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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 100
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Ferguson (D)
49%
chance of winning
Anijar (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Ferguson (D)
46%
chance of winning
Anijar (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Michael Terence Ferguson
Republican
Yoni Anijar
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 173,336
- People per km²
- 752
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 9%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
95,099 votes · R+14.8✓ Chip LaMarca (R)57.4%
James "Jim" Brenner (D)42.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
97,725 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Kamala Harris (D)46.1%
2022
74,659 votes · R+14.3✓ Chip Lamarca (R)57.1%
Linda Thompson Gonzalez (D)42.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
102,656 two-party votes · D+0.5 · R+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
87,671 two-party votes · R+0.6 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
33,156 votes · D+22.3✓ Joseph S Geller (D)59.3%
Martin A Feigenbaum (R)37.6%
Omar E Recuero (L)3.1%