Pennsylvania · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Pennsylvania State Senate?

25 of 50 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 26 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties, except on final passage of bills (26 votes needed). 34 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are favored to control the Pennsylvania State Senate (60%).

Democrats

40%

chance of control

Republicans

60%

Avg. D seats: 24.180% range 22–26
Avg. R seats: 25.980% range 24–28
Now: 23 D · 27 R25 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (34+ seats): under 1% each.

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, except on final passage of bills (26 votes needed).

It's a toss-up: each party wins about half of the simulations.

Democrats

45%

chance of control

Republicans

55%

Avg. D seats: 24.280% range 22–26
Avg. R seats: 25.880% range 24–28
Now: 23 D · 27 R25 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (34+ seats): under 1% each.

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, except on final passage of bills (26 votes needed).

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 25 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D12

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-24flip

Toss-up1

SD-6risk

Lean R3

Likely R0

Solid R8

Solid D9

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R7

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-6Eileen T. Hartnett AlbillarFrank FarryFlip riskD flip52%Rep.61%Dem. SD-40Brian A. WrightsonRosemary BrownFlip risk63%Rep.57%Dem. SD-24Chris ThomasTracy PennycuickD flipD flip67%Dem.74%Dem. SD-16Mark PinsleyJarrett ColemanFlip risk67%Rep.58%Rep. SD-36James MaloneTom JonesR flipR flip68%Rep.82%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-36James MaloneTom JonesR flipR flip68%to flip82%to flip SD-24Chris ThomasTracy PennycuickD flipD flip67%to flip74%to flip SD-6Eileen T. Hartnett AlbillarFrank FarryFlip riskD flip48%to flip61%to flip SD-40Brian A. WrightsonRosemary BrownFlip risk37%to flip57%to flip SD-16Mark PinsleyJarrett ColemanFlip risk33%to flip42%to flip SD-14Nick MillerOmy Juriel Maldonado2%to flip14%to flip SD-34Nathan WoodGreg Rothman2%to flip5%to flip SD-18Lisa BoscolaScott Janney1%to flip8%to flip SD-20Jackie BakerLisa Baker1%to flip2%to flip SD-22Marty FlynnSharon Soltis1%to flip8%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.

25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (10 D, 15 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

25 races, 6 without a contest between the major parties.

25 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-2	● Christine TartaglioneINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+42	—
SD-4	● Art HaywoodINC● Todd Johnson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.6D+73.3	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
SD-6Flip riskD flip	● Eileen T. Hartnett Albillar● Frank FarryINC	48%52% 61%39%	R+0.4D+2.6	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
SD-8	● Anthony H. WilliamsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
SD-10	● Steve SantarsieroINC● Gregory J. Bankos Jr.	99%1% 96%4%	D+21.6D+17.7	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
SD-12	● Maria CollettINC● Robert F. Costello III	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+23.5D+23.6	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
SD-14	● Nick MillerINC● Omy Juriel Maldonado	98%2% 86%14%	D+18.0D+10.2	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
SD-16Flip risk	● Mark Pinsley● Jarrett ColemanINC	33%67% 42%58%	R+3.1R+1.9	Lean RToss-up	R+9	—
SD-18	● Lisa BoscolaINC● Scott Janney	99%1% 92%8%	D+19.8D+13.6	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
SD-20	● Jackie Baker● Lisa BakerINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.4R+20.5	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-22	● Marty FlynnINC● Sharon Soltis	99%1% 92%8%	D+22.5D+13.8	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
SD-24D flipD flip	● Chris Thomas● Tracy PennycuickINC	67%33% 74%26%	D+3.1D+5.9	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
SD-26	● Tim KearneyINC● Alfeia Devaughn-Goodwin	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.4D+28.2	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
SD-28	● Thomas Johnson● Kristin Phillips-HillINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+23.9R+22.9	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
SD-30	● Sean Steeg● Judy WardINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.6R+44.6	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
SD-32	● No Democrat● Patrick StefanoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+50	—
SD-34	● Nathan Wood● Greg RothmanINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+17.3R+16.0	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
SD-36R flipR flip	● James MaloneINC● Tom Jones	32%68% 18%82%	R+3.3R+8.6	Lean RLikely R	R+16	—
SD-38	● Lindsey WilliamsINC● Thomas West	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.7D+17.2	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
SD-40Flip risk	● Brian A. Wrightson● Rosemary BrownINC	37%63% 57%43%	R+2.4D+1.5	Lean RToss-up	R+5	—
SD-42	● Wayne D. FontanaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+34	—
SD-44	● Katie MuthINC● Melissa C. Dicranian	99%1% 96%4%	D+20.4D+17.3	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
SD-46	● Evan James Snyder● Camera BartolottaINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+24.0R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
SD-48	● No Democrat● Chris GebhardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
SD-50	● No Democrat● Michele BrooksINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).