suffolk
- 5th Essex
- 5th Hampden
- 5th Middlesex
- 5th Norfolk
- 5th Suffolk
- 6th Essex
- 6th Hampden
- 6th Middlesex
- 6th Norfolk
- 6th Suffolk
- 7th Essex
- 7th Hampden
- 7th Middlesex
- 7th Norfolk
- 7th Suffolk
- 8th Essex
- 8th Hampden
- 8th Middlesex
- 8th Norfolk
- 8th Suffolk
- 9th Hampden
- 9th Middlesex
- 9th Suffolk
- 10th Bristol
- 10th Essex
- 10th Hampden
- 10th Middlesex
- 10th Norfolk
- 10th Plymouth
- 10th Suffolk
- 10th Worcester
- 11th Bristol
- 11th Essex
- 11th Hampden
- 11th Middlesex
- 11th Norfolk
- 11th Plymouth
- 11th Suffolk
- 12th Essex
- 12th Hampden
- 12th Middlesex
- 12th Norfolk
- 12th Suffolk
- 13th Bristol
- 13th Essex
- 13th Middlesex
- 13th Norfolk
- 13th Suffolk
- 13th Worcester
- 14th Bristol
- 14th Essex
- 14th Middlesex
- 14th Norfolk
- 14th Suffolk
- 14th Worcester
- 15th Middlesex
- 15th Norfolk
- 15th Suffolk
- 15th Worcester
- 16th Essex
- 16th Middlesex
- 16th Suffolk
- 16th Worcester
- 17th Essex
- 17th Middlesex
- 17th Suffolk
- 17th Worcester
- 18th Essex
- 18th Middlesex
- 18th Suffolk
- 19th Middlesex
- 19th Suffolk
- 19th Worcester
- 21st Middlesex
- 23rd Middlesex
- 24th Middlesex
- 25th Middlesex
- 26th Middlesex
- 27th Middlesex
- 28th Middlesex
- 29th Middlesex
- 30th Middlesex
- 31st Middlesex
- 32nd Middlesex
- 33rd Middlesex
- 34th Middlesex
- 35th Middlesex
- 36th Middlesex
- 37th Middlesex
- Barnstable-Dukes-Nantucket
Likely D10
Lean D9
Lean R2
Likely R0
Independent or other, settled: 2nd Franklin
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Massachusetts
Boston
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
22nd MiddlesexDaniel Darris-O'ConnorMarc LombardoFlip riskD flip53%Dem.87%Dem. 5th BristolJamison SouzaJustin ThurberFlip riskFlip risk55%Rep.51%Dem. 5th PlymouthLori ChildsDavid DeCosteFlip riskD flip57%Rep.76%Dem. 4th HampdenColby HoffmanKelly PeaseFlip riskD flip58%Rep.70%Dem. 8th BristolSteven OuelletteJesse St. GelaisR flip61%Dem.67%Rep. 7th WorcesterNicholas LazzaroPaul FrostD flip65%Rep.75%Dem. 9th EssexPeter MeaneyDonald WongD flipD flip67%Dem.90%Dem. 7th PlymouthRosemary Aahanna-HillAlyson Sullivan-AlmeidaD flip73%Rep.67%Dem. 6th WorcesterJeanne Renaud CostelloJohn MarsiFlip risk76%Rep.53%Dem. 6th PlymouthJessica Bradley RushingKenneth SweezeyD flipD flip77%Dem.87%Dem.
Most likely to flip
3rd BarnstableJack P. RichardsonDavid VieiraD flipD flip94%to flip98%to flip 9th NorfolkTom MelvilleMarcus VaughnD flipD flip91%to flip97%to flip 20th MiddlesexJoseph MarkeyTrevor CurrierD flipD flip85%to flip91%to flip 1st WorcesterKrista FerranteStephanie MulroyD flipD flip80%to flip89%to flip 6th PlymouthJessica Bradley RushingKenneth SweezeyD flipD flip77%to flip87%to flip 9th EssexPeter MeaneyDonald WongD flipD flip67%to flip90%to flip 22nd MiddlesexDaniel Darris-O'ConnorMarc LombardoFlip riskD flip53%to flip87%to flip 5th BristolJamison SouzaJustin ThurberFlip riskFlip risk45%to flip51%to flip 5th PlymouthLori ChildsDavid DeCosteFlip riskD flip43%to flip76%to flip 4th HampdenColby HoffmanKelly PeaseFlip riskD flip42%to flip70%to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
160 races, 124 without a contest between the major parties.
160 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st BarnstableD vs D | ● Chris Lambton● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+22 | — | |
| 1st BerkshireD vs D | ● John BarrettINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+33 | — | |
| 1st Bristol | ● No Democrat● Michael ChaissonINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| 1st EssexD vs D | ● Dawne ShandINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+29 | — | |
| 1st FranklinD vs D | ● Corinne Coryat● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+47 | — | |
| 1st Hampden | ● No Democrat● Todd SmolaINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+6 | — | |
| 1st Hampshire | ● Lindsay SabadosaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+65 | — | |
| 1st Middlesex | ● Margaret ScarsdaleINC● Chris Lyons | D+17.9D+15.0 | D+10 | — | ||
| 1st Norfolk | ● Bruce AyersINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| 1st Plymouth | ● Michelle BadgerINC● David Golden Jr. | D+17.4D+13.9 | D+10 | — | ||
| 1st Suffolk | ● Adrian MadaroINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+45 | — | |
| 1st WorcesterD flipD flip | ● Krista Ferrante● Stephanie Mulroy | D+6.5D+12.2 | D+8 | — | ||
| 2nd Barnstable | ● Kip DiggsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+16 | — | |
| 2nd Berkshire | ● Tricia Farley-BouvierINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+46 | — | |
| 2nd Bristol | ● Jim HawkinsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+13 | — | |
| 2nd Essex | ● Kristin KassnerINC● Dan Kelly | D+26.0D+27.1 | D+23 | — | ||
| 2nd Franklin | ● Susannah WhippsINC● No Republican | No major-party candidateNo major-party candidate | — | D+12 | — | |
| 2nd Hampden | ● Brian AsheINC● Peter Warren | D+22.7D+14.9 | D+10 | — | ||
| 2nd Hampshire | ● Homar GomezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+36 | — | |
| 2nd Middlesex | ● James ArcieroINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| 2nd Norfolk | ● Tackey ChanINC● Sharon Cintolo | D+37.9D+35.8 | D+29 | — | ||
| 2nd PlymouthFlip risk | ● Sarah Hewins● John GaskeyINC | R+8.5D+0.1 | R+4 | — | ||
| 2nd Suffolk | ● Daniel Joseph RyanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+59 | — | |
| 2nd Worcester | ● Mike Nicholson● Nate Boudreau | D+8.1D+5.0 | Even | — | ||
| 3rd BarnstableD flipD flip | ● Jack P. Richardson● David VieiraINC | D+13.0D+21.2 | D+19 | — | ||
| 3rd Berkshire | ● Leigh DavisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+48 | — | |
| 3rd Bristol | ● Lisa FieldINC● Larry Quintal | D+15.8D+15.0 | D+9 | — | ||
| 3rd Essex | ● Andy VargasINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| 3rd Hampden | ● Thomas D. Hendrickson● Nicholas BoldygaINC | R+12.6R+6.4 | R+11 | — | ||
| 3rd Hampshire | ● Mindy DombINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+72 | — | |
| 3rd Middlesex | ● Kate HoganINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+37 | — | |
| 3rd Norfolk | ● Ron MarianoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| 3rd Plymouth | ● Joan MeschinoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| 3rd Suffolk | ● Aaron MichlewitzINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+58 | — | |
| 3rd Worcester | ● Mike KushmerekINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+15 | — | |
| 4th Barnstable | ● Hadley LuddyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+40 | — | |
| 4th Bristol | ● No Democrat● Steven S. HowittINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+4 | — | |
| 4th Essex | ● Estela ReyesINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — | |
| 4th HampdenFlip riskD flip | ● Colby Hoffman● Kelly PeaseINC | R+1.5D+4.9 | R+1 | — | ||
| 4th Middlesex | ● Danielle GregoireINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| 4th Norfolk | ● James M. MurphyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+16 | — | |
| 4th PlymouthD vs D | ● Patrick J. KearneyINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+17 | — | |
| 4th Suffolk | ● David BieleINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — | |
| 4th Worcester | ● Natalie HigginsINC● Josh Bowdridge | D+20.4D+18.6 | D+12 | — | ||
| 5th Barnstable | ● No Democrat● Steven XiarhosINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+6 | — | |
| 5th BristolFlip riskFlip risk | ● Jamison Souza● Justin ThurberINC | R+0.9D+0.2 | R+5 | — | ||
| 5th Essex | ● Andrew "Dru" TarrINC● Christine Delisio | D+38.8D+40.4 | D+36 | — | ||
| 5th HampdenD vs D | ● Patricia DuffyINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+32 | — | |
| 5th Middlesex | ● David LinskyINC● Luisa Cestari | D+54.1D+57.4 | D+52 | — | ||
| 5th Norfolk | ● Mark CusackINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+10 | — | |
| 5th PlymouthFlip riskD flip | ● Lori Childs● David DeCosteINC | R+1.4D+6.5 | D+2 | — | ||
| 5th Suffolk | ● Christopher WorrellINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+73 | — | |
| 5th Worcester | ● No Democrat● Donnie BerthiaumeINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+8 | — | |
| 6th Bristol | ● Carole FiolaINC● Robert Anctil | D+20.2D+10.4 | D+4 | — | ||
| 6th Essex | ● Hannah BowenINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+37 | — | |
| 6th Hampden | ● Michael FinnINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+2 | — | |
| 6th Middlesex | ● Priscila SousaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+43 | — | |
| 6th NorfolkD vs D | ● Steve Cavey● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+25 | — | |
| 6th PlymouthD flipD flip | ● Jessica Bradley Rushing● Kenneth SweezeyINC | D+5.9D+11.0 | D+7 | — | ||
| 6th Suffolk | ● Russell HolmesINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+77 | — | |
| 6th WorcesterFlip risk | ● Jeanne Renaud Costello● John MarsiINC | R+5.3D+0.7 | R+5 | — | ||
| 7th Bristol | ● Alan SilviaINC● Talos Farris | D+14.4D+5.1 | R+1 | — | ||
| 7th Essex | ● Manny CruzINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+49 | — | |
| 7th Hampden | ● Aaron SaundersINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| 7th Middlesex | ● Jack Patrick LewisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+43 | — | |
| 7th NorfolkD vs D | ● Richard WellsINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+47 | — | |
| 7th PlymouthD flip | ● Rosemary Aahanna-Hill● Alyson Sullivan-AlmeidaINC | R+5.0D+4.1 | R+1 | — | ||
| 7th Suffolk | ● Chynah TylerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+78 | — | |
| 7th WorcesterD flip | ● Nicholas Lazzaro● Paul FrostINC | R+3.1D+6.2 | D+1 | — | ||
| 8th BristolR flip | ● Steven OuelletteINC● Jesse St. Gelais | D+2.1R+4.0 | R+9 | — | ||
| 8th Essex | ● Jenny ArminiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+41 | — | |
| 8th Hampden | ● Shirley ArriagaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| 8th Middlesex | ● James Arena-DeRosaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+39 | — | |
| 8th Norfolk | ● Ted PhilipsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+35 | — | |
| 8th Plymouth | ● Dennis GallagherINC● John Norris | D+8.9D+4.6 | R+1 | — | ||
| 8th Suffolk | ● Jay LivingstoneINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+68 | — | |
| 8th Worcester | ● No Democrat● Michael SoterINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+1 | — | |
| 9th Bristol | ● Stephen J. Medeiros● Henry Bousquet | D+12.2D+7.3 | D+2 | — | ||
| 9th EssexD flipD flip | ● Peter Meaney● Donald WongINC | D+3.5D+12.3 | D+5 | — | ||
| 9th Hampden | ● Orlando RamosINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — | |
| 9th Middlesex | ● Thomas M. StanleyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+38 | — | |
| 9th NorfolkD flipD flip | ● Tom Melville● Marcus VaughnINC | D+11.3D+20.1 | D+15 | — | ||
| 9th Plymouth | ● Bridget PlouffeINC● Larry Novak | D+26.0D+24.0 | D+18 | — | ||
| 9th Suffolk | ● John F. MoranINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+73 | — | |
| 9th Worcester | ● No Democrat● David MuradianINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| 10th Bristol | ● Mark SylviaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+4 | — | |
| 10th Essex | ● Daniel CahillINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| 10th Hampden | ● Carlos GonzálezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+46 | — | |
| 10th MiddlesexD vs D | ● John J. LawnINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+47 | — | |
| 10th Norfolk | ● Jeffrey RoyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| 10th Plymouth | ● Michelle DuBoisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+43 | — | |
| 10th Suffolk | ● Bill MacGregorINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+50 | — | |
| 10th Worcester | ● Brian MurrayINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| 11th Bristol | ● Christopher HendricksINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+16 | — | |
| 11th Essex | ● Sean ReidINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| 11th HampdenD vs D | ● Bud WilliamsINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+49 | — | |
| 11th Middlesex | ● Amy Mah SangioloINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+66 | — | |
| 11th Norfolk | ● Paul McMurtryINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| 11th Plymouth | ● Rita MendesINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+58 | — | |
| 11th Suffolk | ● Judith GarcíaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+41 | — | |
| 11th Worcester | ● No Democrat● Hannah KaneINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| 12th Bristol | ● No Democrat● Norman OrrallINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+9 | — | |
| 12th Essex | ● Thomas WalshINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+11 | — | |
| 12th HampdenD vs D | ● Angelo PuppoloINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+13 | — | |
| 12th Middlesex | ● Greg SchwartzINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+64 | — | |
| 12th Norfolk | ● John H. RogersINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| 12th Plymouth | ● Kathleen LaNatraINC● Eric J. Meschino | D+13.0D+7.4 | D+3 | — | ||
| 12th Suffolk | ● Brandy Fluker-ReidINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+77 | — | |
| 12th Worcester | ● Meghan KilcoyneINC● Lisa Mair | D+27.8D+20.8 | D+16 | — | ||
| 13th Bristol | ● Antonio CabralINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+18 | — | |
| 13th Essex | ● Sally KeransINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| 13th Middlesex | ● Ravi Simon● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+57 | — | |
| 13th Norfolk | ● Joshua TarskyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+51 | — | |
| 13th Suffolk | ● Daniel J. HuntINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+39 | — | |
| 13th Worcester | ● John J. MahoneyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+36 | — | |
| 14th Bristol | ● Adam ScanlonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+12 | — | |
| 14th Essex | ● Adrianne RamosINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| 14th Middlesex | ● Simon CataldoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+49 | — | |
| 14th Norfolk | ● Alice PeischINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+53 | — | |
| 14th Suffolk | ● Robert ConsalvoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+60 | — | |
| 14th WorcesterD vs D | ● Jim O'DayINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+30 | — | |
| 15th Essex | ● No Democrat● Ronald Heiseler III | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+5 | — | |
| 15th Middlesex | ● Michelle CiccoloINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+50 | — | |
| 15th Norfolk | ● Tommy VitoloINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+78 | — | |
| 15th SuffolkD vs D | ● Sam MontañoINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+83 | — | |
| 15th WorcesterD vs D | ● Mary KeefeINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+36 | — | |
| 16th EssexD vs D | ● Francisco E. PaulinoINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+18 | — | |
| 16th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Lorena Betts● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+20 | — | |
| 16th Suffolk | ● Jessica GianninoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+5 | — | |
| 16th Worcester | ● Dan DonahueINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+23 | — | |
| 17th Essex | ● Frank A. MoranINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| 17th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Harini Aiyer● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+26 | — | |
| 17th Suffolk | ● Kevin HonanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+72 | — | |
| 17th Worcester | ● David LeBoeufINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+21 | — | |
| 18th Essex | ● Connor Murray● Christopher Shepley | D+30.4D+28.7 | D+23 | — | ||
| 18th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Tara HongINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+31 | — | |
| 18th Suffolk | ● Michael MoranINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+64 | — | |
| 18th Worcester | ● Jen Heck● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+8 | — | |
| 19th Middlesex | ● Dave RobertsonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+3 | — | |
| 19th SuffolkD vs D | ● Jeffrey TurcoINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+19 | — | |
| 19th Worcester | ● Kate DonaghueINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+40 | — | |
| 20th MiddlesexD flipD flip | ● Joseph Markey● Trevor Currier | D+8.1D+13.7 | D+8 | — | ||
| 21st Middlesex | ● Ken GordonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — | |
| 22nd MiddlesexFlip riskD flip | ● Daniel Darris-O'Connor● Marc LombardoINC | D+0.5D+11.0 | D+4 | — | ||
| 23rd Middlesex | ● Sean GarballeyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+63 | — | |
| 24th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Dave RogersINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+66 | — | |
| 25th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Marjorie DeckerINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+89 | — | |
| 26th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Mike ConnollyINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+78 | — | |
| 27th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Ben Ewen-Campen● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+81 | — | |
| 28th Middlesex | ● Joe McGonagleINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| 29th Middlesex | ● Steven OwensINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+71 | — | |
| 30th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Richard HaggertyINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+24 | — | |
| 31st Middlesex | ● Michael S. DayINC● Stephen Ternullo | D+39.4D+36.1 | D+30 | — | ||
| 32nd MiddlesexD vs D | ● Jay Higgins● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+41 | — | |
| 33rd Middlesex | ● Steven UltrinoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+41 | — | |
| 34th MiddlesexD vs D | ● Will Mbah● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+64 | — | |
| 35th Middlesex | ● Paul DonatoINC● Jake Seibel | D+48.6D+47.1 | D+41 | — | ||
| 36th Middlesex | ● Colleen GarryINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+3 | — | |
| 37th Middlesex | ● Danillo SenaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+44 | — | |
| Barnstable-Dukes-Nantucket | ● Thomas MoakleyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+48 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.