West Virginia · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the West Virginia State Senate?

17 of 34 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 18 seats make a majority. 18 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the West Virginia State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 2.180% range 1–3
Avg. R seats: 31.980% range 31–33
Now: 2 D · 32 R17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (32 of 34 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

2 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party32 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the West Virginia State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 1.780% range 1–3
Avg. R seats: 32.380% range 31–33
Now: 2 D · 32 R17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (32 of 34 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

2 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party32 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 17 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D0

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-13

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R14

Show 8 more

Solid D0

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-13risk

Lean R0

Likely R1

SD-17

Solid R15

Show 9 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-13John WilliamsMike OliverioFlip risk77%Dem.50%Dem.

Most likely to flip

SD-5DuRon JacksonChris MillerR flipR flip85%to flip96%to flip SD-13John WilliamsMike OliverioFlip risk23%to flip50%to flip SD-17Wes HoldenTom Takubo10%to flip7%to flip SD-8Kim HundleyLance V. Wheeler3%to flip5%to flip SD-1Shawn FluhartyLaura Chapman2%to flip5%to flip SD-2Chris ClaypoleToby Heaney<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-10Kent GilkersonVince Deeds<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-12Lynette MurrayBen Queen<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-3Caci PetrehnMike Azinger<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-15Elizabeth FerrisDarren Thorne<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Two senators per district

Each of the 17 Senate districts has two senators serving staggered four-year terms, so one seat per district is on the ballot each election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override most vetoes; budget and spending bills need two-thirds.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

17 races, 1 without a contest between the major parties.

17 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Shawn Fluharty● Laura ChapmanINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+18.3R+21.1	Solid RSolid R	R+40	1
SD-2	● Chris Claypole● Toby Heaney	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.5R+35.2	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
SD-3	● Caci Petrehn● Mike AzingerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.4R+40.7	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
SD-4	● Zachary Abbott● Eric TarrINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.8R+42.5	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
SD-5R flipR flip	● DuRon Jackson● Chris Miller	15%85% 4%96%	R+7.5R+16.9	Likely RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-6	● Wyatt Lilly● Mark R. MaynardINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.9R+56.8	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
SD-7	● Cindy Brake● Zack MaynardINCAlso: Shawn M. Legg (I)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.4R+49.6	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
SD-8	● Kim Hundley● Lance V. Wheeler	3%97% 5%96%	R+14.2R+15.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	1
SD-9	● Christy Cardwell● Rollan RobertsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.3R+49.5	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
SD-10	● Kent Gilkerson● Vince DeedsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.0R+43.4	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
SD-11	● Kevin Leon Carpenter● Bill HamiltonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.6R+47.9	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
SD-12	● Lynette Murray● Ben QueenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.5R+39.6	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
SD-13Flip risk	● John WilliamsINC● Mike Oliverio	77%23% 50%50%	D+5.2Even	Lean DToss-up	R+6	—
SD-14	● Jason Armentrout● Jay TaylorINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.5R+53.6	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
SD-15	● Elizabeth Ferris● Darren ThorneINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.9R+40.1	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
SD-16	● No Democrat● Jason BarrettINCAlso: Travis Bost (L)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+23	—
SD-17	● Wes Holden● Tom TakuboINC	10%90% 7%93%	R+9.4R+14.4	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).