Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.
Alabama · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Alabama House of Representatives?
All 105 seats are on the ballot. 53 seats make a majority. 53 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Alabama House of Representatives (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 29.380% range 28–31
- Avg. R seats
- 75.780% range 74–77
- Now
- 29 D · 76 R105 up this year
Republican supermajority now (76 of 105 seats; 53 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
29 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party76 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the Alabama House of Representatives (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 29.580% range 27–32
- Avg. R seats
- 75.580% range 73–78
- Now
- 29 D · 76 R105 up this year
Republican supermajority now (76 of 105 seats; 53 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
29 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party76 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 105 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
No seat is projected to change parties.
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D27
Lean D0
Toss-up0
Lean R1
Solid R72
Show 66 more
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Solid D25
Toss-up1
Lean R1
Solid R70
Show 64 more
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Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Alabama
Birmingham
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Most likely to flip
HD-25Allison MontgomeryPhillip RigsbyFlip risk37%to flip52%to flip HD-32Debra FosterJoey Callahan15%to flip28%to flip HD-68Thomas JacksonFred Kelley12%to flip27%to flip HD-47Jim ToomeyMike Shaw9%to flip20%to flip HD-63Judith TaylorNorman Crow7%to flip16%to flip HD-15Nell BrownLeigh Hulsey6%to flip16%to flip HD-10Marilyn LandsAaron Thomas5%to flip19%to flip HD-85Aristotle Onassis KirklandRick Rehm3%to flip4%to flip HD-28Robert HunterMack Butler1%to flip6%to flip HD-69Kelvin LawrenceJosh Pendergrass1%to flip6%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
105 races, 72 without a contest between the major parties.
105 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1 | ● No Democrat● Phillip PettusINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+47 | — | |
| HD-2 | ● Rick Pressnell● Ben HarrisonINC | R+51.2R+61.3 | R+66 | — | ||
| HD-3 | ● No Democrat● Kerry UnderwoodINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+30 | — | |
| HD-4 | ● Hanu Karlapalem● Parker MooreINC | R+25.8R+26.9 | R+33 | — | ||
| HD-5 | ● Jessie Barcala● Danny CrawfordINC | R+36.0R+39.6 | R+45 | — | ||
| HD-6 | ● No Democrat● Andy WhittINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+30 | — | |
| HD-7 | ● No Democrat● Ernie YarbroughINCAlso: Trent Ford (I), Doc Mancuso (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+56 | — | |
| HD-8 | ● Bruce Sparkman● Patrick Johnson | R+24.0R+21.8 | R+27 | — | ||
| HD-9 | ● No Democrat● Scott StadthagenINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+72 | — | |
| HD-10 | ● Marilyn LandsINC● Aaron Thomas | D+14.0D+8.3 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-11 | ● No Democrat● Heath AllbrightINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+82 | — | |
| HD-12 | ● No Democrat● Cindy MyrexINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+79 | — | |
| HD-13 | ● No Democrat● Mike Elliott | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+71 | — | |
| HD-14 | ● No Democrat● Tim WadsworthINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+81 | — | |
| HD-15 | ● Nell Brown● Leigh HulseyINC | R+11.7R+9.7 | R+16 | — | ||
| HD-16 | ● Christian Martin● Bryan BrinyarkINC | R+59.1R+71.3 | R+76 | — | ||
| HD-17 | ● No Democrat● Phil Segraves | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+79 | — | |
| HD-18 | ● No Democrat● Jamie KielINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+70 | — | |
| HD-19 | ● Laura HallINC● Donald Barnes | D+42.8D+40.6 | D+35 | — | ||
| HD-20 | ● James Linderholm● James LomaxINC | R+21.7R+18.2 | R+25 | — | ||
| HD-21 | ● Forrest Satterfield● Rex ReynoldsINC | R+19.5R+15.7 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-22 | ● No Democrat● Ritchie WhortonINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+50 | — | |
| HD-23 | ● No Democrat● Mike KirklandINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+71 | — | |
| HD-24 | ● No Democrat● Nathaniel LedbetterINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+73 | — | |
| HD-25Flip risk | ● Allison Montgomery● Phillip RigsbyINC | R+2.4D+0.6 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-26 | ● No Democrat● Brock ColvinINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+72 | — | |
| HD-27 | ● No Democrat● Jeana RossINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+71 | — | |
| HD-28 | ● Robert Hunter● Mack ButlerINC | R+18.8R+15.6 | R+21 | — | ||
| HD-29 | ● No Democrat● Mark GidleyINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+74 | — | |
| HD-30 | ● No Democrat● Craig LipscombINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+76 | — | |
| HD-31 | ● No Democrat● Troy StubbsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+60 | — | |
| HD-32 | ● Debra Foster● Joey Callahan | D+7.7D+5.6 | Even | — | ||
| HD-33 | ● No Democrat● Ben RobbinsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+36 | — | |
| HD-34 | ● No Democrat● David StandridgeINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+81 | — | |
| HD-35 | ● No Democrat● Steve HurstINCAlso: Joseph Cleveland (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+57 | — | |
| HD-36 | ● No Democrat● Randy WoodINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+48 | — | |
| HD-37 | ● Michelle French● John Jacobs | R+35.0R+38.8 | R+44 | — | ||
| HD-38 | ● Hazel Floyd● Kristin NelsonINC | R+33.7R+36.9 | R+42 | — | ||
| HD-39 | ● No Democrat● Ginny ShaverINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+75 | — | |
| HD-40 | ● Pam Howard● Chad RobertsonINC | R+50.0R+57.8 | R+62 | — | ||
| HD-41 | ● David Morgan● Corley EllisINC | R+36.5R+41.9 | R+47 | — | ||
| HD-42 | ● No Democrat● Ivan SmithINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+71 | — | |
| HD-43 | ● Taylor Cook● Arnold MooneyINC | R+35.6R+37.2 | R+43 | — | ||
| HD-44 | ● No Democrat● Danny GarrettINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+29 | — | |
| HD-45 | ● Tony Kornegay Vaughn● Susan DuBoseINC | R+35.2R+37.8 | R+44 | — | ||
| HD-46 | ● No Democrat● David FaulknerINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+19 | — | |
| HD-47 | ● Jim Toomey● Mike ShawINC | R+10.0R+8.1 | R+15 | — | ||
| HD-48 | ● No Democrat● Lloyd Peeples | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+35 | — | |
| HD-49 | ● No Democrat● Russell BedsoleINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+49 | — | |
| HD-50 | ● Alan Thomas● Bill Morris | R+49.3R+57.5 | R+62 | — | ||
| HD-51 | ● No Democrat● Allen TreadawayINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+61 | — | |
| HD-52D vs D | ● GiGi Harris● No RepublicanAlso: LaTanya Millhouse (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+69 | — | |
| HD-53 | ● Anthony DanielsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+46 | — | |
| HD-54 | ● Neil RaffertyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+60 | — | |
| HD-55 | ● Travis HendrixINC● No RepublicanAlso: Keith O. Williams (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+75 | — | |
| HD-56 | ● Ontario TillmanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+46 | — | |
| HD-57 | ● Patrick SellersINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| HD-58 | ● Rolanda HollisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+57 | — | |
| HD-59 | ● Mary MooreINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+67 | — | |
| HD-60 | ● Alicia Escott Lumpkin● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+50 | — | |
| HD-61 | ● No Democrat● Ron BoltonINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+46 | — | |
| HD-62 | ● No Democrat● Bill LambINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+40 | — | |
| HD-63 | ● Judith Taylor● Norman CrowINC | R+11.4R+10.0 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-64 | ● No Democrat● Donna GivensINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+63 | — | |
| HD-65 | ● No Democrat● John KnappAlso: Elaine Beech (I) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+43 | — | |
| HD-66 | ● No Democrat● Alan BakerINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+55 | — | |
| HD-67 | ● Prince ChestnutINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-68 | ● Thomas JacksonINC● Fred Kelley | D+9.5D+6.3 | D+1 | — | ||
| HD-69 | ● Kelvin LawrenceINC● Josh Pendergrass | D+18.8D+15.7 | D+11 | — | ||
| HD-70 | ● Christopher J. EnglandINC● Ian M. Chwatuk | D+46.7D+46.4 | D+41 | — | ||
| HD-71 | ● Artis J. McCampbellINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| HD-72 | ● Curtis L TravisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+11 | — | |
| HD-73 | ● No Democrat● Kenneth PaschalINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+28 | — | |
| HD-74 | ● Jasmyne Crimiel● Alva Lambert | D+30.8D+34.3 | D+28 | — | ||
| HD-75 | ● Tisha Dickson Nickson● Reed IngramINC | R+25.6R+24.4 | R+30 | — | ||
| HD-76 | ● Patrice "Penni" McClammeyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+53 | — | |
| HD-77 | ● Tashina MorrisINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+48 | — | |
| HD-78 | ● Kenyatté HassellINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+40 | — | |
| HD-79 | ● No Democrat● Joe LovvornINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+16 | — | |
| HD-80 | ● Manfred Malone● Chris BlackshearINC | R+29.6R+29.5 | R+34 | — | ||
| HD-81 | ● No Democrat● Ed OliverINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+47 | — | |
| HD-82 | ● Pebblin WarrenINC● Kinsley HammonsAlso: Sidney "Doc" Brown (D) | D+38.1D+36.8 | D+32 | — | ||
| HD-83 | ● Jeremy GrayINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+4 | — | |
| HD-84 | ● Berry ForteINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| HD-85 | ● Aristotle Onassis Kirkland● Rick RehmINC | R+14.6R+18.2 | R+24 | — | ||
| HD-86 | ● No Democrat● Paul LeeINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+57 | — | |
| HD-87 | ● No Democrat● Jeff SorrellsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+72 | — | |
| HD-88 | ● No Democrat● Jerry StarnesINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+40 | — | |
| HD-89 | ● No Democrat● Marcus ParamoreINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+33 | — | |
| HD-90 | ● No Democrat● Chris SellsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+40 | — | |
| HD-91 | ● No Democrat● Jody Linton | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+52 | — | |
| HD-92 | ● No Democrat● Matthew HammettINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+71 | — | |
| HD-93 | ● No Democrat● Steve ClouseINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+49 | — | |
| HD-94 | ● No Democrat● Jennifer FidlerINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+53 | — | |
| HD-95R vs R | ● No Democrat● Frances Holk-JonesINCAlso: Joe Freeman (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+63 | — | |
| HD-96 | ● Terri Osborne● Danielle Duggar | R+36.4R+38.1 | R+44 | — | ||
| HD-97 | ● Adline C. ClarkeINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-98 | ● Napoleon Bracy Jr.INC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+8 | — | |
| HD-99 | ● Sam JonesINC● Charlie Watts | D+39.0D+34.2 | D+28 | — | ||
| HD-100 | ● No Democrat● Mark ShireyINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+42 | — | |
| HD-101 | ● Joan Friedlander● Chris PringleINC | R+24.3R+23.0 | R+29 | — | ||
| HD-102 | ● No Democrat● Shane StringerINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+65 | — | |
| HD-103 | ● Barbara DrummondINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+31 | — | |
| HD-104 | ● No Democrat● Margie WilcoxINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+24 | — | |
| HD-105 | ● No Democrat● Chip BrownINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+55 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.