Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 legislative districts elects two House members, who run for separate seats (A and B). The forecast treats each seat as its own race.
Idaho · 2026 forecast · Mountain West region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho in 2026
Idaho elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 2 members of the U.S. House, all 35 members of the State Senate and all 70 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 5 statewide offices · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- R 99%R 99%Todd Achilles vs. Jim Risch
- Governor
- R 99%R 99%Terri Pickens vs. Brad Little + 1 more
- U.S. House
- 0.0 D · 2.0 R0.0 D · 2.0 RExpected seats of 2
- Idaho State Senate
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 35 of 35 seats up
- Idaho House of Representatives
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 70 of 70 seats up
- Lieutenant Governor
- R >99%R 99%Eric Myricks vs. Scott Bedke
- Attorney General
- R >99%R >99%Lori Hickman vs. Raúl Labrador
- Secretary of State
- R >99%R 99%Shawn Keenan vs. Phil McGrane
- Treasurer
- R >99%R 99%Kevin Jones vs. Julie Ellsworth
- Auditor
- R >99%R 99%Rakesh Mohan vs. Brandon Woolf
U.S. House districts · Idaho
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 1%
- Rep. trifecta
- 99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 1%
- Rep. trifecta
- 99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
U.S. Senate
● Todd Achilles● Jim RischINC
Governor
● Terri Pickens● Brad LittleINCAlso: John Stegner (I)
Statewide offices
Lieutenant Governor
● Eric Myricks● Scott BedkeINC
Attorney General
● Lori Hickman● Raúl LabradorINC
Secretary of State
● Shawn Keenan● Phil McGraneINC
Treasurer
● Kevin Jones● Julie EllsworthINC
Auditor
● Rakesh Mohan● Brandon WoolfINC
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The Idaho environment
The environment Idaho's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Idaho state offices vs. the nation
- −0.4± 4.2 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
- Idaho state-office environment
- D+9.10.4 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Idaho environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Boise
2 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID-1 | ● Kaylee Peterson● Russ FulcherINCAlso: Sarah Zabel (I) | R+31.2R+32.6 | R+44 | 4 | ||
| ID-2 | ● Ellie Gilbreath● Mike SimpsonINC | R+21.0R+20.6 | R+27 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Idaho Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Idaho State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 7 D – 29 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 5 D – 30 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Idaho State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Idaho House of Representatives
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 11 D – 59 R seats · 36 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 11 D – 59 R seats · 36 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Idaho House of Representatives ratings
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
LD-26Anita JanisMike PohankaFlip riskFlip risk2 seats60%Rep.54%Rep. LD-15Nancy GregoryDesi BurbankD flipFlip risk71%Dem.53%Rep. LD-29Mary SheaDustin W. Manwaring2 seats75%Rep.78%Rep. LD-29James D. RuchtiJohn CrowderR flip78%Dem.77%Rep. LD-15Steve BerchDori HealeyFlip risk2 seats80%Dem.53%Rep. LD-26Ron TaylorBryan HydeFlip risk83%Dem.54%Rep.
How Idaho votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.