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What's the difference?

Delaware · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Delaware State Senate?

11 of 21 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 11 seats make a majority. 13 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Delaware State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
15.080% range 15–15
Avg. R seats
6.080% range 6–6
Now
15 D · 6 R11 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (15 of 21 seats; 13 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

15 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party6 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Delaware State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
15.180% range 15–16
Avg. R seats
5.980% range 5–6
Now
15 D · 6 R11 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (15 of 21 seats; 13 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

15 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party6 R now

11 for control
11 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 11 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D8

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R3

Solid D8

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

Solid R2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Delaware

Wilmington

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

No race is closer than Likely (80%).

Most likely to flip

SD-20Harry S. GoldGerald W. Hocker4%to flip13%to flip SD-14Kyra HoffnerMark Pugh1%to flip4%to flip SD-15Nisha LodhaviaElizabeth Thompson1%to flip2%to flip SD-7Spiros MantzavinosChris Rowe<1%to flip1%to flip SD-12Nicole PooreMark Esposito<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-5Shay FrisbyBrent Burdge<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-8Mara GormanShane Cavanaugh<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-1Dan CruceHildi Bachtle<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

11 of 21 seats on the ballot; 10 holdovers (7 D, 3 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

11 for D control →D three-fifths →101112131415161718
11 for D control →D three-fifths →101112131415161718

Every race

11 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.

11 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-1
● Dan CruceINC● Hildi BachtleAlso: Steven Washington (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.7D+53.8Solid DSolid DD+48—
SD-5
● Shay FrisbyINC● Brent BurdgeAlso: Carolyn Frank (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.6D+39.6Solid DSolid DD+33—
SD-7
● Spiros MantzavinosINC● Chris Rowe
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.5D+26.9Solid DSolid DD+20—
SD-8
● Mara Gorman● Shane Cavanaugh
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.2D+35.3Solid DSolid DD+29—
SD-9
● Jack WalshINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+26—
SD-12
● Nicole PooreINC● Mark Esposito
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.9D+33.6Solid DSolid DD+27—
SD-13
● Marie PinkneyINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+49—
SD-14
● Kyra HoffnerINC● Mark Pugh
99%1%
96%4%
D+18.9D+17.9Solid DSolid DD+12—
SD-15
● Nisha Lodhavia● Elizabeth Thompson
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.2R+22.8Solid RSolid RR+28—
SD-19
● No Democrat● Brian G. PettyjohnINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+12—
SD-20
● Harry S. Gold● Gerald W. HockerINC
4%96%
13%87%
R+15.2R+11.2Solid RLikely RR+16—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).