Delaware · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Delaware House of Representatives?

All 41 seats are on the ballot. 21 seats make a majority. 25 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Delaware House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 30.480% range 29–32
Avg. R seats: 10.680% range 9–12
Now: 27 D · 14 R41 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (27 of 41 seats; 25 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

27 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party14 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Delaware House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 30.780% range 29–32
Avg. R seats: 10.380% range 9–12
Now: 27 D · 14 R41 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (27 of 41 seats; 25 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

27 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party14 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 41 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.

Solid D28

Show 22 more

Likely D1

HD-22flip

Lean D1

HD-34flip

Toss-up1

HD-4risk

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R7

Solid D28

Show 22 more

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R1

HD-33

Solid R7

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Delaware

Wilmington

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-4Gregg LindnerDan ZitofskyFlip risk52%Rep.60%Rep. HD-34Annie NormanLyndon D. YearickD flipD flip69%Dem.86%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-9Ayanna Khan-FlowersJamar MoneyD flipD flip99%to flip98%to flip HD-22Alex GreenMike SmithD flipD flip93%to flip98%to flip HD-34Annie NormanLyndon D. YearickD flipD flip69%to flip86%to flip HD-4Gregg LindnerDan ZitofskyFlip risk48%to flip40%to flip HD-38Maureen MaddenCarlie Carey14%to flip21%to flip HD-36Andrew "Andy" GorlichBryan William Shupe9%to flip23%to flip HD-33Joshua PenningtonMorgan Hudson6%to flip17%to flip HD-20Alonna BerryGene Dvornick2%to flip11%to flip HD-11Tori ParkerJeffrey N. Spiegelman1%to flip5%to flip HD-41Ryan StuckeyJohn Atkins1%to flip2%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

41 races, 18 without a contest between the major parties.

41 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Nnamdi O. ChukwuochaINC● Lisa McInnis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+74.1D+83.3	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
HD-2	● Michelle H. Booker● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+74	—
HD-3	● Branden Fletcher-Dominguez● Shawn L. DotteryAlso: Dexter "Dizzy" Bland (I)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+64.8D+72.1	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
HD-4Flip risk	● Gregg Lindner● Dan Zitofsky	48%52% 40%60%	R+0.4R+2.4	Toss-upLean R	R+7	—
HD-5	● Kendra JohnsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+60	—
HD-6	● Rachel "Rae" Krantz● Tanya Hettler	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.6D+42.3	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
HD-7	● Larry LambertINC● Shane Stoneman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.5D+45.3	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
HD-8	● Sherae'a "Rae" MooreINC● Gary Taylor	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+29.5D+31.3	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-9D flipD flip	● Ayanna Khan-Flowers● Jamar Money	99%1% 98%2%	D+18.3D+21.5	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-10	● Melanie Ross LevinINC● Dolores Dunleavy	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.9D+32.6	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-11	● Tori Parker● Jeffrey N. SpiegelmanINC	1%99% 5%95%	R+21.5R+17.0	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
HD-12	● Krista GriffithINC● Steve Pickering	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.8D+34.9	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-13	● DeShanna U. NealINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+28	—
HD-14	● Claire Snyder-HallINC● Mike Simpler	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.2D+25.8	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-15	● Kamela T. SmithINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
HD-16	● Pamela Salaam● Enala A. Mwashitete	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.4D+62.1	Solid DSolid D	D+57	—
HD-17	● Melissa Minor BrownINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+38	—
HD-18	● Sophie PhillipsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
HD-19	● Kim WilliamsINC● Janyce Colmery	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.5D+25.1	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-20	● Alonna BerryINC● Gene Dvornick	98%2% 89%11%	D+17.0D+11.8	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-21	● Frank BurnsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+20	—
HD-22D flipD flip	● Alex Green● Mike SmithINC	93%7% 98%2%	D+13.1D+23.5	Likely DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-23	● Dave Redlawsk● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
HD-24	● Ed OsienskiINC● Stephen P. Ondich	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.5D+35.5	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-25	● Cyndie RomerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-26	● Madinah Wilson-AntonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
HD-27	● Eric MorrisonINC● Mary "Penny" Kubin	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+25.6D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-28	● Tyeisha "Tye" Grier● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-29	● William Bush● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-30	● No Democrat● Wm Shannon MorrisINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-31	● Sean M. LynnINC● Anton Brogden	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.0D+45.3	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
HD-32	● Kerri Evelyn HarrisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
HD-33	● Joshua Pennington● Morgan Hudson	6%94% 17%83%	R+12.1R+9.2	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-34D flipD flip	● Annie Norman● Lyndon D. YearickINC	69%31% 86%14%	D+3.8D+10.2	Lean DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-35	● No Democrat● Jesse R. VanderwendeINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+30	—
HD-36	● Andrew "Andy" Gorlich● Bryan William ShupeINC	9%91% 23%77%	R+10.2R+6.9	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-37	● No Democrat● Valerie Jones GiltnerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+14	—
HD-38	● Maureen Madden● Carlie Carey	14%86% 21%79%	R+8.2R+8.1	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-39	● No Democrat● Daniel B. ShortINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+23	—
HD-40	● No Democrat● Timothy Dale DukesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+43	—
HD-41	● Ryan Stuckey● John Atkins	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.3R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).