Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona · 2026 forecast · Southwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona in 2026
Arizona elects a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, all 9 members of the U.S. House, all 30 members of the State Senate and all 60 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 3 statewide offices · 9 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- Governor
- D 95%D 92%Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs
- U.S. House
- 4.7 D · 4.3 R4.9 D · 4.1 RExpected seats of 9
- Arizona State Senate
- R 51%D 69%Chance of control · 30 of 30 seats up
- Arizona House of Representatives
- D 70%D 73%Chance of control · 60 of 60 seats up
- Attorney General
- D 94%D 88%Kris Mayes vs. Warren Petersen
- Secretary of State
- D 95%D 89%Adrian Fontes vs. Alexander Kolodin
- Treasurer
- D 79%D 81%Nick Mansour vs. Elijah Norton
U.S. House districts · Arizona
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 40%
- Divided
- 59%
- Rep. trifecta
- 2%
Divided government most likely continues (59%); 41% chance one party wins a trifecta.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 53%
- Divided
- 45%
- Rep. trifecta
- 2%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (53%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
● Kris MayesINC● Warren Petersen
Secretary of State
● Adrian FontesINC● Alexander Kolodin
TreasurerD flipD flip
● Nick Mansour● Elijah Norton
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it.
The Arizona environment
The environment Arizona's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Arizona state offices vs. the nation
- +0.3± 3.7 (80% range) · 4 polled state races
- Arizona state-office environment
- D+9.80.3 pts more Democratic than the nation
The polled state races behind it
A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Arizona environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
9 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.
Phoenix
9 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-1D flipD flip | ● Amish Shah● Jay Feely | D+4.5D+4.5 | R+2 | 1 | ||
| AZ-2 | ● Jonathan Nez● Eli CraneINC | R+5.5R+5.0 | R+14 | 3 | ||
| AZ-3 | ● Yassamin AnsariINC● No RepublicanAlso: Alan Aversa (NL), David Redkey (G) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+43 | — | |
| AZ-4 | ● Greg StantonINC● Zuhdi Jasser | D+17.5D+16.8 | D+8 | — | ||
| AZ-5 | ● Elizabeth Lee● Mark Lamb | R+12.2R+11.0 | R+19 | — | ||
| AZ-6D flipD flip | ● JoAnna Mendoza● Juan CiscomaniINC | D+1.9D+3.4 | R+1 | 3 | ||
| AZ-7 | ● Adelita GrijalvaINC● Daniel Butierez | D+34.2D+32.7 | D+25 | — | ||
| AZ-8 | ● Bernadette Greene-Placentia● Abraham HamadehINC | R+8.0R+7.0 | R+16 | — | ||
| AZ-9 | ● Dani Sterbinsky● Paul GosarINC | R+22.2R+22.0 | R+30 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Arizona Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Arizona State SenateProjected flip
Dem.
49%
Rep.
51%
Avg. 16 D – 15 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 1%
Dem.
69%
Rep.
31%
Avg. 17 D – 14 R seats · 16 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 8%
Arizona State Senate ratings
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Arizona House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flip
Dem.
70%
Rep.
30%
Avg. 33 D – 28 R seats · 31 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 3%
Dem.
73%
Rep.
27%
Avg. 33 D – 27 R seats · 31 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 6%
Arizona House of Representatives ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
LD-2Amelia GallitanoShawnna BolickFlip riskFlip risk50%Rep.60%Dem. LD-4Karen GreshamMatt GressFlip riskD flip2 seats53%Rep.63%Dem. LD-4Aaron LiebermanCarine WernerD flipD flip60%Dem.63%Dem. LD-17Edgar SotoChris KingFlip risk62%Rep.56%Dem. LD-13Racquel ArmstrongJanet WeningerD flipD flip2 seats64%Dem.76%Dem. LD-16Julia GusseChris LopezFlip risk2 seats69%Rep.56%Rep.
LD-17Kevin VolkRachel KeshelFlip risk2 seats70%Dem.57%Dem. LD-13Kristie O'BrienJulie WilloughbyD flipD flip71%Dem.76%Dem. LD-27Deborah HowardLisa Fink2 seats74%Rep.65%Rep. LD-2Stephanie SimacekJustin WilmethFlip risk2 seats80%Dem.60%Dem. LD-14Stephanie WalshMylie Biggs89%Rep.88%Rep. LD-27Kyle ClaytonKevin Payne90%Rep.64%Rep.
How Arizona votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.