Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 20th Middlesex District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (85%).
Markey is clearly favored to win: Markey wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Markey (D)
85%
chance of winning
Currier (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (91%).
Markey is clearly favored to win: Markey wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Markey (D)
91%
chance of winning
Currier (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Trevor Currier
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 50,457
- People per km²
- 473
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,140 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bradley H Jones Jr (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
27,919 two-party votes · D+6.5 · D+8.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2022
16,356 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bradley H Jones Jr (R)99.0%
Writein (—)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,559 votes · R+27.9✓ Bradley H Jones Jr (R)63.9%
Michelle Mullet (D)36.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,988 two-party votes · D+12.6 · D+8.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,928 two-party votes · D+2.0 · R+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%