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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 93
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Mangeney is favored to win: Mangeney wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Mangeney (D)
77%
chance of winning
Gerwig (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Mangeney is favored to win: Mangeney wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Mangeney (D)
77%
chance of winning
Gerwig (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
August Mangeney
RepublicanIncumbent
Anne Gerwig
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.19 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 212,412
- People per km²
- 858
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 17%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
91,558 votes · R+0.4✓ Anne Gerwig (R)50.2%
Katherine Waldron (D)49.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
93,625 two-party votes · D+1.0 · D+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2022
66,790 votes · D+1.3✓ Katherine M Waldron (D)50.6%
Saulis Banionis (R)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
98,832 votes · R+10.5✓ Chip Lamarca (R)55.2%
Linda Thompson Gonzalez (D)44.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
97,108 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.3%
Donald Trump (R)44.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
81,321 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+9.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%