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What's the difference?

Oklahoma · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Oklahoma State Senate?

24 of 48 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 25 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties. 32 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Oklahoma State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
8.580% range 8–10
Avg. R seats
39.580% range 38–40
Now
8 D · 39 R · 1 vacant24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (39 of 48 seats; 32 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

8 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party39 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.

Republicans are very likely to control the Oklahoma State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
8.280% range 8–9
Avg. R seats
39.880% range 39–40
Now
8 D · 39 R · 1 vacant24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (39 of 48 seats; 32 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

8 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party39 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.

25 for control
25 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R1

Likely R2

Solid R15

Show 9 more

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R15

Show 9 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma City

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-34Amy HossainAaron Forst68%Rep.95%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-34Amy HossainAaron Forst32%to flip5%to flip SD-32Booker T. NewtonCurtis Erwin10%to flip6%to flip SD-42Chris JonesBrenda Stanley7%to flip5%to flip SD-22Kenny KemperKristen Thompson2%to flip2%to flip SD-36Rick LarsenJohn Haste1%to flip1%to flip SD-18Meredith McGinnisTyler Herring1%to flip<1%to flip SD-8Nathan BrewerBryan Logan<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-2Randy CowlingAlly Seifried<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-10Chayelynn MooreBill Coleman<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-12Erica WatkinsTodd Gollihare<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.

24 of 48 seats on the ballot; 24 holdovers (2 D, 22 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

25 for D control →← R two-thirds10152025
25 for D control →← R two-thirds10152025

Every race

24 races, 10 without a contest between the major parties.

24 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-2
● Randy Cowling● Ally SeifriedINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.1R+48.0Solid RSolid RR+53—
SD-4
● Ellen Cuff● Tom WoodsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.2R+55.9Solid RSolid RR+60—
SD-6
● Patrick Southerland● David BullardINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+46.7R+59.0Solid RSolid RR+63—
SD-8
● Nathan Brewer● Bryan LoganINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.4R+44.0Solid RSolid RR+48—
SD-10
● Chayelynn Moore● Bill ColemanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.4R+51.4Solid RSolid RR+55—
SD-12
● Erica Watkins● Todd GollihareINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.0R+48.0Solid RSolid RR+52—
SD-14
● No Democrat● Jerry AlvordINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+59—
SD-16
● Mary B. BorenINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+22—
SD-18
● Meredith McGinnis● Tyler Herring
1%99%
<1%>99%
R+19.8R+30.0Solid RSolid RR+36—
SD-20
● No Democrat● Chuck HallINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+50—
SD-22
● Kenny Kemper● Kristen ThompsonINC
2%98%
2%98%
R+16.7R+22.7Solid RSolid RR+28—
SD-24
● Johnathan Morales● Jon PainterAlso: Melissa Elder (I)
2%98%
1%99%
R+16.8R+24.5Solid RSolid RR+30—
SD-26
● No Democrat● Jessica Winegeart
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+58—
SD-28
● Kevin M. Connor● Grant GreenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.0R+53.0Solid RSolid RR+57—
SD-30
● Julia KirtINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+17—
SD-32
● Booker T. Newton● Curtis ErwinAlso: Valentin Peña (I)
10%90%
6%94%
R+9.9R+15.3Likely RLikely RR+20—
SD-34
● Amy Hossain● Aaron Forst
32%68%
5%95%
R+3.4R+16.6Lean RLikely RR+22—
SD-36
● Rick Larsen● John HasteINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.6R+26.1Solid RSolid RR+31—
SD-38R vs R
● No Democrat● Rick VernonAlso: Joe B. Buchanan (R), Barry Christian (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+66—
SD-40
● Carri HicksINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
SD-42
● Chris Jones● Brenda StanleyINC
7%93%
5%95%
R+11.6R+16.4Likely RLikely RR+21—
SD-44
● Michael Brooks-JimenezINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+10—
SD-46
● Mark MannINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+22—
SD-48
● Nikki NiceINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+58—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.