Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Montana › Montana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana State Senate District 42
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Dunwell (D)
48%
chance of winning
Lapraim (R)
52%
- Average margin
- R+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (83%).
Lapraim is clearly favored to win: Lapraim wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Dunwell (D)
17%
chance of winning
Lapraim (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+9.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Mary Ann Dunwell
Incumbent senator
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Stephen Lapraim
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 20,708
- People per km²
- 21
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
13,333 two-party votes · R+13.5 · R+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
9,174 votes · D+10.6✓ Mary Ann Dunwell (D)55.3%
Matt Olson (R)44.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,212 two-party votes · R+6.8 · R+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Joe Biden (D)46.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
9,736 votes · D+14.1✓ Jill Cohenour (D)57.1%
Bob Leach (R)42.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,674 two-party votes · R+9.0 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
7,479 votes · D+7.7✓ Jill Cohenour (D)53.9%
Joe Dooling (R)46.1%