Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
17 of 35 seats on the ballot; 18 holdovers (2 D, 16 R) serve until a later election.
Arkansas · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Arkansas State Senate?
17 of 35 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 18 seats make a majority. 18 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Arkansas State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 7.080% range 6–8
- Avg. R seats
- 28.080% range 27–29
- Now
- 6 D · 27 R · 2 vacant17 up this year
Republican supermajority now (27 of 35 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the Arkansas State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 6.780% range 6–7
- Avg. R seats
- 28.380% range 28–29
- Now
- 6 D · 27 R · 2 vacant17 up this year
Republican supermajority now (27 of 35 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
6 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 17 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Arkansas
Little Rock
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
No race is closer than Likely (80%).
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
17 races, 13 without a contest between the major parties.
17 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-2 | ● No Democrat● Matt StoneINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+35 | — | |
| SD-7 | ● No Democrat● Alan ClarkINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+53 | — | |
| SD-9 | ● Jessie McGruder● Kenny Phillips | D+22.3D+15.7 | D+10 | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● No Democrat● Ron CaldwellINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+43 | — | |
| SD-11 | ● No Democrat● Ricky HillINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+49 | — | |
| SD-13D flipD flip | ● Allison Sweatman● Brandon Achor | D+6.7D+4.7 | R+2 | — | ||
| SD-14 | ● Clarke TuckerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| SD-15 | ● Tara Shephard● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+64 | — | |
| SD-16 | ● Joshua Irby● Rodney Wright | R+21.6R+25.0 | R+31 | — | ||
| SD-21 | ● No Democrat● Jeremy Wooldridge | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+62 | — | |
| SD-24 | ● No Democrat● Missy IrvinINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+63 | — | |
| SD-27 | ● Eduardo Guzman● Justin BoydINC | R+6.8R+13.0 | R+20 | — | ||
| SD-28 | ● No Democrat● Bryan KingINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+53 | — | |
| SD-30 | ● Denise Garner● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| SD-31 | ● No Democrat● Clint PenzoINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+17 | — | |
| SD-32 | ● No Democrat● Joshua P. BryantINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+29 | — | |
| SD-35 | ● No Democrat● Tyler DeesINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+38 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).