South Dakota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the South Dakota House of Representatives?

All 70 seats are on the ballot. 36 seats make a majority. 47 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the South Dakota House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 11.480% range 6–17
Avg. R seats: 58.680% range 53–64
Now: 5 D · 65 R70 up this year

Republican supermajority now (65 of 70 seats; 47 needed for two-thirds): 99% chance it holds · 1% chance it's broken.

5 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party65 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the South Dakota House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 11.580% range 6–17
Avg. R seats: 58.580% range 53–64
Now: 5 D · 65 R70 up this year

Republican supermajority now (65 of 70 seats; 47 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

5 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party65 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 37 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D3

Likely D0

Lean D1

LD-32

Toss-up3

Lean R3

Likely R3

Solid R24

Show 18 more

Solid D1

LD-26A

Likely D2

Lean D1

LD-14flip

Toss-up2

Lean R4

Likely R4

Solid R23

Show 17 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

South Dakota

Sioux Falls

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-12Stephanie ArneAmber ArlintFlip riskFlip risk2 seats55%Rep.56%Dem. LD-14Erinn WilliamsTaylor RehfeldtFlip riskD flip2 seats57%Dem.67%Dem. LD-28AChastity "Chas" JewettJana HuntFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.53%Dem. LD-7Blake StevensMellissa Heermann2 seats65%Rep.61%Rep. LD-11Sonja MentzerKeri Weems2 seats69%Rep.65%Rep. LD-32Nicole Uhre-BalkSteve DuffyR flip2 seats71%Dem.62%Rep. LD-13Ali Rae HorstedJack Kolbeck2 seats79%Rep.72%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-14Erinn WilliamsTaylor RehfeldtFlip riskD flip2 seats57%to flip67%to flip LD-12Stephanie ArneAmber ArlintFlip riskFlip risk2 seats45%to flip56%to flip LD-28AChastity "Chas" JewettJana HuntFlip riskFlip risk42%to flip53%to flip LD-7Blake StevensMellissa Heermann2 seats35%to flip39%to flip LD-11Sonja MentzerKeri Weems2 seats31%to flip35%to flip LD-32Nicole Uhre-BalkSteve DuffyR flip2 seats29%to flip62%to flip LD-13Ali Rae HorstedJack Kolbeck2 seats21%to flip28%to flip LD-17Austin BrunickChris Kassin2 seats7%to flip12%to flip LD-3Erin Ronayne RudnerSpencer Sommers2 seats7%to flip3%to flip LD-1Courtney Gale EnfieldNick Fosness2 seats6%to flip10%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Two representatives per district

Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

37 races, 10 without a contest between the major parties.

37 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
LD-12 seats	● Courtney Gale Enfield● Nick FosnessINCAlso: Daniel Kjos (R)	6%94% 10%90%	R+11.7R+12.9	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
LD-22 seats	● Blake Rife● Adam LongAlso: Manuel Luschas (R)	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.6R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
LD-32 seats	● Erin Ronayne Rudner● Spencer SommersAlso: Timothy Hanigan (R)	7%93% 3%97%	R+11.4R+18.8	Likely RSolid R	R+27	—
LD-42 seats	● Emelia Enquist● Ryan KohlAlso: Fred Deutsch (R), Samuel Froehlke (I)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.0R+47.0	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
LD-5R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Matt RobyINCAlso: Neal Tapio (I), Byron I. Callies (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+41	—
LD-62 seats	● Austin Wolf● Jerry JongelingAlso: Elliott Neff (R), Garret M Campbell (D)	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.3R+25.8	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
LD-72 seats	● Blake Stevens● Mellissa HeermannINCAlso: Roger DeGroot (R)	35%65% 39%61%	R+2.7R+2.5	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
LD-8R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Todd WilkinsonAlso: Jon Nelson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+35	—
LD-92 seats	● Amanda Potter● Tesa SchwansINCAlso: Megan Tschetter (R)	5%95% 7%93%	R+12.6R+14.9	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
LD-102 seats	● Adam Bair● John PohlmanAlso: Kimberly Petterson (R), Kathleen Brudvig (D)	99%1% 95%5%	D+18.6D+16.7	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
LD-112 seats	● Sonja Mentzer● Keri WeemsINCAlso: Brian Mulder (R), Tracey Quint (L)	31%69% 35%65%	R+3.5R+3.7	Lean RLean R	R+12	—
LD-12Flip riskFlip risk2 seats	● Stephanie Arne● Amber ArlintINCAlso: Kerry Loudenslager (R)	45%55% 56%44%	R+0.9D+1.4	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
LD-132 seats	● Ali Rae Horsted● Jack KolbeckINCAlso: John Hughes (R)	21%79% 28%72%	R+5.9R+5.6	Lean RLean R	R+12	—
LD-14Flip riskD flip2 seats	● Erinn Williams● Taylor RehfeldtINCAlso: Tyler Tordsen (R)	57%43% 67%33%	D+1.3D+4.2	Toss-upLean D	R+3	—
LD-152 seats	● Kadyn WittmanINC● Andre ZachariahsAlso: June CopperStad (D), Joni Tschetter (R)	98%2% 85%15%	D+15.7D+10.3	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
LD-162 seats	● Tim Rhead● John ShubeckINCAlso: Lisa Bogue (R)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.2R+38.8	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
LD-172 seats	● Austin Brunick● Chris KassinINCAlso: Troy Redler (R), Leslie Gerrish (D)	7%93% 12%88%	R+11.1R+11.4	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
LD-182 seats	● Karen Springer● Mike StevensINCAlso: John R. Marquardt (R), Jarod Holcomb (D)	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.4R+19.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
LD-192 seats	● Heidi Hora● Jessica BahmullerINCAlso: Drew Peterson (R)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.8R+49.7	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
LD-20R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Jeff BathkeINCAlso: Terry Sabers (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+44	—
LD-21R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Marty OverwegINCAlso: Jim Halverson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+53	—
LD-222 seats	● Cully Williams● Lana GreenfieldINCAlso: Kevin Van Diepen (R)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.5R+33.4	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
LD-23R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Spencer GoschINCAlso: Dick Werner (R), Garett Heinz (I)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+61	—
LD-24R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Mike WeisgramINCAlso: Laurie Gill (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+40	—
LD-25R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Nick BuchholzAlso: Carrie Sanderson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+36	—
LD-26A	● Eric E. EmeryINC● Ron Frederick	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.6D+30.8	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
LD-26B	● Lewis J. GrassRope● Angi Hanzlik	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.6R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
LD-272 seats	● No Democrat● Liz Marty MayINCAlso: Evangeline Poor Bear (I), Elizabeth Lone Eagle (I), Joe Flood (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+4	—
LD-28AFlip riskFlip risk	● Chastity "Chas" Jewett● Jana HuntINC	42%58% 53%47%	R+1.5D+0.7	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
LD-28B	● No Democrat● Travis IsmayINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
LD-29R vs R2 seats	● No Democrat● Gary DeeringAlso: Gary Cammack (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+53	—
LD-302 seats	● Bret Swanson● Tim GoodwinINCAlso: Trish Ladner (R)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.3R+41.4	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
LD-312 seats	● Morgan Plucker● Scott OdenbachINCAlso: Mary J. Fitzgerald (R)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.4R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
LD-32R flip2 seats	● Nicole Uhre-BalkINC● Steve DuffyAlso: Samuel Hare Sr (I), Zachary Martin (R)	71%29% 38%62%	D+4.0R+2.9	Lean DLean R	R+9	—
LD-332 seats	● Kari Hall● Phil JensenINCAlso: Curt Massie (R)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
LD-342 seats	● Victor Diego Dominquez● Mike DerbyINCAlso: Becky Drury (R)	2%98% 6%94%	R+17.9R+15.2	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
LD-352 seats	● Ken Jeakins● Dale BartscherAlso: Jason Fleming (R)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.5R+27.3	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.