District of Columbia · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
7 of 13 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 7 seats make a majority. 9 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the District of Columbia Council (>99%).
Democratic supermajority now (11 of 13 seats; 9 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
11 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party0 R now
Democrats are very likely to control the District of Columbia Council (>99%).
Democratic supermajority now (11 of 13 seats; 9 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
11 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party0 R now
All 6 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
No race is closer than Likely (80%).
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
From 2026, voters rank up to five candidates in races with three or more candidates. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Four Council members are elected citywide, two at a time. No more than two of them may belong to the same party, so parties nominate one candidate per election and one of the two seats on the ballot usually goes to an independent or minor-party candidate.
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
6 races, 1 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At-largeInd. flipInd. flip2 seats | ● Elissa SilvermanINC● Darrell GreenAlso: Oye Owolewa (D), Darryl Moch (G) | D+82.9D+91.3 | D+87 | — | ||
| Chair | ● Phil MendelsonINC● Abi-Ananiah Prudent | D+82.9D+91.3 | D+87 | — | ||
| Ward 1 | ● Aparna Raj● Jett James JasperAlso: Jude Crannitch (G) | D+86.1D+93.8 | D+90 | — | ||
| Ward 3 | ● Matt FruminINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+83 | — | |
| Ward 5 | ● Zachary ParkerINC● Jeffrey Kihien-PalzaAlso: Joyce Robinson-Paul (G) | D+85.5D+93.9 | D+90 | — | ||
| Ward 6 | ● Charles AllenINC● Jorge Rice | D+81.5D+89.1 | D+85 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.