North Carolina · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the North Carolina House of Representatives?

All 120 seats are on the ballot. 61 seats make a majority. 72 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are favored to control the North Carolina House of Representatives (72%).

Democrats

28%

chance of control

Republicans

72%

Avg. D seats: 57.680% range 51–65
Avg. R seats: 62.480% range 55–69
Now: 47 D · 71 R · 2 other120 up this year

Chance Democrats win a three-fifths supermajority (72+ seats): 1%

Chance Republicans win a three-fifths supermajority (72+ seats): 2%

47 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party71 R now

Republicans are favored to control the North Carolina House of Representatives (64%).

Democrats

36%

chance of control

Republicans

64%

Avg. D seats: 58.780% range 52–66
Avg. R seats: 61.380% range 54–68
Now: 47 D · 71 R · 2 other120 up this year

Chance Democrats win a three-fifths supermajority (72+ seats): 2%

Chance Republicans win a three-fifths supermajority (72+ seats): 2%

47 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party71 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 120 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D46

Show 40 more

Likely D4

Lean D3

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R9

Solid R46

Show 40 more

Solid D45

Show 39 more

Likely D2

Lean D6

Toss-up7

Lean R10

Likely R9

Solid R41

Show 35 more

HD-1
HD-13
HD-14
HD-15
HD-16
HD-28
HD-46
HD-51
HD-53
HD-65
HD-67
HD-69
HD-70
HD-77
HD-78
HD-79
HD-80
HD-81
HD-83
HD-84
HD-85
HD-86
HD-87
HD-89
HD-90
HD-91
HD-94
HD-95
HD-96
HD-97
HD-108
HD-110
HD-111
HD-113
HD-120

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

North Carolina

Charlotte

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-62Shelly HeadenJohn BlustFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Dem. HD-74Amy Taylor NorthJeff ZengerFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.52%Rep. HD-37Winn DeckerErin ParéFlip riskD flip53%Dem.63%Dem. HD-5Sam Davis IIIBill WardFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.57%Dem. HD-73Thomas MonksJonathan AlmondFlip riskFlip risk60%Rep.50%Rep. HD-35Evonne HopkinsMike SchietzeltD flipD flip62%Dem.66%Dem. HD-25Lorenza WilkinsAllen ChesserD flipD flip62%Dem.76%Dem. HD-64LeVon BarnesDennis Riddell64%Rep.66%Rep. HD-82Chris BishoppBrian EchevarriaFlip risk65%Rep.56%Rep. HD-20Tim MerrickDane Scalise67%Rep.65%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-105Ken McCoolTricia CothamD flipD flip78%to flip80%to flip HD-25Lorenza WilkinsAllen ChesserD flipD flip62%to flip76%to flip HD-35Evonne HopkinsMike SchietzeltD flipD flip62%to flip66%to flip HD-37Winn DeckerErin ParéFlip riskD flip53%to flip63%to flip HD-62Shelly HeadenJohn BlustFlip riskFlip risk49%to flip54%to flip HD-74Amy Taylor NorthJeff ZengerFlip riskFlip risk48%to flip48%to flip HD-5Sam Davis IIIBill WardFlip riskFlip risk46%to flip57%to flip HD-73Thomas MonksJonathan AlmondFlip riskFlip risk40%to flip50%to flip HD-64LeVon BarnesDennis Riddell36%to flip34%to flip HD-82Chris BishoppBrian EchevarriaFlip risk35%to flip44%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

120 races, 32 without a contest between the major parties.

120 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Claude Harris● Ed GoodwinINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.8R+22.9	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-2	● Ray JeffersINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+10	—
HD-3	● Diannia Bright● Steve TysonINCAlso: Angela Humphries (L)	3%97% 7%93%	R+14.0R+14.5	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-4	● Vernon Moore● Jimmy DixonINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+16.5R+16.8	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
HD-5Flip riskFlip risk	● Sam Davis III● Bill WardINC	46%54% 57%43%	R+0.7D+1.8	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
HD-6	● Tony Spears● Joe PikeINC	3%97% 6%94%	R+14.7R+15.6	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-7	● Mark Speed● Cory Thornton	20%80% 24%76%	R+6.0R+6.5	Lean RLean R	R+12	—
HD-8	● Gloristine BrownINC● Cathy Thorne Bynum	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.4D+32.9	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-9	● Claire Kempner● Timothy ReederINC	17%83% 32%68%	R+6.7R+4.4	Likely RLean R	R+10	—
HD-10	● Zyaire Webb● John BellINC	8%92% 16%84%	R+10.3R+9.4	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-11	● Allison DahleINC● No RepublicanAlso: Matthew Kordon (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+33	—
HD-12	● Don Hardy● Chris HumphreyINC	15%85% 32%68%	R+7.6R+4.5	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-13	● Jason Moore● Celeste CairnsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.5R+35.7	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-14	● No Democrat● Wyatt GableINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+30	—
HD-15	● Christopher Schulte● Phil ShepardINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.9R+27.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-16	● Jim Harris● Carson SmithINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.5R+33.6	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-17	● Dennis Breen● Frank IlerINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.6R+17.7	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-18	● Deb ButlerINC● Latisha Grady	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.6D+29.4	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-19	● Scott Nasif● Charlie MillerINC	2%98% 6%94%	R+15.9R+15.7	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-20	● Tim Merrick● Dane Scalise	33%67% 35%65%	R+3.2R+3.5	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-21	● Ya LiuINC● Bryson Johnson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.7D+33.1	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-22	● Jimmy Melvin● Wellie Jackson	2%98% 3%97%	R+15.6R+19.3	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-23	● Patricia Smith● Brent Roberson	99%1% 96%4%	D+20.2D+19.2	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-24	● Dante PittmanINC● Blake Boykin	92%8% 71%29%	D+11.2D+5.4	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-25D flipD flip	● Lorenza Wilkins● Allen ChesserINCAlso: Nick Taylor (L)	62%38% 76%24%	D+2.3D+6.7	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-26	● L'Bertrice Solomon● Donna McDowell WhiteINC	16%84% 22%78%	R+7.0R+7.3	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-27	● Rodney PierceINC● Kenneth Bentley Jr.	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+34.6D+25.1	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-28	● D. Matthew Bailey● Larry StricklandINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.5R+28.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-29	● Vernetta AlstonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+70	—
HD-30	● Marcia MoreyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ray Ubinger (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+73	—
HD-31	● Zack Forde-HawkinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+62	—
HD-32	● Bryan CohnINC● Frank Sossamon	91%9% 80%20%	D+9.8D+8.1	Likely DLean D	D+2	—
HD-33	● Monika Johnson-HostlerINC● Matthew Orr	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+49.8D+49.5	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
HD-34	● Tim LongestINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ed George (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+32	—
HD-35D flipD flip	● Evonne Hopkins● Mike SchietzeltINC	62%38% 66%34%	D+2.2D+4.0	Lean DLean D	R+3	—
HD-36	● Julie von HaefenINC● Mary Insprucker	99%1% 96%4%	D+22.7D+18.6	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-37Flip riskD flip	● Winn Decker● Erin ParéINC	53%47% 63%37%	D+0.5D+3.0	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
HD-38	● Abe JonesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+64	—
HD-39	● James RobersonINC● Jorge CordovaAlso: Wayne Cockrell (L)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.9D+32.2	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-40	● Phil RubinINC● No RepublicanAlso: Lucas Everett Jones (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+28	—
HD-41	● Maria CervaniaINC● Bruce Forster	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.9D+41.2	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
HD-42	● Mike ColvinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+48	—
HD-43	● Janene Ackles● Diane WheatleyINC	18%82% 26%74%	R+6.6R+6.1	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-44	● Charles SmithINC● Jackie Weyhenmeyer	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.3D+29.1	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-45	● Frances JacksonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-46	● Brittany Newton● Brenden JonesINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.8R+27.8	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-47	● Eshonda Hooper● John LoweryINC	2%98% 7%93%	R+15.4R+15.2	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
HD-48	● Garland PierceINC● Ralph Carter	94%6% 80%20%	D+12.5D+8.2	Likely DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-49	● Cynthia BallINC● Daran Thomas	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.4D+48.5	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-50	● Renee PriceINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-51	● Tasherra Nichols McDuffie● Charles Taylor	1%99% 3%97%	R+21.9R+19.2	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-52	● Joe Parfitt● Ben MossINC	5%95% 11%89%	R+12.5R+11.9	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-53	● Kevin Thurman● Howard Penny Jr.INCAlso: Christopher Sessions (L)	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.6R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-54	● Robert ReivesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+8	—
HD-55	● John Kirkpatrick IV● Clancy Baucom	1%99% 4%97%	R+18.0R+18.5	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-56	● Allen BuansiINC● No RepublicanAlso: Matthew Clements (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+73	—
HD-57	● Tracy ClarkINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
HD-58	● Amos QuickINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-59	● Elma Hairston● Alan BransonINC	27%73% 36%64%	R+4.3R+3.4	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-60	● Amanda CookINC● Joseph Perrotta	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.5D+32.8	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-61	● Pricey HarrisonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+57	—
HD-62Flip riskFlip risk	● Shelly Headen● John BlustINC	49%51% 54%46%	R+0.3D+0.8	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
HD-63Flip risk	● Ian Baltutis● Ryan Moffitt	33%67% 41%59%	R+3.2R+2.1	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-64	● LeVon Barnes● Dennis RiddellINC	36%64% 34%66%	R+2.4R+3.8	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-65	● Gavin McGaughey● Seth Woodall	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.0R+29.8	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-66	● Sarah CrawfordINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+28	—
HD-67	● Jocelyn Torres● Cody HuneycuttINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.4R+42.2	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-68	● Derek Warriner● David WillisINC	3%97% 8%92%	R+14.1R+13.9	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-69	● Heidi Sinsley● Dean ArpINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.2R+19.0	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-70	● William McCaskill● Brian BiggsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.6R+48.8	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-71	● Kanika BrownINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+39	—
HD-72	● Amber BakerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-73Flip riskFlip risk	● Thomas Monks● Jonathan AlmondINC	40%60% 50%50%	R+1.7Even	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-74Flip riskFlip risk	● Amy Taylor North● Jeff ZengerINC	48%52% 48%52%	R+0.4R+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+8	—
HD-75	● Jen Wiles● Donny LambethINC	19%81% 28%72%	R+6.2R+5.3	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-76	● Scott Huffman● Greg Edds	3%97% 4%96%	R+14.6R+17.3	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-77	● Sabrina Harris● Julia Craven HowardINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.0R+48.6	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-78	● Matt Borja● Neal JacksonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.7R+44.7	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-79	● No Democrat● Darren Armstrong	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-80	● JacQuez Johnson● Sam WatfordINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+45.4	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-81	● Dylan Tucker● Larry PottsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.2R+39.5	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-82Flip risk	● Chris Bishopp● Brian EchevarriaINC	35%65% 44%56%	R+2.9R+1.4	Lean RToss-up	R+9	—
HD-83	● Cortez Ferrell● Grant CampbellINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.1R+24.6	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-84	● Chris Gilbert● Jeffrey McNeelyINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.9R+30.1	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-85	● Suzanne Gavenus● Dudley GreeneINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.3R+42.3	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-86	● Wesley Hendrix● Hugh BlackwellINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.4R+35.7	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-87	● Iris Bender● Destin HallINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.8R+44.5	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-88	● Mary BelkINC● Ray Craig	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.3D+47.0	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
HD-89	● Robert Thompson● Mitchell SetzerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.9R+43.8	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-90	● Ken Badgett● Dan KigerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.6R+52.0	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-91	● Lucille Puckett● Kyle HallINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.2R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-92	● Terry BrownINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-93	● Charlie Wallin● Ray PickettINC	10%90% 14%86%	R+9.1R+10.3	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-94	● Andy Warren● Blair EddinsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.3R+52.6	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-95	● Michael Robinson● Todd CarverINC	2%98% 2%98%	R+16.4R+21.0	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-96	● Park Inglefield● Jay AdamsINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.7R+20.2	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-97	● Greg McBryde● Heather RhyneINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.4R+40.4	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-98	● Beth HelfrichINC● John Rhodes	96%4% 84%16%	D+14.4D+9.9	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-99	● Veleria Levy● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+67	—
HD-100	● Julia GreenfieldINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
HD-101	● Carolyn LoganINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+38	—
HD-102	● Becky CarneyINC● Daniel Schmidt	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+54.6D+56.9	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
HD-103	● Laura BuddINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-104	● Brandon LoftonINC● Trina Boyd	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.3D+27.4	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-105D flipD flip	● Ken McCool● Tricia CothamINC	78%22% 80%20%	D+5.5D+8.0	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-106	● Rodney Sadler● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-107	● Aisha DewINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+63	—
HD-108	● Sydnie Hutchinson● John TorbettINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.8R+24.9	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-109	● Mark Carver● Donnie LoftisINC	8%92% 15%85%	R+10.1R+9.7	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-110	● Mary Silver● Caroline Eason	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.8R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-111	● Jerry Blake● Paul ScottINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+42.9	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-112	● Jordan LopezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+56	—
HD-113	● Mason Rhodes● Jake JohnsonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.5R+26.3	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-114	● Eric AgerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-115Flip risk	● Lindsey PratherINC● Anthony Penland	90%10% 59%41%	D+10.4D+2.3	Likely DToss-up	R+4	—
HD-116	● Brian TurnerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+61	—
HD-117	● Lynne Russo● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	R+14	—
HD-118	● Danny Davis● Jimmy Rogers	9%91% 3%97%	R+11.0R+19.0	Likely RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-119	● Mark Burrows● Anna FergusonINC	25%75% 23%77%	R+4.7R+6.7	Lean RLean R	R+13	—
HD-120	● Caleb Brown● Karl GillespieINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+44.0	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).