Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts State Senate: Worcester and Hampshire District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Teabo (D)
52%
chance of winning
Durant (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Teabo is favored to win: Teabo wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Teabo (D)
77%
chance of winning
Durant (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Peter Durant
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -16.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -16.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 174,430
- People per km²
- 109
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
89,811 votes · R+16.8✓ Peter J Durant (R)58.4%
Sheila H Dibb (D)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
91,272 two-party votes · D+0.3 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2022
65,158 votes · D+8.7✓ Anne M Gobi (D)54.3%
James Anthony Amorello (R)45.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
90,930 two-party votes · D+7.0 · D+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
77,346 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
First WorcesterRobyn Kennedy—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. Hampden-Hampshire-WorcesterJacob Oliveira—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. Hampshire-Franklin-Worcester——TBD>99%Dem.>99%Dem. Second WorcesterMichael O. Moore—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. Worcester and Hampden—Ryan Fattman>99%Rep.>99%Rep. Worcester and MiddlesexJohn Cronin—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.