Maryland · 2026 forecast · Mid-Atlantic region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Maryland in 2026

Maryland elects a governor, an attorney general, an auditor, all 8 members of the U.S. House, all 47 members of the State Senate and all 141 members of the House of Delegates on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 2 statewide offices · 8 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

Governor: D >99%D >99%Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox
U.S. House: 7.0 D · 1.0 R7.0 D · 1.0 RExpected seats of 8
Maryland State Senate: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 47 of 47 seats up
Maryland House of Delegates: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 141 of 141 seats up
Attorney General: D >99%D >99%Anthony Brown vs. James Rutledge III
Auditor: D >99%D >99%Brooke Lierman vs. Sonya Dunn

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Maryland

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Democratic trifecta now

Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

Governor

Solid DSolid D

● Wes MooreINC● Dan Cox

>99%<1%

Statewide offices

Attorney General

Solid DSolid D

● Anthony BrownINC● James Rutledge III

>99%<1%

Auditor

Solid DSolid D

● Brooke LiermanINC● Sonya Dunn

>99%<1%

Ratings

Solid D3

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

The Maryland environment

The environment Maryland's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Maryland state offices vs. the nation: +1.1± 4.2 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
Maryland state-office environment: D+10.71.1 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Maryland environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

8 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D7

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R1

MD-1

Solid D7

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R1

MD-1

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Baltimore

8 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
MD-1	● Dan Schwartz● Andy HarrisINC	3%97% 5%95%	R+12.9R+13.3	Solid RSolid R	R+17	1
MD-2	● Johnny OlszewskiINC● Dave Wallace	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.5D+26.1	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
MD-3	● Sarah ElfrethINC● Berney Flowers	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.1D+30.9	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
MD-4	● Glenn IveyINC● George McDermottAlso: Sam Husseini (G)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+83.3D+85.0	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
MD-5	● Adrian Boafo● Chris Chaffee	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.2D+42.2	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
MD-6	● April McClain DelaneyINC● Robin Ficker	99%1% 96%4%	D+19.9D+15.9	Solid DSolid D	D+8	—
MD-7	● Kweisi MfumeINC● Scott Collier	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.9D+69.0	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
MD-8	● Jamie RaskinINC● Cheryl Riley	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.9D+68.6	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Maryland General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Maryland State Senate

Avg. 35 D – 12 R seats · 24 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 36 D – 11 R seats · 24 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Maryland State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D34

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R9

Solid D33

Likely D1

LD-34

Lean D0

Toss-up1

LD-37risk

Lean R2

Likely R6

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Maryland House of Delegates

Avg. 107 D – 35 R seats · 71 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 108 D – 33 R seats · 71 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Maryland House of Delegates ratings

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.

Solid D46

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R6

Solid R14

Solid D45

Likely D3

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R6

Likely R5

Solid R12

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-42AJyoti MohanChuck Murphy67%Rep.79%Rep. LD-4Lara WestdorpWilliam Folden73%Rep.61%Rep. HD-30BMatt JohnstonSeth A. Howard73%Rep.70%Rep. HD-34BAnthony LyonJake Taylor74%Rep.73%Rep. LD-37Katie ClendanielJohnny MautzFlip risk75%Rep.54%Rep. HD-4Andrew DuckApril Fleming Miller3 seats81%Rep.62%Rep.

HD-7ALy Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn BrownRyan Nawrocki2 seats85%Rep.74%Rep. HD-38AShelley JohnsonC. L. Marshall III86%Rep.89%Rep. LD-42Stephanie PopescuKevin Ford87%Rep.76%Rep. HD-38BJosh HastingsBarry BeauchampD flipD flip88%Dem.90%Dem. HD-33BChuck CookStuart Schmidt Jr.D flipD flip92%Dem.90%Dem. HD-31Joan Barone ColeBrian Chisholm3 seats93%Rep.89%Rep.

How Maryland votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Multi-member delegate districts

Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.