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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 101
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Delmay is favored to win: Delmay wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Delmay (D)
80%
chance of winning
Cassel (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
Delmay is favored to win: Delmay wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Delmay (D)
72%
chance of winning
Cassel (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Todd Delmay
Executive Director of Safeguarding American Values for Everyone (SAVE)
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanIncumbent
Hillary Cassel
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.58 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 182,351
- People per km²
- 939
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 40%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 12%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
70,090 two-party votes · R+2.6 · R+1.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Kamala Harris (D)48.7%
2022
46,487 votes · D+7.5✓ Hillary Cassel (D)53.7%
Guy Silla (R)46.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
69,157 votes · D+48.1✓ Marie Woodson (D)74.1%
Vincent Parlatore (R)25.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
78,414 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.2%
Donald Trump (R)42.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
66,117 two-party votes · D+23.9 · D+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
HD-99Daryl Nevroy Campbell—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-100Michael Terence FergusonYoni AnijarFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Rep. HD-102Michael Mike FriendMery Lopez-Palma94%Dem.88%Dem. HD-104Felicia Simone Robinson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-105Marie Woodson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-106—Fabián BasabeR vs R>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-107Wallace Aristide—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.