Democratic
Hallie Shoffner
Farmer and entrepreneur
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.7M
- From individuals
- $3.6M
- Spent
- $2.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arkansas › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Arkansas
Cotton is very likely to win: Cotton wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Shoffner (D)
5%
chance of winning
Cotton (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- 5in our database
Cotton is clearly favored to win: Cotton wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Shoffner (D)
6%
chance of winning
Cotton (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom Cotton
Incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $7.6M
- Cash on hand
- $6.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -32.88 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shoffner | Cotton | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouseR-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 550 LV | 39 | 50 | R+11 | R+8.7 |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 14–Aug 18 | 803 LV | 35 | 51 | R+16 | R+14.7 |
| Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics | Aug 11–Aug 12 | 1,217 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+1.4 |
| 2040 Strategy Group for Shoffner's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 17–Jul 25 | 586 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | R+7.7 |
| GrayHouse for America One PoliciesR-sponsored | Feb 7–Feb 9 | 550 LV | 36 | 58 | R+22 | R+14.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.
The state
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,049,391
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,156,146 two-party votes · R+31.3 · R+29.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.7%
Kamala Harris (D)34.3%
2020
1,193,261 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Cotton (R)66.5%
Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)33.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,184,579 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Joe Biden (D)35.8%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,065,366 two-party votes · R+28.6 · R+30.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.7%
2014
847,000 votes · R+17.8✓ Tom Cotton (R)56.5%
Mark L. Pryor (D)39.5%
Nathan Lafrance (L)2.0%
Mark H. Swaney (G)2.0%
2008
1,011,754 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark L. Pryor (D)79.5%
Rebekah Kennedy (G)20.5%
2002
804,121 votes · D+7.8✓ Mark Pryor (D)53.9%
Tim Hutchinson (R)46.1%