Rhode Island · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Rhode Island House of Representatives?
All 75 seats are on the ballot. 38 seats make a majority. 45 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the Rhode Island House of Representatives (>99%).
- Avg. D seats
- 66.580% range 65–68
- Avg. R seats
- 8.580% range 7–10
- Now
- 63 D · 10 R · 1 other · 1 vacant75 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (63 of 75 seats; 45 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
63 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party10 R now
Democrats are very likely to control the Rhode Island House of Representatives (>99%).
- Avg. D seats
- 66.380% range 64–68
- Avg. R seats
- 8.780% range 7–11
- Now
- 63 D · 10 R · 1 other · 1 vacant75 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (63 of 75 seats; 45 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
63 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party10 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 75 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D62
Lean D0
Toss-up1
Lean R1
Likely R1
Solid D62
Lean R1
Likely R0
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Rhode Island
Providence
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
75 races, 60 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1D vs D | ● Edith H. AjelloINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+60 | — | |
| HD-2 | ● Christopher BlazejewskiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+59 | — | |
| HD-3 | ● Nathan BiahINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+56 | — | |
| HD-4 | ● Rebecca KislakINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+59 | — | |
| HD-5 | ● Anthony DeSimoneINC● No RepublicanAlso: Brittany Kubicek (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+53 | — | |
| HD-6 | ● Raymond A. HullINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+41 | — | |
| HD-7 | ● Amy J. Santiago● Christopher Ireland | D+55.9D+60.9 | D+53 | — | ||
| HD-8 | ● John J. LombardiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+57 | — | |
| HD-9 | ● Enrique SanchezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+57 | — | |
| HD-10 | ● Scott A. SlaterINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+54 | — | |
| HD-11 | ● Grace DiazINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+56 | — | |
| HD-12D vs D | ● Arlette Hidalgo● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+56 | — | |
| HD-13 | ● Ramon PerezINC● Derick Reels | D+49.2D+49.6 | D+41 | — | ||
| HD-14D vs D | ● Charlene LimaINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+14 | — | |
| HD-15D flipD flip | ● Colleen Crudele● Christopher PaplauskasINCAlso: Allan Fung (I) | D+7.8D+14.4 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-16 | ● Brandon PotterINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+11 | — | |
| HD-17 | ● Jacquelyn BaginskiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+6 | — | |
| HD-18 | ● Arthur HandyINC● Jessica Gomes | D+32.8D+27.5 | D+15 | — | ||
| HD-19 | ● Joseph McNamaraINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| HD-20 | ● David A. BennettINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+9 | — | |
| HD-21 | ● No Democrat● Marie A. HopkinsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+9 | — | |
| HD-22 | ● Zakary J. Pereira● Barbara Quigley | D+16.2D+16.6 | D+7 | — | ||
| HD-23 | ● William Muto● Dana James Traversie | D+20.6D+17.3 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-24 | ● Evan Patrick ShanleyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+11 | — | |
| HD-25 | ● Thomas E. NoretINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+2 | — | |
| HD-26 | ● Earl A. Read, IIIINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+1 | — | |
| HD-27 | ● Angela S. Coburn● Lawrence P. Almagno, Jr. | D+9.9D+8.1 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-28 | ● No Democrat● George A. NardoneINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+12 | — | |
| HD-29 | ● No Democrat● Sherry L. RobertsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+16 | — | |
| HD-30 | ● Justine CaldwellINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+17 | — | |
| HD-31 | ● James C. Sheehan● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — | |
| HD-32 | ● Robert E. Craven, Jr.INC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+22 | — | |
| HD-33 | ● Carol Hagan McEnteeINC● Jessica Drew Day | D+30.5D+32.2 | D+26 | — | ||
| HD-34 | ● Teresa A. TanziINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+20 | — | |
| HD-35 | ● Kathleen A. FogartyINC● Jennifer P. Nerbonne | D+39.3D+41.9 | D+34 | — | ||
| HD-36 | ● Tina L. SpearsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+23 | — | |
| HD-37 | ● Samuel Angelo AzzinaroINC● Christopher M. Stanton | D+25.6D+17.6 | D+10 | — | ||
| HD-38 | ● Brian Patrick KennedyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+2 | — | |
| HD-39 | ● Megan L. CotterINC● Jasmin Roy | D+10.3D+2.7 | R+4 | — | ||
| HD-40 | ● No Democrat● Michael ChippendaleINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+16 | — | |
| HD-41Flip risk | ● Shaina N. Smith● Michael J. Riley | R+1.9D+1.3 | R+8 | — | ||
| HD-42 | ● Edward W. Stravato● Richard R. Fascia | R+6.9R+4.7 | R+15 | — | ||
| HD-43 | ● Deborah A. FellelaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | R+17 | — | |
| HD-44 | ● Gregory CostantinoINC● Joseph Hosey | D+8.1D+2.3 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-45 | ● Mia A. AckermanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+7 | — | |
| HD-46 | ● Mary Ann Shallcross SmithINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+6 | — | |
| HD-47 | ● No Democrat● David J. PlaceINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+24 | — | |
| HD-48 | ● No Democrat● Brian C. NewberryINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+9 | — | |
| HD-49 | ● Veronicka Vega● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+3 | — | |
| HD-50 | ● Stephen CaseyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | Even | — | |
| HD-51 | ● Robert D. Phillips● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+1 | — | |
| HD-52 | ● Alex D. MarszalkowskiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| HD-53Flip riskFlip risk | ● Suzanna L. Alba● Paul M. SantucciINC | R+0.3D+2.3 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-54 | ● William W. O'BrienINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+9 | — | |
| HD-55 | ● Arthur J. Corvese● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| HD-56 | ● Joshua J. GiraldoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+35 | — | |
| HD-57 | ● Brandon T. VoasINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+16 | — | |
| HD-58 | ● Cherie L. CruzINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+37 | — | |
| HD-59 | ● Jennifer A. StewartINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+41 | — | |
| HD-60 | ● Karen AlzateINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+36 | — | |
| HD-61 | ● Leonela FelixINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| HD-62 | ● Mary Duffy MessierINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — | |
| HD-63 | ● Katherine Sheena KazarianINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| HD-64 | ● Jenni A. FurtadoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| HD-65 | ● Matthew DawsonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+24 | — | |
| HD-66 | ● Jennifer Smith BoylanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+35 | — | |
| HD-67 | ● Nicole P. Jellinek● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — | |
| HD-68 | ● June S. SpeakmanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+18 | — | |
| HD-69 | ● Susan Ann DonovanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+19 | — | |
| HD-70 | ● John G. EdwardsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+7 | — | |
| HD-71 | ● Michelle E. McGawINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+18 | — | |
| HD-72 | ● Terri-Denise CortvriendINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| HD-73 | ● Marvin AbneyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+42 | — | |
| HD-74 | ● Alex FinkelmanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-75 | ● Lauren H. CarsonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+45 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.