Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
13 of 25 seats on the ballot; 12 holdovers (10 D, 2 R) serve until a later election.
Hawaii · 2026 forecast · Pacific region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii in 2026
Hawaii elects a governor, all 2 members of the U.S. House, 13 of 25 members of the State Senate and all 51 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · Hawaii
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 99%
- Divided
- 1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 99%
- Divided
- 1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Hawaii environment
The environment Hawaii's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Hawaii state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- Hawaii state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in Hawaii is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Hawaii environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Honolulu
2 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-1 | ● Ed CaseINC● Adriel Lam | D+38.2D+34.2 | D+26 | — | ||
| HI-2 | ● Jill TokudaINC● Brenton Awa | D+33.2D+31.4 | D+24 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Hawaii Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Hawaii State Senate
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 23 D – 3 R seats · 13 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 23 D – 2 R seats · 13 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
13 of 25 seats up; 12 holdovers.
Full forecastHawaii State Senate ratings
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Hawaii House of Representatives
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 46 D – 5 R seats · 26 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 45 D – 6 R seats · 26 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Hawaii House of Representatives ratings
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
6 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
SD-20Markus OwensBob McDermottFlip riskD flip55%Dem.62%Dem. HD-40Rose MartinezJulie Reyes OdaFlip riskFlip risk56%Rep.51%Rep. HD-42Anthony Makana ParisDiamond GarciaFlip riskD flip59%Rep.62%Dem. HD-45Kalehua KaopuaChris MuraokaFlip risk65%Rep.54%Rep. HD-44Darius K. KilaCharla (Kahealani) WeaverR flip78%Dem.62%Rep. HD-47Sean QuinlanMark Talaeai91%Dem.70%Dem.
HD-39Corey RosenleeDaniel DeGraciaD flipD flip91%Dem.86%Dem. HD-30Shirley Ann TemploAmanda Ybanez97%Dem.85%Dem. HD-46Amy A. PerrusoDaniel Michael Gabriel98%Dem.91%Dem. HD-32Micah Pookela Kim AiuGarner M. ShimizuD flipD flip99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-14Sne PatelElle CochranD flipD flip99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-29Ikaika HusseyTess Abalos99%Dem.96%Dem.
How Hawaii votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.