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Florida › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida Treasurer
Ingoglia is clearly favored to win: Ingoglia wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Taddeo (D)
20%
chance of winning
Ingoglia (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ingoglia is favored to win: Ingoglia wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Taddeo (D)
36%
chance of winning
Ingoglia (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Annette Taddeo
Former state senator from the 40th district (2017–2022), nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014, nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district in 2022, and nominee for Miami-Dade County Clerk in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanIncumbent
Blaise Ingoglia
Incumbent chief financial officer (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,416,077
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 27%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
10,793,163 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
10,965,776 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Joe Biden (D)48.3%
2016 President Vote in this state
9,122,861 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%