Named multi-member districts
Districts are named after counties and towns ('Chittenden-Central'). Senate districts elect one to three senators and House districts one or two members; voters pick as many as there are seats.
Vermont · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Vermont State Senate?
All 30 seats are on the ballot. 16 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties. 20 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the Vermont State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 23.080% range 22–24
- Avg. R seats
- 7.080% range 6–8
- Now
- 17 D · 13 R30 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (20+ seats): >99%
17 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party13 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.
Democrats are very likely to control the Vermont State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 22.780% range 22–24
- Avg. R seats
- 7.380% range 6–8
- Now
- 17 D · 13 R30 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (20+ seats): >99%
17 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party13 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 16 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D10
Likely D1
Lean D0
Toss-up1
Lean R0
Likely R0
Solid D11
Likely D0
Lean D0
Toss-up1
Lean R0
Likely R0
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Vermont
Burlington
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
Grand Isle SenatorialKim GleasonPatrick BrennanD flipD flip>99%to flip>99%to flip Orange SenatorialMonique PriestleyJohn BensonD flipD flip98%to flip97%to flip Chittenden North SenatorialIrene WrennerAshley BartleyD flipD flip97%to flip97%to flip Caledonia SenatorialDavid RothScott BeckD flipD flip88%to flip96%to flip Franklin SenatorialAlexander BobellaRandy BrockFlip riskFlip risk2 seats59%to flip44%to flip Bennington SenatorialSeth BongartzLawrence Whitmire2 seats<1%to flip1%to flip Addison SenatorialRuth HardySteven Heffernan2 seats<1%to flip<1%to flip Windsor SenatorialJoe MajorJonathan Gleason3 seats<1%to flip<1%to flip Chittenden Central SenatorialMartine GulickLouie Manno3 seats<1%to flip<1%to flip Chittenden South East SenatorialThomas ChittendenBruce Roy3 seats<1%to flip<1%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Progressive Party
Vermont's Progressive Party holds legislative seats and caucuses with the Democrats, so its candidates are forecast on the Democratic side and its seats count toward that majority.
Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
16 races, 4 without a contest between the major parties.
16 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Senatorial2 seats | ● Ruth HardyINC● Steven HeffernanAlso: Hannah Sessions (D), Andrew Klein (R) | D+32.5D+36.0 | D+39 | — | ||
| Bennington Senatorial2 seats | ● Seth BongartzINC● Lawrence WhitmireAlso: Rob Plunkett (D), Josh Williams (R), Rachel Shaw (PRG) | D+26.5D+24.4 | D+25 | — | ||
| Caledonia SenatorialD flipD flip | ● David Roth● Scott BeckINC | D+9.9D+17.2 | D+17 | — | ||
| Chittenden Central Senatorial3 seats | ● Martine GulickINC● Louie MannoAlso: Nikhil Goyal (D), Tanya Vyhovsky (PRG) | D+68.7D+76.7 | D+73 | — | ||
| Chittenden North SenatorialD flipD flip | ● Irene Wrenner● Ashley Bartley | D+15.4D+19.9 | D+17 | — | ||
| Chittenden South East Senatorial3 seats | ● Thomas ChittendenINC● Bruce RoyAlso: Kesha Ram Hinsdale (D), Javen Sears (R), Rohan St. Marthe (R) | D+55.3D+61.6 | D+60 | — | ||
| Essex Senatorial | ● No Democrat● Russ IngallsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+8 | — | |
| Franklin SenatorialFlip riskFlip risk2 seats | ● Alexander Bobella● Randy BrockINCAlso: Robert Norris (R), A. Gregory Rainville (D) | D+1.6R+1.5 | R+4 | — | ||
| Grand Isle SenatorialD flipD flip | ● Kim Gleason● Patrick BrennanINC | D+25.6D+36.8 | D+36 | — | ||
| Lamoille Senatorial | ● No Democrat● Richard WestmanINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+31 | — | |
| Orange SenatorialD flipD flip | ● Monique Priestley● John BensonINC | D+17.1D+19.6 | D+20 | — | ||
| Orleans Senatorial | ● No Democrat● John MorleyINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | D+5 | — | |
| Rutland SenatorialR vs R3 seats | ● No Democrat● Brian CollamoreINCAlso: Dave Weeks (R), Terry Williams (R), Dave Wolk (I) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | D+3 | — | |
| Washington Senatorial3 seats | ● Ann CummingsINC● Robert LaClairAlso: Andrew Perchlik (D), Anne Watson (D), Christopher Neddo (R) | D+44.5D+47.5 | D+51 | — | ||
| Windham Senatorial2 seats | ● Wendy HarrisonINC● Dale GassettAlso: Nader Hashim (D), Rusty Sage (R) | D+45.9D+43.7 | D+47 | — | ||
| Windsor Senatorial3 seats | ● Joe MajorINC● Jonathan GleasonAlso: Elizabeth Burrows (D), Rebecca White (D), Andrea Murray (R) | D+38.8D+35.7 | D+38 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.