Democratic
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 9
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
45%
chance of winning
Ricciardi (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
55%
chance of winning
Ricciardi (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Denise Ricciardi
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.45 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 57,746
- People per km²
- 56
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
33,471 votes · R+3.1✓ Denise Ricciardi (R)51.5%
Matthew McLaughlin (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,075 two-party votes · R+0.9 · D+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
52,394 votes · R+4.5✓ Denise Ricciardi (R)52.2%
Matthew McLaughlin (D)47.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
35,455 votes · R+1.2✓ Denise Ricciardi (R)50.5%
Jeanne Dietsch (D)49.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
33,429 two-party votes · D+2.6 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
28,805 two-party votes · R+4.4 · R+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.8%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
SD-8David TrumbleJim Creighton90%Rep.82%Rep. SD-10Donovan Fenton—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-11Shannon E. ChandleyTim McGoughD flipD flip82%Dem.82%Dem. SD-12Carryl RoyKevin AvardFlip riskD flip58%Dem.73%Dem. SD-16Dian McCarthyKeith Murphy79%Rep.70%Rep. SD-18Leonard BellVictoria SullivanD flipD flip67%Dem.81%Dem. SD-20Pat LongPatrick Binder99%Dem.93%Dem.