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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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What's the difference?

Idaho · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Idaho House of Representatives?

All 70 seats are on the ballot. 36 seats make a majority. 47 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Idaho House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
11.280% range 9–14
Avg. R seats
58.880% range 56–61
Now
9 D · 61 R70 up this year

Republican supermajority now (61 of 70 seats; 47 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party61 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Idaho House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
10.680% range 8–14
Avg. R seats
59.480% range 56–62
Now
9 D · 61 R70 up this year

Republican supermajority now (61 of 70 seats; 47 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party61 R now

36 for control
36 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 35 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D1

Toss-up1

Lean R1

Likely R1

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up2

Lean R1

Likely R1

Solid R27

Show 21 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Idaho

Boise

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-26Anita JanisMike PohankaFlip riskFlip risk2 seats60%Rep.54%Rep. LD-29Mary SheaDustin W. Manwaring2 seats75%Rep.78%Rep. LD-15Steve BerchDori HealeyFlip risk2 seats80%Dem.53%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LD-26Anita JanisMike PohankaFlip riskFlip risk2 seats40%to flip46%to flip LD-29Mary SheaDustin W. Manwaring2 seats25%to flip22%to flip LD-15Steve BerchDori HealeyFlip risk2 seats20%to flip53%to flip LD-6Trish Carter- GoodheartBrandon Mitchell2 seats7%to flip10%to flip LD-4Maxwell McSwainJoe Alfieri2 seats1%to flip1%to flip LD-22Loren PettyJason A. Monks2 seats1%to flip2%to flip LD-33Chance MarshallBarbara Ehardt2 seats1%to flip2%to flip LD-21Camille AllanJames Petzke2 seats<1%to flip1%to flip LD-20Jennifer StephensJoe A Palmer2 seats<1%to flip1%to flip LD-11Joshua PremingerKent A. Marmon2 seats<1%to flip1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Two representatives per district

Each of the 35 legislative districts elects two House members, who run for separate seats (A and B). The forecast treats each seat as its own race.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

36 for D control →← R two-thirds5101520253035
36 for D control →← R two-thirds5101520253035

Every race

35 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.

35 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
LD-12 seats
● Karen Matthee● Cornel RasorINCAlso: Jane Sauter (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.9R+43.9Solid RSolid RR+46—
LD-22 seats
● Birgid Niedenzu● Heather ScottINCAlso: Sabine Krier (D), Dale Hawkins (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.7R+59.2Solid RSolid RR+62—
LD-32 seats
● Melissa Mateer● Vito BarbieriINCAlso: Jordan Redman (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.7R+54.1Solid RSolid RR+59—
LD-42 seats
● Maxwell McSwain● Joe AlfieriINCAlso: Aaron Hayes (D), Elaine Price (R)
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.7R+24.5Solid RSolid RR+30—
LD-52 seats
● Mirna Pleines● Ron MendiveINCAlso: Lee Wallace (D), Tony Wisniewski (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.3R+50.7Solid RSolid RR+55—
LD-62 seats
● Trish Carter- Goodheart● Brandon MitchellINCAlso: Colton Bennett (R), Kathy Dawes (D)
7%93%
10%90%
R+11.0R+12.2Likely RLikely RR+15—
LD-72 seats
● Larry Nostrant● Kyle HarrisINCAlso: Pete Gertonson (D), Charlie Shepherd (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.1R+48.7Solid RSolid RR+52—
LD-82 seats
● Jared Dawson● Rob BeiswengerINCAlso: Brian Beckley (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.3R+39.3Solid RSolid RR+42—
LD-92 seats
● Lupita Connor● John C. ShirtsINCAlso: Judy Boyle (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.3R+59.7Solid RSolid RR+63—
LD-102 seats
● Michael Hofferber● Mike MoyleINCAlso: Beth Ann McFalls (D), Bruce D. Skaug (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.1R+54.1Solid RSolid RR+58—
LD-112 seats
● Joshua Preminger● Kent A. MarmonINCAlso: Debbie Geyer (R)
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.0R+27.2Solid RSolid RR+32—
LD-122 seats
● Sterling Barnett● Jeff CornillesINCAlso: Curtis James (D), Jaron Crane (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.1R+34.8Solid RSolid RR+39—
LD-132 seats
● Cliff Hohman● Brent J CraneINCAlso: Cody Gorman (D), Steven Tanner (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.5R+35.7Solid RSolid RR+40—
LD-142 seats
● Jo Daly● Ted HillINCAlso: Valerie Ruxton (D), Josh Tanner (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.3R+44.4Solid RSolid RR+48—
LD-15Flip risk2 seats
● Steve BerchINC● Dori HealeyAlso: Steve Keyser (R), Jae Etchart (D)
80%20%
47%53%
D+6.1R+0.7Lean DToss-upR+5—
LD-162 seats
● Annie HawsINC● Jackie DavidsonAlso: Megan Woller (D), Chandler Stewart Hadraba (R)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.4D+24.1Solid DSolid DD+20—
LD-172 seats
● John GannonINC● James R NechwedowichAlso: Megan Egbert (D), Justin Alexander Peter Hughes (R)
>99%<1%
96%4%
D+24.9D+18.8Solid DSolid DD+14—
LD-18D vs D2 seats
● Ilana RubelINC● No RepublicanAlso: Brooke Green (D), Joseph Bishop (L)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+24—
LD-192 seats
● Monica C. ChurchINC● Bryan HopkinsAlso: Chris Mathias (D), Stanley Roach (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.4D+38.8Solid DSolid DD+35—
LD-202 seats
● Jennifer Stephens● Joe A PalmerINCAlso: Mary A Mosley (D), James D. Holtzclaw (R)
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.8R+27.3Solid RSolid RR+32—
LD-212 seats
● Camille Allan● James PetzkeINCAlso: Casey Hess (D), Jeff Ehlers (R)
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.0R+25.4Solid RSolid RR+30—
LD-222 seats
● Loren Petty● Jason A. MonksINCAlso: Kelly Walton (R), Amanda Easley (D)
1%99%
2%99%
R+20.4R+23.2Solid RSolid RR+28—
LD-232 seats
● Emily Fisher● Chris BruceINCAlso: Joe Fuller (D), Shawn R Dygert (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.0R+52.6Solid RSolid RR+57—
LD-242 seats
● Enrique Salas Viernes● Clint HostetlerINCAlso: Chance Requa (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.6R+58.3Solid RSolid RR+62—
LD-252 seats
● Marla Palmer● Grayson StoneAlso: Cherie Vollmer (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.0R+33.6Solid RSolid RR+38—
LD-26Flip riskFlip risk2 seats
● Anita Janis● Mike PohankaINCAlso: Kevin Marsh (D), Lyle Johnstone (R)
40%60%
46%54%
R+1.8R+1.0Toss-upToss-upR+4—
LD-27R vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Douglas T PickettINCAlso: Clay Handy (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+69—
LD-282 seats
● Kim Jackman● Richard (Rick) CheatumINCAlso: Jayson Meline (D), Dan Garner (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.7R+46.5Solid RSolid RR+51—
LD-292 seats
● Mary Shea● Dustin W. ManwaringINCAlso: Nate Roberts (D), Jennifer Miles (R)
25%75%
22%78%
R+4.8R+7.3Lean RLean RR+12—
LD-302 seats
● Bree Buckingham● David CannonINCAlso: Ben G. Fuhriman (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.3R+58.0Solid RSolid RR+61—
LD-312 seats
● Kindsey Smith● Jerald Dallas RaymondINCAlso: Wendy Norman (D), Rod Furniss (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+57.2R+67.1Solid RSolid RR+71—
LD-322 seats
● Kamber Weninger● Stephanie MickelsenINCAlso: Erin Bingham (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.7R+44.4Solid RSolid RR+51—
LD-332 seats
● Chance Marshall● Barbara EhardtINCAlso: Todd DeVries (D), Marco Erickson (R)
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.9R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+30—
LD-34R vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Jon O WeberINCAlso: Britt Raybould (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+67—
LD-352 seats
● Walter Boyd● Mike VeileINCAlso: Mary Kaufman (D), Joshua D. Wheeler (R)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.0R+47.2Solid RSolid RR+51—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.