Legislature elected in odd years
The House of Delegates is elected in odd-numbered years and the Senate every four years in the year before a presidential election; both are next on the ballot in 2027.
Virginia · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia in 2026
Virginia elects a U.S. senator and all 11 members of the U.S. House on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2027. The House of Delegates is next elected in 2027.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 11 U.S. House seats.
U.S. House districts · Virginia
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Virginia environment
The environment Virginia's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Virginia state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- Virginia state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in Virginia is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Virginia environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
11 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Northern Virginia
11 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-1Flip riskD flip | ● Shannon Taylor● Rob WittmanINC | D+0.5D+1.9 | R+5 | 3 | ||
| VA-2D flipD flip | ● Elaine Luria● Jen KiggansINC | D+4.5D+5.9 | Even | 2 | ||
| VA-3 | ● Bobby ScottINC● Edwin Rivera | D+44.4D+44.1 | D+36 | — | ||
| VA-4 | ● Jennifer McClellanINC● Robert Murray | D+41.3D+42.1 | D+34 | — | ||
| VA-5 | ● Tom Perriello● John McGuireINC | R+5.6R+5.6 | R+12 | 3 | ||
| VA-6 | ● Beth Macy● Ben ClineINC | R+20.9R+22.3 | R+24 | 1 | ||
| VA-7 | ● Eugene VindmanINC● Doug OllivantAlso: Randall Terry (I) | D+15.4D+11.9 | D+4 | — | ||
| VA-8 | ● Don BeyerINC● Tony Sabio | D+58.9D+60.5 | D+53 | — | ||
| VA-9 | ● Joy Powers● Morgan GriffithINC | R+37.1R+37.9 | R+44 | — | ||
| VA-10 | ● Suhas SubramanyamINC● Dave Beckwith | D+20.8D+19.7 | D+11 | — | ||
| VA-11 | ● James WalkinshawINC● Arthur Purves | D+44.7D+45.7 | D+37 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
How Virginia votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Not on the ballot this year
These chambers hold regular elections in other years.
Virginia State Senate
Next regular election: 2027 · 40 seats
21 D · 19 R
Virginia House of Delegates
Next regular election: 2027 · 100 seats
63 D · 36 R